Paul Krugman: Greece euro exit possible next month, Eurozone-wide meltdown incoming

  On 5/14/2012 at 5:41 PM, delet... said:

Ok just one point. Germany caned europe in ww2 because no one was prepared for war, but germany. Because no one knew that there was going to be war, except germany. Further, despite the supposed austerity that it was under. vast sums were being sent into the country to help build this war machine. This work ethic and values idea, is pretty bullshit.

take a look at the Maginot Line dude

everyone was worried about another war, try AJP Taylor's history of WWI

ill add population to work ethic and values, germany's population is 20 million stronger than other European nations:

germany 81 million

france 63 million

italy 60 million

spain 47 million

uk 62 million

gotto go hehe, will come back l8r and finish

i really miss the exchange rate on dollars to the dutch guilder

those were the days

Adding to the conspiracy: the Dutch guilder was tied to the German Frank.

  On 5/14/2012 at 5:59 PM, chunky said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 5:41 PM, delet... said:

Ok just one point. Germany caned europe in ww2 because no one was prepared for war, but germany. Because no one knew that there was going to be war, except germany. Further, despite the supposed austerity that it was under. vast sums were being sent into the country to help build this war machine. This work ethic and values idea, is pretty bullshit.

 

take a look at the Maginot Line dude

everyone was worried about another war, try AJP Taylor's history of WWI

 

ill add population to work ethic and values, germany's population is 20 million stronger than other European nations:

 

 

germany 81 million

 

france 63 million

italy 60 million

spain 47 million

uk 62 million

 

gotto go hehe, will come back l8r and finish

The maginot line gave france the false impression that it was safe from any potential (over the horizon, at some later time), attack from germany. Hence, they didn't build up their war machine and went into the war with outdated weaponry. Ditto for britain.

  On 5/14/2012 at 2:12 PM, goDel said:

Capitalism has actually served us well, for the most part. It's our consumerism which is our deeper sickness, if you ask me.

Capitalism as a system does not stop to consider over consumption and the ramification of over consumption affecting the planet as well as people in general. It does not work as it bases it's outlook on an infitinite growth ideology which cannot work on a planet with finite resources. This is simple stuff, you don't need a degree in economics to realise this scientific evaluation. Therefore the whole basis of our economies are inherently invalid.

So dealing with 'consumerism' is total patch work and is not a good enough solution. The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

Sure, and lets not be dismissive about it either. My bad.

....

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

Capitalism has brought more people around the world out of poverty and into educated, middle-class lifestyles than any other force in human history.

... unless you are suggesting we go back to our hunter-gatherer days, which would be cool.

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:28 PM, Al Hounos said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

 

Capitalism has brought more people around the world out of poverty and into educated, middle-class lifestyles than any other force in human history.

Wait Al Hounos, be careful here.

  Quote

This is simple stuff, you don't need a degree in economics to realise this scientific evaluation. Therefore the whole basis of our economies are inherently invalid.

This is not subject to lively discussion, but as simple as "1+1=2". Apparently.

  On 5/14/2012 at 5:59 PM, chunky said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 5:41 PM, delet... said:

Ok just one point. Germany caned europe in ww2 because no one was prepared for war, but germany. Because no one knew that there was going to be war, except germany. Further, despite the supposed austerity that it was under. vast sums were being sent into the country to help build this war machine. This work ethic and values idea, is pretty bullshit.

 

take a look at the Maginot Line dude

everyone was worried about another war, try AJP Taylor's history of WWI

 

ill add population to work ethic and values, germany's population is 20 million stronger than other European nations:

 

 

germany 81 million

 

france 63 million

italy 60 million

spain 47 million

uk 62 million

 

gotto go hehe, will come back l8r and finish

alright i gotta jump in here.

For one, AJP Taylor, even though he certainly deserves respect for his publications, is pretty outdated on German history. Second, Taylor was a notorious Germanophobe, even going so far as to suggest that the Holocaust was a natural progression of German culture. This same thesis was proposed by Daniel Goldberg, and was torn to pieces by anyone that actually knew shit about German History. I wouldn't base some notion of a Franco-German nation off of Taylor's histories.

