Glaring hole in conspiracy theories?

  On 1/29/2012 at 3:03 PM, lumpenprol said:

When I said "UFO cover-ups" I didn't mean to imply there haven't been UFOs. There have most certainly been UFOs (being by definition "unidentified"), and for all I know, some of them were alien in origin. I was referring to the alleged cover-ups: alien bodies being recovered from Roswell, the internet and stealth technology being reverse-engineered from alien craft, pyramids being created by aliens, etc etc...

 

Those are the type of "conspiracy theories" to stay away from (lizard people, nibiru etc.) It's a shame that people believe in stories like that. Stick to what makes sense and what is credible.

  On 1/29/2012 at 2:57 PM, Freak of the week said:

  On 1/29/2012 at 2:32 PM, RadarJammer said:

  On 1/29/2012 at 12:18 PM, Freak of the week said:

  On 1/29/2012 at 5:55 AM, RadarJammer said:

I have a recurring thought, based on my own assumption that I personally haven't lied about my own unusual experiences. Out of the many millions of people throughout history who have claimed seeing a UFO or something, at least one single person out of that many is telling the truth, isn't crazy and isn't mistaking a cowboy hat someone threw in the air at a Mexican wedding as a flying saucer.

 

If 1 out of 10,000,000 is telling the truth, then its a real phenomena.

 

Not really. There is always a possibility that a person is under influence of some supstance which causes hallucinations, or has a pyschic disorder which causes hallucinations, such as schizophrenia and dissociative identity disorder. What you perceive doesn't neccessarily have to do anything with reality, whatever reality truly is, if there actually is one. That's eventually the "problem" of scepticism - it leaves only suspicion as a fact - you can have your suspicions about anything, but one thing is certain - you are being suspicious. Maybe we're all living in our own delusions, after all, and our delusions are mostly coinciding, but there are parts which never do. That's why the scientist talks always about probabilities, because nothing is really certain. We can only say something is highly, or most probable based upon some data and facts obtained throughout time.

 

There aren't many/any psychotropics that cause literal lucid hallucinations, especially while being in seemingly sobered states of mind. Schizophrenia is mostly an auditory disease and I think it would probably be MORE weird if peoples minds were cracking left and right and hallucinating space ships.

 

My point was about you saying that if at least one (sane) person perceives something, it must be real. Maybe it is "real", "real" meaning of course something our senses tell us, not absolute reality, if that term even has meaning, but there still must be a certain solid evidence to support that, so that others can accept that. Nowadays, as YO303 said already, technology allows us basically to artificially create any imaginable images/videos, and that of course leads to the uninevitable tide of scepticism among people. Then there's also a plenty of possible explanations which can explain something without needing to use terms such as aliens and UFOs, such as military/government experiments with unusually shaped vehicles. Then there are strange atmospheric phenomena, such as ball lightning, just as there are incredible types of clouds which sometimes really look like something otherworldy, but can be explained with possibly quite complex fluid mechanics of atmosphere etc. One good example: Undulatus asperatus.

 

Although nowadays conspiracists are seen mostly as fools/lunatics/etc., there still is a certain logic in they behaviour, because in modern times people are

being controlled and monitored more and more, and looking from that aspect, there's a certain logic in their attitude.

 

I just think the numbers speak for themselves, the people who have claimed sightings are a sample of people from the entire species of human kind, not a subgroup like a religion or cult which has inherent flaws and incredulity. The "sane" people include tons of public figures who are considered to have their shit together like pilots, policemen, politicians, astronauts, and even presidents and other people in high places. These "claims' more often than not come without strings attached, without pictures, videos, book deals or 15 minutes of fame. Of course my theory of odds isn't science based but based on my underlying faith that there is enough grains of genuine honesty and reality (not hallucinating) in the human condition to easily cover the sample of people having related a personal story like this. After all, we are about to be doing the same thing to other planets in due time so whats so unusual about it to begin with.

just remember 2 things:

1) they can be UFOs and not alien in origin

2) eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable, and not intentionally so

To me it's not even slightly unbelievable that if we ever DID find a crashed UFO with dead aliens in it that the public would never hear of it.

 

So imo Roswell could have happened. What's so unbelievable about it?

while I agree it's not impossible, I think it's improbable due to the fact that, over time, things leak. Whether it was those guys in Canada sending up satellites to film the Russians, or J Edgar Hoover dressing up in women's clothing. The truth will out.

