What do you think about the supposed international economical crisis ?

Hi,

I'm not the kind of one who's really informed about what's going on in the world. Let's say I have my deep own beliefs in politics and in the way humans should live together but I got tired every time I'm informing myself about politics, economy or whatever. In one hand, I can't really deal with the fact the information I'm reading is somewhat unilateral, and in the other hand, the information itself just makes me "fuck it, things always happen the same way".

Anyway, some friends of mine recently told me about a supposed international crisis, who take its roots in the 2008 financial crisis. Their point is both interesting and scary, but it hadn't a great impact on me. The fact is I listened to them with attention and kind of believed them, but you know, after all it was just a conversation with friends beers and joints.

Yesterday evening, a acquaintance of mine posted a video on Facebook, which is an interview with a French journalist, Pierre Jovanovic, who just wrote a book about Blythe Masters (a name which I don't think I've ever heard before) and the international financial crisis.

I don't know if my English level combined with my knowledge in economy will be sufficient to explain you what I retained from the point of this man during the interview, but I'll manage to synthesize it anyway for the good of thread.

So my simplified synthesis of Jovanovic theory is that since 2008 crisis, which was apparently just temporary (at least that's what have been said in the media), banks and insurers are progressively falling down one after the other, because they all are linked by insurance contracts. Indeed, when a bank make a loan for someone who then can't give the money back, that bank is covered by an insurer, which is covered himself by another one, etc... So in 2008 the banks and insurers at the bottom of that "network" went broke, and since that year, the "epidemy" is spreading from a country to another, and it recently reached Greece.

Bankers that understood that are now buying raw materials, and that's what explains why food and other things you buy at the supermarket are always getting more expensive. But these prices are going to reach an unacceptable level, and then a revolution should occur from the people. Because obviously, people who effectively have the money won't be bothered to buy food.

The other possible (and predicted) issue is that the different money currencies could just sink one after the other, and there's no guaranty that one is going to remain (internationalization wise ; well, maybe China will be able to bring a new standard or something).

Ok... this has been written quite quick and once more, this is just a synthesis of what I understood, which could be inexact and which is actually higly simplified. Also, I could just be the victim of a buzz : I guess my lack of knowledge in economy could make me believe a lot of bullshit if it's told with enough "arguments".

But I don't know, a part of me want to believe that stuff and to know more. So, if you had the courage to read the whole stuff, do you have any point on that subject ?

let's debate !

(my longer post ever I think)

PS : if a part of what I said there is wrong or inexact, just tell it !

i probably have the most dour and pessimistic view of this on the board....so the grief..it doesn't look good.

I thought that was pretty well explained. It was more coherent than most native English speakers here.

I got pretty into this whole economic collapse thing a couple of years ago. But then I got a job and now I'm too blinkered by having to actually earn money and pay for shit to follow what's supposedly happening anymore. All I know is that if there's a revolution and we all throw our money away and commit to a sustainable life of farming, fighting and fucking, well them I'm in.

I thought the problem was that the banks/insurers aren't covered by other insurers, which is why governments are having to fund them to keep them afloat. I'm sure there can't be an endless string of people insuring other people. I don't understand economonomics

Shit. I know shit's bad right now, with all that starving bullshit, and the dust storms, and we are running out of french fries and burrito coverings. But I got a solution.

Now I understand everyone's shit's emotional right now. But I've got a 3 point plan that's going to fix EVERYTHING.

Are we witnessing the start of a systemic failure of capitalism, which in itself is inherently flawed? I don't know, but the trends are worrying no matter what happens.

We might witness things people will remember for centuries. Like the start of a new world order or something.

Or it might just go from shitty to stupid shitty and end up so shitty we'll all die and nobody will remember shit.

I'm already well on my way to living in a shack out in the woods & hunting small animals for food so really it will be no biggie to me either way.

  On 7/13/2011 at 5:42 PM, gaarg said:

We might witness things people will remember for centuries. Like the start of a new world order or something.