The idea of a Franco-German nation is ludicrous for plenty of other reasons. One, for their shared past. Two, as you rightly suggested the cultural nationalization problem. Three, the immense intercomplexities of a globalized European economy makes warfare incredibly unlikely. Unless the entirety of the monetary system (and thus the debt accumulated in that system) is abolished (which probably isn't the best idea), Franco-Germany would still have to deal with the massive debts incurred by "conquered" debtor countries. Part of the reason Hitler's Eastern Front started to collapse was because the German economists had absolutely no funds to revitalize or push for infrastructure in conquered territories or in fascist puppet nations.

One of the biggest myths of the Second World War was that Germany had some unstoppable war machine. But in reality anyone with common sense knows that the German war effort was doomed from 1940 onward. They did have the benefit of some of the most genius and crafty senior tacticians of the past century (Guderian, von Boch, Manstein, Rommel, etc.) But a lot of those men learned from their elders, the "Old Guard" military experts of the Franco-Prussian and WWI days. They knew the ONLY chance Germany had to win the war was to use a highly mobile mechanized strategy (blitzkrieg, kampfgruppe, etc.). But that was under the assumption that the Allied powers would sue for peace, which never happened. Same mistake they made in the First World War. Not to mention a ton of other things, Hitler's complete military and economic incompetence, infighting amongst senior Nazi authorities, sloth and corruption overrunning the corporate socialist structure causing massive decay in every single German industry except for heavy machine manufacturing.

I don't know where you get this "Superior German work ethic" out of military victories. That's like saying the North Koreans have a superior work ethic and culture to the South because they beat back the ROK armies in 1950, or that the Vietnamese have a "superior work ethic" to the Americans and French. It makes no sense.

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:32 PM, goDel said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:28 PM, Al Hounos said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

 

Capitalism has brought more people around the world out of poverty and into educated, middle-class lifestyles than any other force in human history.

 

Wait Al Hounos, be careful here.

 

  Quote

This is simple stuff, you don't need a degree in economics to realise this scientific evaluation. Therefore the whole basis of our economies are inherently invalid.

 

This is not subject to lively discussion, but as simple as "1+1=2". Apparently.

ahh godel, always such a warm presence.

Capitalism is a temporary state. When kept in check by socialistic policies, we can run businesses and not be bothered too much about how things work. But if the checks against it's natural velocity are removed, inevitably you end up with monopolies, and corporate-state synergies (fascism).

It's pretty naive to say that everything in human development came from capitalism. And that we'd still be in mud huts, if we weren't graced with the magic of having the choice of 15 carpet traders to choose from, and a market spilling over with the bounty of the natural world. Humanity progressed because ideas were traded and developed. Mostly freely. These ideas were then capitalized on, by merchants and industrialists. But it was the thinkers that pulled the knowledge pool forward. And do-gooders who made sure everyone had enough to eat and a roof over their head and when they went to the toilet there was a sewerage system to flush their waste into, and so on.

In other words we don't live in a capitalist system. It is but a note being played in the symphony of our lives.

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:32 PM, goDel said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:28 PM, Al Hounos said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

 

Capitalism has brought more people around the world out of poverty and into educated, middle-class lifestyles than any other force in human history.

 

Wait Al Hounos, be careful here.

 

  Quote

This is simple stuff, you don't need a degree in economics to realise this scientific evaluation. Therefore the whole basis of our economies are inherently invalid.

 

This is not subject to lively discussion, but as simple as "1+1=2". Apparently.

Well, since GoDel was talking about looking at two sides of the same coin, let me be the other side. Yes, capitalism brought with it an unprecedented amount of wealth in the hands of a burgeoning middle class. Yet this did not solely result from a capitalist ideology; this is complete and utter reactionary nonsense. Progressive and agrarian reform movements, the reactions against centralized accumulation of wealth accrued from the Industrial Revolution helped society streamline and protect themselves from the potentially disastrous results of unfettered capitalism. Go ask a miner in the 1890s how much better his life was from twenty years beforehand. Why? Because he can buy a teapot to take home to a feces-saturated tenement with eleven children, six of whom have tuberculosis and no money left to pay for treatment?

