Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)

so like, clearly there's no smoking gun or direct (i'm sure both trump and hillary try to install as many insulators between them and their indiscretions). but my understanding of the trump russia thing is essentialy... he received emails that were hacked by russia full of factual information that he leveraged to win the election. yeah?

when did russia become the enemy?

read who devin nunes and Trey Gowdy are. they're fucking hacks. 

https://oversight.house.gov/release/house-oversight-house-intel-committees-launch-joint-investigation-obama-era-uranium-one-deal/

this is all politically motivated. they do it because they can.. the same reason they investigated bill clinton's blow job for years.  it's politics. 

  On 10/30/2017 at 8:36 PM, juiceciuj said:

so like, clearly there's no smoking gun or direct (i'm sure both trump and hillary try to install as many insulators between them and their indiscretions). but my understanding of the trump russia thing is essentialy... he received emails that were hacked by russia full of factual information that he leveraged to win the election. yeah?

 

when did russia become the enemy?

ask putin he's fucking paranoid.  that's one narrative anyways.. 

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-revenge/

seems a lot of it fits.

right i'm sure bill did far worse things than get blowjobs from monica. so they all suck and should be voted out? like, genuinely curious as to what people are hoping for with the outcome of the trump russia shit. pence? none of them give a flying fuck about us. media is just whipping people into a frenzy to incite divisiveness and comment posting tirades to get more views clicks. how can anyone actually hope to accomplish anything meaningful in all of this garbage?

  On 10/30/2017 at 8:42 PM, juiceciuj said:

right i'm sure bill did far worse things than get blowjobs from monica. so they all suck and should be voted out? like, genuinely curious as to what people are hoping for with the outcome of the trump russia shit. pence? none of them give a flying fuck about us. media is just whipping people into a frenzy to incite divisiveness and comment posting tirades to get more views clicks. how can anyone actually hope to accomplish anything meaningful in all of this garbage?

538 has a landing page about impeachment that has some links you can follow to do some digging. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

regarding bill clinton.. he may have made decisions some people didn't like and in hindsight some shit was pretty bad for us all but making a bad decision or making bad policy is different than actual treason and collusion with foreign agents/governments.. we'll see how it all pans out and what's there when they're done.. i'm guessing w/someone like trump there's a million rocks to kick over and a nest of financial deals long time entanglements. some of which may be of interest. some of which is not relevant

  On 10/30/2017 at 8:36 PM, juiceciuj said:

so like, clearly there's no smoking gun or direct (i'm sure both trump and hillary try to install as many insulators between them and their indiscretions). but my understanding of the trump russia thing is essentialy... he received emails that were hacked by russia full of factual information that he leveraged to win the election. yeah?

 

when did russia become the enemy?

the trump russia thing goes way beyond hacked emails.

eg.: https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/27/16552458/trump-russia-clinton-steele-cambridge-analytica

this is mostly te email thing:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/30/16571114/trump-russia-mueller-indictments-manafort-gates-papadopolous

russia was "the enemy" mostly because of the ukraine situation. since well before the 2016 elections. so it's not really about when it became the enemy, it's more about when it stopped being the enemy. because somewhere during the 2016 election process, a new policy with respect to russia came out of the gop. which was completely opposite to what the gop used to represent. gop up until that point had mostly hawkish approaches towards russia. but during the elections, it moved towards searching cooperation with russia. a complete 180 degrees. and given all the signs of russian intervention in the 2016 election process... well, it's obvious mueller and a couple of congressional committees are looking into it.