 

Or it might just go from shitty to stupid shitty and end up so shitty we'll all die and nobody will remember shit.

my moneys on the latter. those in power don't want a revolution, and for that reason alone it won't happen. people will buy up any stupid shit you tell them, they would be easily divided in many peoples naive revolution scenarios.

Quadrillion dollar debt for the US. What does it matter anyway? It's all just numbers moving around in computers.

  On 7/13/2011 at 4:51 PM, azatoth said:

Are we witnessing the start of a systemic failure of capitalism, which in itself is inherently flawed? I don't know, but the trends are worrying no matter what happens.

there's nothing more I need to say

  On 7/13/2011 at 4:12 PM, Coalbucket PI said:

I thought the problem was that the banks/insurers aren't covered by other insurers, which is why governments are having to fund them to keep them afloat. I'm sure there can't be an endless string of people insuring other people. I don't understand economonomics

No, it was more a game of pass the parcel, where nobody is quite sure who has the parcel, i.e. ultimately who has to cover the toxic debt (principally shitty mortgages in 2007/08). Hence the credit crisis, banks and other institutions were unwilling to lend to each other because they didn't know what or where the liabilities were. The issue has come up again with the EU crisis because government bonds will be insured, so if Greece or someone else defaults, the shit hits the fan once again and the contagion spreads. That's a gross simplification and only one factor in the current EU crisis.

If these econcomic pressures were happening at any other point in history we'd be on our way to a major war. It could still happen.

don't you guys get it, it's the terrorists that are the problem

duhdudhhdderdpdper

it's all fine imo

The gay immigrant terrorists that want to abort your babies.

It's been all over the news today that Italia might see a economic collapse in a near futre. Which is something that's going to affect the rest of europe. Seems like all europaen countries economics is going to hell.

Also i just read this, might be a little pessimistic, but I think it's true:

  Quote

The U.S. economy is dying and we are heading for the next Great Depression. The talking heads in the mainstream media love to spin the economic numbers around and around and they love to make it sound like the economy is improving, but the truth is that it doesn't take a genius to see what is happening to the U.S. economic system.

Hate to be such a pessimist/doomsday prophet. But I don't think we're facing a bright future at all. But i don't know enough about economics to be acting clever and predicting future.

It's only the greasy wops in the south who can't balance they checkbook and the inbred gingers of Ireland and they are going to pull the rest of the Eurozone down with them, those fuckers.

Nah, but it's the greedy banks and the speculators. Ever since markets started trading in futures and commodities it all went to hell. For the brokers it's all numbers on the monitor, but they fail to understand that what they do in their cushy office on Wall St. and other financial centers around the world has a real world effect. The food shortage a couple of years ago was a direct result of some speculators jacking the price of grain up to earn some extra cash.

Businessmen and CEOs lack empathy - this shouldn't come as a surprise of course.

Sometimes I wonder what it will take for the modern taxpayer to take matters into their own hands the only effective way they can. Governments bailing out banks with billions of taxpayer dollars, so that bankers can they give themselves multimillion dollar bonuses? That is a sickening concept. At what stage is it acceptable for people to take action and start stringing up the greedy pigs?

The upper 5% in America have accumulated more wealth since 1985 than the ENTIRE HUMAN RACE HAS CREATED prior to then. $40 Trillion. This is according to David Stockman, former budget director for president Ronald Reagan.

in all seriousness, now would be a perfect time for the return of Christ on earth.

I don't really understand economics but it seems like Greece can`t pay their debts so they have to default (fuck the banks we won't pay) but then the bankers / politicians are afraid Italy, Spain, and other European countries are going to ask for the same treatment and what they call the markets will go crazy because no one really knows where the actual money is and then the entire universe will implode? Argentina did the same thing years ago and they seem OK. But then, how would I know if the same logic applies here.

I think this good reading on the subject.

From the London Review of Books