Now fast-forward to the same worker in 1910. He reaps the benefits of a 40 hour workday; his children get some form of free healthcare from the Tenement Regulation Committees all throughout the midwest, many of which were completely self-funded, inner-city education, legislation making proper food and water sanitation mandatory, more affordable insurance rates, the breakdown of railroad monopolies so small business owners didn't have to give away 80% of their profits to shipping costs, on and on and on.

You need the "push" just as much as the "pull" between the aggression and organizational genius of the Industrial Rev. magnates as well as the titans of Progressive and social platforms to help regulate it and make society far more equitable than it had ever been.

dagnab it, dleet basically said it in far more streamlined and coherent terms in the above post.

"For one, AJP Taylor, even though he certainly deserves respect for his publications, is pretty outdated on German history. Second, Taylor was a notorious Germanophobe, even going so far as to suggest that the Holocaust was a natural progression of German culture. This same thesis was proposed by Daniel Goldberg, and was torn to pieces by anyone that actually knew shit about German History. I wouldn't base some notion of a Franco-German nation off of Taylor's histories."

I read two books by AJP Taylor recently, I didn't find them heavily biased against Germany, but I did notice that there were facts missing about the German side of the history, but that's to be expected from an English writer. I wouldn't call him a Germanophobe based on the books that I read, but that's interesting, can you tell me more about his hatred for Germany? The thing about the Holocaust being a natural progression of German culture is an interesting topic too, I wouldn't dismiss the notion fully however as there is evidence to support it. There is a historian called John C.G. Rohl who has demonstrated Kaiser Wilhelm II's opinions towards Jewish people, and he even called for their extermination at one point. But the Kaiser was a very contradictory man who could say the most horrible things one moment, then change his mind the next.

Here is a quote from a cartoon written in 1894, anonymous German writer:

"In 1894, when Kaiser Wilhelm II had been on the throne for only six years and Bismarck in angry retirement for four, when Adolf Hitler was not yet old enough to go to school, an obscene broadsheet costing 30 Pfennigs appeared on the streets of Berlin which, seen from the vantage point of the present day, poses the question of continuity in modern German history about as starkly as it is possible to pose it. Entitled 'In the 20th Century', an ornate cartoon (fig. 2) pictures the German capital in the year 1950. It projects two scenarios: either the Germans have defeated the Jewish menace, or the Jews have taken over Berlin.

In the latter case, Rothschild rules over Germany, the anti-semites ---Bökel, Foerster, Dühring, Schönerer, Stoecker, etc. --- are in prison and Ahlwardt is being beheaded. The German people is enslaved in a socialist 'German Workers' Colony' run for the benefit of Jewish profiteers. Opposite the colony, beyond the statue commemorating the Liberal parliamentarian Heinrich Rickert, we see the flourishing stock exchange, the Jewish National Theatre and the Jewish National Museum, whereas the Christian Church is being closed down. Germans are being expelled from their own country, their 'fresh' young children sold along with geese for Jewish kitchens. Everywhere, Jewish 'world supremacy temples' in the form of kiosks are being erected to mark their domination over the 'German slave nation'.

An altogether different world reveals itself as we raise our eyes to the higher section of the picture. In 1950, Kaiser Wilhelm the Third and his empress have just come to the throne. German artisans and peasants march happily through the streets shouting 'Heil' and 'Gott mit uns!'; German athletes compete,/in German Games; the people stream into the Deutsches Volks-Haus to celebrate the glories of Beethoven, Mozart, Goethe, and Schiller; German children listen once more to German fairy tales. The Church is back at the centre of society; a statue depicts St George slaying the Jewish dragon. The canonical laws discriminating against Jews have been reinstated, the synagogue has been closed and the Rabbi has committed suicide. The last Jew is being expelled from the country ---'Juden raus', proclaims the policeman's banner. Many are in the Zuchthaus, all are forced, before being led away with ropes around their necks' , to return their 'stolen goods' to the Church for redistribution to the German poor. And in the high street, to the sound of trumpets and clarinets, to the smell of incense, with the burghers of Berlin looking gleefully on, Jews are being publicly hanged.