The obvious danger is that if it's a damp squib trump will be 100 times stronger

I'll wait and see until all is out

But speculation is only helping the c..t

honestly, what the russia thing is, is... it looks like... moscow has something on trump. and he works for them.

flynn resigned because he was talking to russians about lifting sanctions on russia (immediately, in january) and then lied about it

sessions lied about talking with the russians a half dozen times during the campaign

why are they in cahoots? and why are they hiding it?

it sounds like a shitty novel that the president could be, in effect, an agent of russia. but that's what it looks like

you want a smoking gun? trump sold a mold-infested house in florida to a russian oligarch for twice its value without mold. it had to be torn down. 50 million over what market value would have been if it were not dilapidated. that amounts to a russian oligarch depositing 50 mil + into trump. sure it doesn't conclusively prove anything. its also just about impossible to interpret it any other way than trump and moscow being entwined

like donnie jr said years ago, trump has been doing tons of business with russia. him ending up under the thumb of the russian mafia somewhere along the way is not that inconceivable. 

especially when you consider that an important thing to the mafia (russia is essentially a mafia government) is money laundering, and a common way to launder money is real estate

  On 10/31/2017 at 3:56 AM, bendish said:

The obvious danger is that if it's a damp squib trump will be 100 times stronger

 

I'll wait and see until all is out

But speculation is only helping the c..t

you can say cunt on the internet, it's alright.

  On 10/31/2017 at 5:24 AM, usagi said:

 

  On 10/31/2017 at 3:56 AM, bendish said:

The obvious danger is that if it's a damp squib trump will be 100 times stronger

 

I'll wait and see until all is out

But speculation is only helping the c..t

 

you can say cunt on the internet, it's alright.

 

obligatory

I want a t shirt with a shep fairey obama-esque trump with cunt written instead of hope

who can make it for me?

This twitter thread by seth Abramson is another gem:

Couple predictions:

This phase of the investigation (indictments) will take 2-5 months.

More indictments before march 2018 are highly probable. And later on, people from trumps inner circle will be indicted.

Flynn currently not being indicted is a sign that he's cooperating with the investigators.

show me the pee

  On 10/31/2017 at 8:24 AM, goDel said:

This twitter thread by seth Abramson is another gem:

https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/924988111880417280

 

Couple predictions:

This phase of the investigation (indictments) will take 2-5 months.

More indictments before march 2018 are highly probable. And later on, people from trumps inner circle will be indicted.

Flynn currently not being indicted is a sign that he's cooperating with the investigators.

Seth is wrong when he says prosecutors charge everything they think they can prove. They usually have a strategy to get what they can convictions on for maximum sentencing and criminal asset recovery.

Still wish this guy would write blog posts.

  On 10/31/2017 at 7:09 AM, bendish said:

I want a t shirt with a shep fairey obama-esque trump with cunt written instead of hope

 

who can make it for me?

This was great, they call out this blonde lady for being an RNC robot who just keeps repeating the bullshit about Uranium One she's been told to say, and even warn of the influence of Sinclair Broadcast Group and their attempts to subvert your local news station.

  On 10/31/2017 at 1:32 PM, chenGOD said:

 

  On 10/31/2017 at 8:24 AM, goDel said:

This twitter thread by seth Abramson is another gem:

https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/924988111880417280

 

Couple predictions:

This phase of the investigation (indictments) will take 2-5 months.

More indictments before march 2018 are highly probable. And later on, people from trumps inner circle will be indicted.

Flynn currently not being indicted is a sign that he's cooperating with the investigators.

Seth is wrong when he says prosecutors charge everything they think they can prove. They usually have a strategy to get what they can convictions on for maximum sentencing and criminal asset recovery.

 

Still wish this guy would write blog posts.

 

How far did you get reading the thread? He uses half of the thread to explain those strategies (->proof for collusion is largely testimonial = no paper trail. so, in other words: why "charge everything they think they can prove" does not count for this case).

whether or not prosecutors, in general, charge everything they can prove, you can debate with a brick wall. or reply a tweet to seth or something. might be productive, who knows. good luck :)

edit: my forecast: trump might survive this christmas, but he'll be gone the next. he won't finish his first term of 4 years. and no, he won't start WW3 with tweets. he will try though, but politicians are too smart to act on trump tweets. even the ones in north korea. unless they want to start a war and need some excuse. and i believe they don't, btw.