 

I would like nothing more than to believe aliens did crash land on earth though, which is another reason I'm skeptical. Like most conspiracy theorists, I also feel the seductive pull of dramatic fantasies. Unfortunately life is usually more mundane.

  On 1/29/2012 at 3:25 PM, RadarJammer said:

Of course my theory of odds isn't science based but based on my underlying faith that there is enough grains of genuine honesty and reality (not hallucinating) in the human condition to easily cover the sample of people having related a personal story like this.

 

I can understand your attitude, but still, in my opinion, we should try to be scientific as much as possible. I look on a Science as a way to escape

from subjectivity and go as much as possible into objectivity. Sure, subjective experience is something of incredible value for the one who experienced/experiences it, but, in my opinion, we all need to try to speak in language in which we can objectively describe phenomena and be able to agree with our conclusions - that language is Science. Faith is a good thing, perhaps, but I prefer Science.

  Quote

Out of the many millions of people throughout history who have claimed seeing a UFO or something, at least one single person out of that many is telling the truth, isn't crazy and isn't mistaking a cowboy hat someone threw in the air at a Mexican wedding as a flying saucer.

 

Millions? How many have there been? Millions? U sure?

 

Also, following your reasoning, out of all people who believe they are the reincarnation of Mozart ("those millions") surely one of them must be telling the truth. Pure statistics no?

 

No indeed.

 

A more interesting question might be: out of all acknowledged possible delusions people suffer from on a regular basis, is the stereotypical believe in UFO's significantly different in terms of frequency? Note, I'm not saying it's a delusion. I'm only asking whether it's different from a statistical point of view.

 

And since were so hungry for statistics: if so many people believe in a God, at least one of them must be right, right?

 

So, between the lines, my point is: what an awkward argument this is...

Edited January 29, 2012 by goDel

  On 1/29/2012 at 3:38 PM, lumpenprol said:

while I agree it's not impossible, I think it's improbable due to the fact that, over time, things leak.

 

Things DO leak though. No-one believes them. And around we go.

ok, what leaked that you think is credible? "Alien autopsy"?

-

Edited February 15, 2016 by HoA

  On 1/29/2012 at 3:38 PM, lumpenprol said:

I would like nothing more than to believe aliens did crash land on earth though, which is another reason I'm skeptical. Like most conspiracy theorists, I also feel the seductive pull of dramatic fantasies. Unfortunately life is usually more mundane.

 

Life actually isn't mundane at all! The maddest thing you have ever heard actually really did happen and it's staring you right in the face when you shave in the morning. On a planet sitting in the middle of an ocean of nothingness, almost nothing occured for an unbelievably long stretch of time but eventually creatures evolved who could communicate with each other via holes in the front of their heads and are somehow able to manipulate their environment to the point where they actually are beginning to take over the evolutionary process itself.

 

Nothing we ever talk about will be more insane than this.

 

 

edit. here's a leak http://arstechnica.com/civis/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=200294

Edited January 29, 2012 by Rambo

Either way it doesn't matter about Roswell. There is a larger picture. There's something about a certain kind of persons automatic response to conspiracy theories that has always bugged me.

well there is something about a certain kind of person's credulity that has always bugged me. So as you say, there we are.

 

By the way several of the comments in that ars technica link sum it up better than I have.

  Quote

A more interesting question might be: out of all acknowledged possible delusions people suffer from on a regular basis, is the stereotypical believe in UFO's significantly different in terms of frequency? Note, I'm not saying it's a delusion. I'm only asking whether it's different from a statistical point of view.

 

I would be interested to hear about common widespread delusions that are based around isolated events of direct input to the 5 senses such as a sighting of something.

 

 

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Also, following your reasoning, out of all people who believe they are the reincarnation of Mozart ("those millions") surely one of them must be telling the truth. Pure statistics no?

 

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And since were so hungry for statistics: if so many people believe in a God, at least one of them must be right, right?

 

If you look down and see a carrot then you most likely saw a carrot and likewise if you look up and see a flying saucer or low hovering black triangle then you probably saw a strange craft of some kind but if you have a hunch about god or the reincarnation of Elvis then that is a hunch and isn't really quantifiable as a direct experience in most cases and probably will never be something that the psyche can commit to believing 100% so I would put that sort of thing squarely outside of the realm of this subject or related statistics.

