Autechre Mathematical prediction of next Autechre album's popularity

Below is the amount of time between each release

Next to each is the percent of people who have that album as their favorite based on this poll

http://www.misterpol.../486973/results

Incunabula 1993-11 (3%)

---> (12 months)

Amber 1994-11 (7%)

---> (12 months)

Tri Repetae 1995-11 (9%)

---> (15 months)

Chiastic Slide 1997-02 (10%)

---> (17 months)

LP5 1998-07 (15%)

---> (36 months)

Confield 2001-04 (18%)

---> (23 months)

Draft 7.30 2003-04 (10%)

---> (24 months)

Untilted 2005-04 (14%)

---> (36 months)

Quaristice 2008-03 (2%)

---> (23 months)

Oversteps 2010-02 (7%)

--->---> ---> ---> (29 months)

---> ---> ---> PRESENT 2012-06

Ratio of percent favorite album to time since last release before this release:

Amber (12 months, 7%) -----------------> .58

Tri Repetae (12 months, 9%) -----------------> .75

Chiastic Slide (15 months, 10%) -----------------> .66

LP5 (17 months, 15%) -----------------> .88

Confield (36 months, 18%) -----------------> .50

Draft 7.30 (23 months, 14%) -----------------> .61

Untilted (24 months, 14%) -----------------> .58

Quaristice (36 months, 2%) -----------------> .05

Oversteps (23 months, 7%) -----------------> .30

x^2-Test results in a 0.7235% chance of coincidental popularity to release time ratios so the following additional calculations must be taken with a grain of salt

Assuming the poll represents actual popularity values...

str1 - Average ratio: .5455

str2 - Average ratio (excluding outlier Quaristice): .6075

StDev(str2) = .171109

-------> 90% confidence that the true popularity percentage is within (0.514 , 0.712) times the number of months since the last release

It has been 29 months since the last release, so there is a 90% chance that the next album will have within 14.9% to 20.6% popularity as the listener's favorite Autechre album if released today. Compared to other albums that means it will be in the Untilted to Confield range of goodness

This entire test was done out of boredom for entertainment. Don't take it seriously

math never fails

lol this is great

Love it!

lol righteous

Kiosk

  On 5/6/2012 at 10:02 PM, Zeffolia said:

Below is the amount of time between each release

 

Next to each is the percent of people who have that album as their favorite based on this poll

http://www.misterpol.../486973/results

 

Incunabula 1993-11 (3%)

---> (12 months)

Amber 1994-11 (7%)

---> (12 months)

Tri Repetae 1995-11 (9%)

---> (15 months)

Chiastic Slide 1997-02 (10%)

---> (17 months)

LP5 1998-07 (15%)

---> (36 months)

Confield 2001-04 (18%)

---> (23 months)

Draft 7.30 2003-04 (10%)

---> (24 months)

Untilted 2005-04 (14%)

---> (36 months)

Quaristice 2008-03 (2%)

---> (23 months)

Oversteps 2010-02 (7%)

--->---> ---> ---> (29 months)

---> ---> ---> PRESENT 2012-06

 

Ratio of percent favorite album to time since last release before this release:

 

Amber (12 months, 7%) -----------------> .58

Tri Repetae (12 months, 9%) -----------------> .75

Chiastic Slide (15 months, 10%) -----------------> .66

LP5 (17 months, 15%) -----------------> .88

Confield (36 months, 18%) -----------------> .50

Draft 7.30 (23 months, 14%) -----------------> .61

Untilted (24 months, 14%) -----------------> .58

Quaristice (36 months, 2%) -----------------> .05

Oversteps (23 months, 7%) -----------------> .30

 

x^2-Test results in a 0.7235% chance of coincidental popularity to release time ratios so the following additional calculations must be taken with a grain of salt

 

Assuming the poll represents actual popularity values...

str1 - Average ratio: .5455

str2 - Average ratio (excluding outlier Quaristice): .6075

StDev(str2) = .171109

-------> 90% confidence that the true popularity percentage is within (0.514 , 0.712) times the number of months since the last release

 

It has been 29 months since the last release, so there is a 90% chance that the next album will have within 14.9% to 20.6% popularity as the listener's favorite Autechre album if released today. Compared to other albums that means it will be in the Untilted to Confield range of goodness

 

This entire test was done out of boredom for entertainment. Don't take it seriously

could you do it with aphex too pls?

If you plot the popularity over the time preceding the months and then plot it as a function of time. You get a graph that could be best fit with a 6th powered polynomial. The equation given by

In other words: (_?_)

ncie. i have a feeling the next album is going to be awesome.

popularity = ((number of months since fanboy has had sex with an actual woman times number of albums that sound like a computer having an epileptic fit times population of bald germans who would masturbate to a car alarm) divided by (world supply of LSD times (number of months since BoC release plus number of months since AFX release)) all multiplied by number of pages on ulillillia's site.

according to this, April album releases are pretty much guaranteed to be popular. they should've dropped it last month, we'd have all jizzed ourselves.

  On 5/7/2012 at 1:38 AM, Obel said:

In other words: (_?_)

hehe

this is so beautiful please do it with aphex too

  On 5/7/2012 at 1:38 AM, chassis said:

If you plot the popularity over the time preceding the months and then plot it as a function of time. You get a graph that could be best fit with a 6th powered polynomial. The equation given by

 

y = 8E-06x6 - 0.0002x5 + 0.0027x4 - 0.0147x3 + 0.041x2 - 0.0521x + 0.0293

R² = 0.7911

figure 1: graph

as you see from figure 1, the polynomial has been forecasted forward by an interval of 0.5. The exponential increase shows that either the album will be extremely popular or the wait will be very short.

Since the wait has already been 29 months, one might conclude that the next album will arrive very soon and it will be very popular.

that could be the next AE Cover

My God Autechre is really for Nerds

I thought oversteps was going to be the last album

Bit surprised confield is the most popular album tbh

next album should be called subforum

(nulls) (more) (nulls)

  On 5/6/2012 at 10:23 PM, feltcher said:

Kiosk

Yeeaah look at Pen Expers in the poll!

The poll is right.

So this subforum reached the BoC subforum level uh

Pubic Triangle

the results are interesting my top3 would be

Oversteps

Quaristice

Amber