Just my opinion based on interactions with federal prosecutors in my current line of work. I can’t read those Seth Abrams tweet storms, I can’t handle 20 thoughts only somewhat connected laid out like that.

ouch. i think you under-appreciate (is that a word?) the abramson-twitter-threads. the abramson threads read like books. these aren't shot from the hips like those trump threads, for instance. these are carefully planned and built with a lawyerly precision. not somewhat connected thoughts which just happen to be numbered. tsk tsk

  On 10/31/2017 at 1:34 PM, hello spiral said:

 

  On 10/31/2017 at 7:09 AM, bendish said:

I want a t shirt with a shep fairey obama-esque trump with cunt written instead of hope

 

who can make it for me?

 

 

Happy Halloween!

  On 10/31/2017 at 6:23 PM, goDel said:

ouch. i think you under-appreciate (is that a word?) the abramson-twitter-threads. the abramson threads read like books. these aren't shot from the hips like those trump threads, for instance. these are carefully planned and built with a lawyerly precision. not somewhat connected thoughts which just happen to be numbered. tsk tsk

Under-appreciate definitely a word.

Come on, I’m not comparing them to Trump’s unintelligible garbage.

I think writing in a blog would force him to make the links between the ideas flow in a more coherent manner.

Also if his tweet #11 is true, there’s not much of a case. Hearsay is generally not valid evidence.

Anyway it’s very interesting to me due to my current work, so will be following closely.

  On 10/31/2017 at 9:39 PM, chenGOD said:

 

  On 10/31/2017 at 6:23 PM, goDel said:

ouch. i think you under-appreciate (is that a word?) the abramson-twitter-threads. the abramson threads read like books. these aren't shot from the hips like those trump threads, for instance. these are carefully planned and built with a lawyerly precision. not somewhat connected thoughts which just happen to be numbered. tsk tsk

Under-appreciate definitely a word.

Come on, I’m not comparing them to Trump’s unintelligible garbage.

I think writing in a blog would force him to make the links between the ideas flow in a more coherent manner.

Also if his tweet #11 is true, there’s not much of a case. Hearsay is generally not valid evidence.

Anyway it’s very interesting to me due to my current work, so will be following closely.

 

Don't worry about #11. See following thread about Papadopoulos. This is basically key to the case. Manafort is nice, but might not even be that important. 

abramson's twitter is a really good read. thank you for sharing this.

Seth Abramson's Twitter acount has been the only thing keeping me sane the last six months.

He really puts regular news outlets to shame. The lack of expertise and in-depth analysis you see in regular media is incredible. Really shows how big of a disservice those "pundits" provide. It's about drawing in viewers with talking heads who are able to pull the right emotional strings. Often either outrage, fear, or just confirming some partisan bias. Of course some might argue Abramson is a democrat, or partisan because he appears to be against Trump. But given that logic, any sane person is partisan. So that's really not a strong argument, imo. 

  On 10/31/2017 at 11:08 PM, goDel said:

He really puts regular news outlets to shame. The lack of expertise and in-depth analysis you see in regular media is incredible. Really shows how big of a disservice those "pundits" provide. It's about drawing in viewers with talking heads who are able to pull the right emotional strings. Often either outrage, fear, or just confirming some partisan bias. 

Yup. The thing is that media outlets do put people who are as knowledgeable as Abramson on the air: they just don't give them the time or opportunity to analyze to the depth necessary. I've seen it many times on cable news in the last few years, the host will want a bite-sized bit of information that sums it all up and has some drama or angle or whatever, but nothing more. They'll straight up interrupt and cut to commercial or other guests when the conversation gets too heady. A few shows (evening and night cable news generally) will allow some more in-depth conversation, but those are often plagued by other issues (usually the ego of the host if I'm being a bit flippant, the lean towards bias to state the obvious), and these conversations are often not about very current issues because guests are promoting books and shit like that...

But ultimately people don't want that in-depth coverage and analysis from their TV, that's what it comes down to really. It's just the nature of the beast.