In the accompanying text the author prophesies that Germany would, come what may,. 'conduct the struggle against Juda in deadly earnest, although in typical Germanic fashion, he declares, 'a cruel streak of humour will not be entirely absent But it would be in the Jewish interest for the solution [Lösung]'; to be found soon, and to be directed from above by a royal hand, since otherwise the German people might be seized by an 'ecstasy' under which the Jews would suffer an even more painful fate. The pamphlet appeals to Kaiser Wilhelm II to undertake 'this most arduous struggle of the soul'. But it warns: 'If the Jewish Question is not solved by Wilhelm II then it will be solved under Wilhelm III." - There is more on Kaiser Wilhelm II's relationship with the Jews here: http://www.vlib.us/w...50404/will.html

Hitler was five when that cartoon pamplet was published!

My opinions on the French-German thing aren't really based on AJP Taylor, he talked about the war as it happened not about what he thought the future would be. My opinions are based on Bismarck, Kaiser Wilhelm II, and what I see happening by following the modern press.

"The idea of a Franco-German nation is ludicrous for plenty of other reasons. One, for their shared past. Two, as you rightly suggested the cultural nationalization problem. Three, the immense intercomplexities of a globalized European economy makes warfare incredibly unlikely. Unless the entirety of the monetary system (and thus the debt accumulated in that system) is abolished (which probably isn't the best idea), Franco-Germany would still have to deal with the massive debts incurred by "conquered" debtor countries. Part of the reason Hitler's Eastern Front started to collapse was because the German economists had absolutely no funds to revitalize or push for infrastructure in conquered territories or in fascist puppet nations."

Aye, well it may or may not be ridiculous but they seem to be plodding on regardless. It's not a democratic project, and European citizens are powerless to oppose it.

"One of the biggest myths of the Second World War was that Germany had some unstoppable war machine. But in reality anyone with common sense knows that the German war effort was doomed from 1940 onward. They did have the benefit of some of the most genius and crafty senior tacticians of the past century (Guderian, von Boch, Manstein, Rommel, etc.) But a lot of those men learned from their elders, the "Old Guard" military experts of the Franco-Prussian and WWI days. They knew the ONLY chance Germany had to win the war was to use a highly mobile mechanized strategy (blitzkrieg, kampfgruppe, etc.). But that was under the assumption that the Allied powers would sue for peace, which never happened. Same mistake they made in the First World War. Not to mention a ton of other things, Hitler's complete military and economic incompetence, infighting amongst senior Nazi authorities, sloth and corruption overrunning the corporate socialist structure causing massive decay in every single German industry except for heavy machine manufacturing."

I agree with pretty much all of this.

"I don't know where you get this "Superior German work ethic" out of military victories. That's like saying the North Koreans have a superior work ethic and culture to the South because they beat back the ROK armies in 1950, or that the Vietnamese have a "superior work ethic" to the Americans and French. It makes no sense."

Sorry I've confused people with this work ethic talk. When I talk about the work ethic I'm talking about a well known stereotype about german workers that is nothing to do with military or war matters.

Owww you two. That brought a tear to my eye. And I'm not being cynical either.

I do want to point out that my basic statement was that "Capitalism served us well, for the most part." There's no need for using the "reactionary nonsense" bit, imo. Or the "naive to think that every bit of human development came from capitalism". I have never even heard anyone making statements like those, so I'm not sure why this is being brought into the discussion. It's quite lively however. So thanks for that. :-)

so you are basically saying that europe will be a corpse hill again, thats what I'm saying the whole time

  On 5/14/2012 at 8:19 PM, goDel said:

Owww you two. That brought a tear to my eye. And I'm not being cynical either.