 

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Millions? How many have there been? Millions? U sure?

 

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According to the first United Nations international statistics report on the UFO phenomena in 1978, five percent of all Americans, more than fifteen million people, claimed to have seen a UFO. The UFO statistics registered only 1.2 percent of these cases. Then, a USA Gallop poll in 1996 showed the number jumped dramatically to 12%

(roughly thirty-six million citizens specifically in the United States)

of people who claimed to have seen a UFO. The Global number was then added up to about 50,000,000

(million)

people.

  On 1/29/2012 at 4:17 PM, lumpenprol said:

well there is something about a certain kind of person's credulity that has always bugged me. So as you say, there we are.

 

 

AND ME, though. But the thing is, people like myself - who are quite rare - have to tolerate BOTH SIDES.

  On 1/29/2012 at 4:40 PM, RadarJammer said:

  Quote

A more interesting question might be: out of all acknowledged possible delusions people suffer from on a regular basis, is the stereotypical believe in UFO's significantly different in terms of frequency? Note, I'm not saying it's a delusion. I'm only asking whether it's different from a statistical point of view.

 

I would be interested to hear about common widespread delusions that are based around isolated events of direct input to the 5 senses such as a sighting of something.

 

 

  Quote

Also, following your reasoning, out of all people who believe they are the reincarnation of Mozart ("those millions") surely one of them must be telling the truth. Pure statistics no?

 

  Quote

And since were so hungry for statistics: if so many people believe in a God, at least one of them must be right, right?

 

If you look down and see a carrot then you most likely saw a carrot and likewise if you look up and see a flying saucer or low hovering black triangle then you probably saw a strange craft of some kind but if you have a hunch about god or the reincarnation of Elvis then that is a hunch and isn't really quantifiable as a direct experience in most cases and probably will never be something that the psyche can commit to believing 100% so I would put that sort of thing squarely outside of the realm of this subject or related statistics.

 

  Quote

Millions? How many have there been? Millions? U sure?

 

  Quote

According to the first United Nations international statistics report on the UFO phenomena in 1978, five percent of all Americans, more than fifteen million people, claimed to have seen a UFO. The UFO statistics registered only 1.2 percent of these cases. Then, a USA Gallop poll in 1996 showed the number jumped dramatically to 12%

(roughly thirty-six million citizens specifically in the United States)

of people who claimed to have seen a UFO. The Global number was then added up to about 50,000,000

(million)

people.

Thanks for taking the time and all. And I'll go through your points one by one. But seriously, you're taking this way too serious.

 

Common widespread delusions: ever heard of a fata morgana? Or not delusional per se, but conceptually close are those illusionist shows like making the statue of liberty disappear. Difference being that people know it isn't true what they're seeing.

 

Next the difference between a hunch and an experience. It's all definition, semantics and different point of views really. There are lots of people who experience their belief as quite more than a hunch. So, taken in that direction, this discussion will be pointless rather fast.

Personally, I'm really sceptic about experiences in the first place. And in the examples where a number of people have a shared experience of something they believe to be a UFO, well, that's nice, but I wouldn't hold it for proof of Aliens visiting this earth. Unidentified objects in the sky, sure. But that's not really the point, isn't it? There are lots of things happening which, without the proper knowledge, can mean just about anything.

 

And 50 mln is pretty worrying. But what do you make of the fact than more than half of them are Americans? What do you make of that? Are aliens biased towards America?

 

And where do you see the people claiming to be abducted? If true, these events are highly isolated (not sure what you mean) and rely very much on senses, if true. Do you believe in abductions?

Read this supposed Stephen Hawkings quote yesterday that went something like "If governments are involved in a cover up, then they are doing a better job at it than they do at everything else"

  On 1/29/2012 at 3:55 PM, Rambo said:

 

 

edit. here's a leak http://arstechnica.c...p?f=23&t=200294

 

Found in that same thread:

 

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Originally posted by Bolero:

It's amazing to me that even after the Air Force has come out and admitted to making up the alien story, to throw the media off the trail that the USAF was launching high altitude balloons to measure for radioactive particles to determine whether or not the Russians had detonated a nuclear weapon, that people still believe in the alien story.

 

didn't know about that, is it true?

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Thanks for taking the time and all. And I'll go through your points one by one. But seriously, you're taking this way too serious.

