complex probability calculations involving an insurance agent

This morning, I had to shit chicken madras out of my ass twice already. Each time, my doorbell rang. After hurriedly wiping and washing, I ran down stairs to discover each time the same insurance agent was at the door. I need to figure out a complex probability calculation involving the frequency of my doorbell ringing (not very often, say 2-3 times a week), the frequency of my BMs (again, sadly, not very often lately -- I blame the stuffing), and the chances of the same insurance agent being the doorbell ringer. I then need to show how I pretty much won the lottery today as far as uniqueness of experience. Either that, or I can only conclude that "they know" and this has something to do with 9/11. Any mathematicians out there?

Some study probably concluded that men are emotionally vulnerable with having a movement so it's a good time to approach them about insurance.

(State Farm is watching you poop)

so, +1 for "they know." do I need to check my bathroom for bugs? what about a sensor in my toilet? have you noticed that toilets know when you're still peeing in them after you flush? they must know something about the volume of fluid they're trying to swallow and replace.

my B.I. = 456

oh wait nvm that was for a gay

from my experience they usually go for the smoke detector, behind the mirror, or one of the light fixtures. something they know you won't fidget with too much.

toilets definitely know how much fluid they need.

They do? It that an A.I. thing or is it directly encoded in the physical laws of hustle and flow?

A.I.

it's one of those things that has been in toilets for decades. no one alive is sure how they got to be that way. some sort of natural evolution involving the chemical reaction that occurs when fecal matter touches porcelain.

I would say upwards in the area of 532,891,034 to 1.

You may have weak window seals. The escaping smell attracts them.

Check yo rubber!

thanks and yeah there were definitely spratters involved this morning.

You might have to drill a hole in your unit to relieve pressure. It's rare, but trepanning of the junk producess consistent, reproducible, results.

  Quote

complex probability calculations involving an insurance agent

isn't that a track off windowlicker?

  On 11/30/2011 at 8:17 PM, Fred McGriff said:

thanks and yeah there were definitely spratters involved this morning.

that's what she said!

There's a happy ending to this episode, and in a way, I did hit a bit of a lottery. So back on that day when the insurance agent kept ringing my doorbell when I was on the shitter, the insurance agent eventually ended up on my roof. He was inspecting potential hail damage or something similar. Whilst coming down from the roof, he knocked our side gutter off and the wood panel that the gutter was attached to. He apologized to me and I didn't even so much as flinch, I just said, hey man don't worry about it, it happens. He said that he would send a check to have that fixed. I said, cool, have a great day. We shook hands and concluded our business together.

That day I called my fixer-upper guy, Larry. Larry is this really mild-mannered fixer-upper guy from Minnesota and has a problem with undercharging. He literally relies on people to be like, "dude, you are way undercharging me, here take this extra money." He ends up fixing my roof and charging me 40 bucks for it. I was like, dude, you are way undercharging me. Take this 40 now, and then my insurance guy is going to cut me a check, and you can have the difference. Larry goes, no no, that'd be your money. I said, fine, we'll split the difference. Larry seemed okay with that. Yesterday a check comes in the mail from the insurance guy who kept ringing the doorbell while I was on the shitter. $500. There's no way the damages could have conceivably been estimated that high. I was thinking like $150. So was Larry. So there is an unspoken communication going on here. The insurance guy is saying, hey man, thanks for giving me ZERO shit for fucking your roof up and adding one more problem to your to-do list. Go have a night on the town on me.

Now, the question is: How much money do I kick back to Larry? What does "split the difference" mean? I would like to keep my word and give him $230. My wife is leaning more towards $50 because she likes money better than I do and she is basing it on Larry's expectation of the damages.

i say give larry a night on the town just like the insurance guy gave you. it could be a nice christmas bonus for larry and would keep the karma rolling for you. win-win.

or you could save it for our raucous cheesecake factory romp.

I'm with your wife on this one. After all, how much time did he spend repairing it anyway? an hour? I'd say 90$ for an hour, or even 2 would be more than adequate. You'd make his day just the same.

most IDM thread title 2011

BM: ~9 per week

Insurance salemens ~10,000 in your 100 mile radius.

Number of doorbell ~1

P(insuranceS)=9!*10,000!,1! divided by the amount of times you shat in your life without it happening: ~21,900

Therefore P(insuranceS)/P(notinsuranceS)= 9!*10,000!*1!/21,900!

aproximately ERROR 401

Too much shit.

find the median between keeping enough to enjoy and giving enough to quell your guilt.

i say give Larry an even $100

The insurance agent probably has an actuarial table for exactly this sort of scenario. One needs to know how to minimize the risk of madras-damaged floors from frequent doorbell ringing.

Clearly, then, this is some sort of rogue agent trying to put a wrench into the System.

This thread is becoming very Douglas Adams.

Give Larry 160. That makes it an even 200 for him. You keep the rest to spend on hookers and blow.

My friend came up with a really good solution. As a man of my word, I should offer Larry the full $230 split. However, since he is coming over to fix a leak in my basement soon, I will offer it to him in cash and in person. That way if he can take however much he is comfortable with. He'll probably take another hundy and call it a day. Then I spend the rest on hookers and blow (or the legal version: strippers and pharmaceutical amphetamines).

it's free money. give him $250. unless you're particularly skint.

pay him in commodities: give him $230 worth of pig iron.