 

I do want to point out that my basic statement was that "Capitalism served us well, for the most part." There's no need for using the "reactionary nonsense" bit, imo. Or the "naive to think that every bit of human development came from capitalism". I have never even heard anyone making statements like those, so I'm not sure why this is being brought into the discussion. It's quite lively however. So thanks for that. :-)

clearly part of my post was dedicated to this statement by al hounos.

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:28 PM, Al Hounos said:

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

The private ownership of wealth leaves thousands dying each day.

 

Capitalism has brought more people around the world out of poverty and into educated, middle-class lifestyles than any other force in human history.

 

... unless you are suggesting we go back to our hunter-gatherer days, which would be cool.

You're "clearly" interpreting his statement to mean more than he implied, if you ask me.

Also, the "pure fantasy" part you wisely edited away, is another discussion entirely. Take for instance this Hans Rosling TED talk:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpKbO6O3O3M

Notice the importance of economic growth at the 15 minute mark. And the distinction between means and goals. Also not of minor importance, I might add.

I am really interested to see if there will be major civil unrest in Greece, Spain and Portugal at some point. I can see some demonstrations and the odd riot, but doubtful there be any sort of revolutionary action.

  On 5/14/2012 at 9:52 PM, azatoth said:

I am really interested to see if there will be major civil unrest in Greece, Spain and Portugal at some point. I can see some demonstrations and the odd riot, but doubtful there be any sort of revolutionary action.

There already is. Maybe not revolutionary, but what do you expect? It's not that a simple revolution will bring any improvement. (Is it?) It'll probably make things even worse. It's pretty awful, especially in Greece. The only thing the people from Greece can do at this point, is choose between parties which are either against or for the EU. If you see more options, you're worth your weight in gold. And if you can show Greece will be better off outside the EU than inside, you're worth your weight in platinum.

The safe bet is for their economy to return to the safe and boring middle. And the path is through a mixture of austerity and investments. The current deal the EU/IMF provides them is to invest whenever they reach certain austerity goals. The other option is printing their own money and leaving the EU. This last option might work for the US (which is arguable on itself). But that's mainly because of its importance for the global economy. Greece is a different story. It's probable that the Greek economy outside the EU is a lost economy. I'm not expecting any revolutions in the coming weeks. Only more elections.

One might argue those are different shades of gray, though.

And btw, I'm not seeing any investments being made into teaching German to the Greeks. But that's another issue.

26 Italian banks downgraded as part of wider review of European banks

  Quote

We downgraded 26 Italian banks as part of a review for downgrade of various European banks initiated on 15 February 2012. We already took action on seven Portuguese banks in March. We expect to conclude the remaining reviews on other European banking systems by the end of June. This wider review is driven by the difficult European operating environment caused by the prolonged euro area crisis, and the deteriorating creditworthiness of certain euro area sovereigns (including Italy)

http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_141195

O dear....

There may be one specific revolution in the coming weeks. I see a wailing Berlusconi (why not?) with a shotgun inside the Moody's headquarters painting the walls "financial" red.

this page was great reading, bravo guys

lol...because we were civil? watmm first maybe?

Came across a timelapse video of the map of europe over the period 1000-2003. Putting things into a nice perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoWtvpg77oE

Viva EU!

  On 5/14/2012 at 7:06 PM, Bread said:

Capitalism as a system does not stop to consider over consumption and the ramification of over consumption affecting the planet as well as people in general. It does not work as it bases it's outlook on an infitinite growth ideology which cannot work on a planet with finite resources. This is simple stuff, you don't need a degree in economics to realise this scientific evaluation.

If you'd actually studied any economics, you'd realize that capitalism does consider over consumption. Capitalism and its preeminent economists also take into account the cycle of booms and busts.

delet put it quite succinctly - unfettered markets will not be beneficial. A system of organizing the benefits of capitalism though can work for the benefit of the majority.

Unless you've solved those pesky laws of thermodynamics. In which case - the nobel is yours for the taking - be sure to mention watmm in your acceptance speech!

As to people not being prepared for war, that's only partially right. There were concerns about another war occurring almost immediately after the Paris Peace Conference in 1919. Mostly due to how the delegates at said conference decided to carve up Europe in the aftermath of WW1.