 

Not sure what you mean by too serious, I'm pretty passionate about it because I saw a something once and now I'm in the club of people who have memories that don't quite match up with the popular version of reality and that's a really strange situation to be in and it really does inspire strong opinions.

 

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Common widespread delusions: ever heard of a fata morgana? Or not delusional per se, but conceptually close are those illusionist shows like making the statue of liberty disappear. Difference being that people know it isn't true what they're seeing.

 

That is fun stuff but its a far cry from people seeing bizarre machines in the sky.

 

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Next the difference between a hunch and an experience. It's all definition, semantics and different point of views really. There are lots of people who experience their belief as quite more than a hunch. So, taken in that direction, this discussion will be pointless rather fast.

Personally, I'm really sceptic about experiences in the first place. And in the examples where a number of people have a shared experience of something they believe to be a UFO, well, that's nice, but I wouldn't hold it for proof of Aliens visiting this earth. Unidentified objects in the sky, sure. But that's not really the point, isn't it? There are lots of things happening which, without the proper knowledge, can mean just about anything.

If these are human's spaceships then I would be just as interested in it if not more, It would have so many implications about our level of technology and the possibilities we have that it would have way more relevance and imoportence to our lives than if it was aliens.

 

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And 50 mln is pretty worrying. But what do you make of the fact than more than half of them are Americans? What do you make of that? Are aliens biased towards America?

 

I don't know, I'm american and I have no idea what it means other than maybe the census was biased towards America or the technology is American or owned by someone who is working close with America or maybe American's like to talk more.

 

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And where do you see the people claiming to be abducted? If true, these events are highly isolated (not sure what you mean) and rely very much on senses, if true. Do you believe in abductions?

 

I don't like the subject very much and haven't given it much thought because of the "look at me look at me I was abducted" type of angle most of those stories seem to have. I think cattle mutilation is more interesting to think about, whether or not its related in any way.

Essines' penis drives a glaring hole through conspiracy theories.

Although I'm pretty sceptical about the whole UFO-thing, I am willing to believe you've experienced something which needs explanation. Obviously I don't share the experience, so it's pretty useless to go there for me.

 

But you have to understand that we live in a world where 5 million people visit a place like Lourdes every year. Where 67 healings have officially been called miraculous by the Roman church. And the 200 million people who have visited that place are probably as passionate as you are. I'm not saying you are wrong in your beliefs, but it's quite obvious that it's possible that huge numbers of people believe in something which I think is pretty ridiculous. So I'm sceptic.

 

And as for your remark that "It would have so many implications about our level of technology and the possibilities we have that it would have way more relevance and imoportence to our lives than if it was aliens.". That alone proves to me that your current explanation of your experience is - from my point of view - not correct. Because it would indeed have so many consequences that, if true, would be obviously true for 90% of the worlds population. It would have been common knowledge.

 

But from my point of view, the world is flat, so my advice to you: don't bother with my point of view. I don't.

  On 1/29/2012 at 6:58 PM, goDel said:

But you have to understand that we live in a world where 5 million people visit a place like Lourdes every year. Where 67 healings have officially been called miraculous by the Roman church. And the 200 million people who have visited that place are probably as passionate as you are. I'm not saying you are wrong in your beliefs, but it's quite obvious that it's possible that huge numbers of people believe in something which I think is pretty ridiculous. So I'm sceptic.

My problem with that is that "mob mentality" can totally worm into a scene like that and those people are actively searching for religious validation in the form of miracles and will probably forgo lots of cognizant steps in order to achieve that spiritual high, rather then going about their mundane daily lives and having a random chance encounter with something they never imagined happening to them before.

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And as for your remark that "It would have so many implications about our level of technology and the possibilities we have that it would have way more relevance and imoportence to our lives than if it was aliens.". That alone proves to me that your current explanation of your experience is - from my point of view - not correct. Because it would indeed have so many consequences that, if true, would be obviously true for 90% of the worlds population. It would have been common knowledge.

Everyone is just an individual and strange experiences remain an island unto themselves, if there is a critical mass of UFO experiences it hasn't been reached yet and hasn't been made clear and common knowledge because of the lonely character of such phenomena. If its all just man made then I would wager that such technologies and advancements would be "sat on" until a Georgia Guidestone's like future would take shape. The powers that be probably have a long game.

GLARING HOLE

  On 1/29/2012 at 8:07 PM, iep said:

GLARING HOLE drives a conspiracy theory through essines' penis