(CAT023) Kickstarter: guess how much money will be raised

its getting press. publicity in music mags so that changes things.

Even a progressive house forum I go on has a thread about it

  On 4/13/2014 at 2:38 AM, logakght said:

the necessary to keep Richard from releasing a new Aphex album.

Ok, i want my moniker somewhere in this new Aphex album cover...

Is the 'just 600 people' thing still a thing? Or did I mis-read The Guardian article?

Edit: Just read the FAQ's on the page, I see it's now unlimited!

If the current rate stays steady, then by the 29th day the total will be approximately $386,666.667c

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It's hit nearly 40k in 3 days. Do that math!

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1 trillion rupees. Let's get it. Thug Motivation.

But really I bet it will be about 45000 to 50000. A smashing success either way.

I think realistically, around 50K tops - then again, I thought it might take the whole 30 days just to reach 9300!

Life has stopped us from ever being able to dream big joyrex. Weathered old men with reasonable and considered dreams.

  On 4/14/2014 at 6:02 PM, Joyrex said:

I think realistically, around 50K tops - then again, I thought it might take the whole 30 days just to reach 9300!

Yeah $50-60 thousand sounds about right. I wonder if people will continue to support as strongly as they did initially now that the target has been surpassed (considerably).

You (Joyrex) made a good point about typical sales numbers for Rephlex releases especially those that were pressed in the 2,000 - 3,000 copy range. I see this one as more of an LP rather than an EP so I figure most people would pay about $20 - $25 for a physical release. If Rephlex had it right all along at printing 2000-3000 copies than $60 thousand would be about right.

If this was an unreleased Warp test pressing as 'Aphex Twin' I bet the numbers would be much higher though.

  On 4/14/2014 at 6:19 PM, Papillon said:

 

If this was an unreleased Warp test pressing as 'Aphex Twin' I bet the numbers would be much higher though.

 

Would probably be nearing 190k by now.

At this point it's all about marketing. The people close to watmm have prolly already signed. So now it's all up to the people not directly related to the watmm circle....

would be awesome if it can keep up with the 100 new sign ups a day until the end.

Finally got around to adding my contribution. Good to see the total still rising, I reckon it could still get up to 70-80k

wow, that's heaps. Seeing as this came out of nowhere, besides buying a congratulatory pint or ten, rephlex need to ring fence this money to serve the advancement of their label and it's stable of waiting around for their releases to come out artists.

I'm sure they just love being told what to do with the money. Guilt trippin' you muthafakaz. [-; ;-p

two owls! one owl? get outta here. two owls? now you're talkin'.

  On 4/15/2014 at 3:31 PM, MadameChaos said:

two owls! one owl? get outta here. two owls? now you're talkin'.

Hey we should give the money to an owl sanctuary. Owls are cool, get 'em a bucket of mice.

Even though donations are more staggered now, I still think this has a good chance of hitting the 60-80k bracket.

if there was a mistake, it was only putting one bucket in there. maybe if there were bigger buckets with rephlex merch involved, such as afx t shirts, this fundraiser would be at 200,000 by now.

  On 4/15/2014 at 4:19 PM, skibby said:

if there was a mistake, it was only putting one bucket in there. maybe if there were bigger buckets with rephlex merch involved, such as afx t shirts, this fundraiser would be at 200,000 by now.

Yeah, that would have been nice...

Oh well, there's always the next Kickstarter to do that

Ok, trying to work out what Richard will earn from this.

Say it ends up around the $50k mark, divide by 2, $25k, half of that for Richard's share is $12.5k, then if he is paying 50% tax, which I bet he is in the UK, that will be $6.25k or £3.7k.

So he earns £3.7k for a double album of unreleased music, that he could put out on a Warp or Rephlex comp??

Doesn't seem like a great wage for someone in his position, did he really agree to this?

  On 4/15/2014 at 6:59 PM, chops727 said:

Ok, trying to work out what Richard will earn from this.

Say it ends up around the $50k mark, divide by 2, $25k, half of that for Richard's share is $12.5k, then if he is paying 50% tax, which I bet he is in the UK, that will be $6.25k or £3.7k.

 

So he earns £3.7k for a double album of unreleased music, that he could put out on a Warp or Rephlex comp??

Doesn't seem like a great wage for someone in his position, did he really agree to this?

Where are you getting he gets half - the seller's agreed payment was 5000 GBP - after that, the rest is Richard/Rephlex. Richard/Rephlex will get half the proceeds of the Ebay sale, with the other half going to charity. Kickstarter takes 5%, and Amazon Payments charges 3-5% (hence why the funding goal was set to 9300.00 - to ensure the seller got their asking price if the Kickstarter barely made the funding goal).

Plus, he never intended on releasing this after it was shelved - and it's for the fans!

It's interesting to see that kicktraq's current low estimate is 160K.

The average growth needed for this low estimate is bigger than the average in the last couple of days, which to me suggests that the model predicts a second bubble of popularity. (Read: It's technically no problem to build a model with a decreasing average, but the statistics from other kickstarters might suggest otherwise)

Kinda like news spreading outside the niche at a later point in time (example: the popular belgian newsoutlet copy pasting from pitchfork, which ooze posted in another thread). Which reaches a bigger population of people who are interested but outside the niche. And those people tend to have a slower response themselves as well. So this second bubble would be more spread out than the initial explosion of sign ups.

I don't think we'll even make it to this low estimate though. Still thinking half of the current low estimate would be a good high estimate. It wouldn't be far fetched to see the average amount of daily sign ups around 100 from now on towards the end, i believe.

The last day or two could change a lot. Especially if a couple articles come out like "Last Day to Buy Unreleased Caustic Window LP!".

probably more than I make in a year.

*gets angry*

$100,000

I'm thinking 69k