2020 US Election

  On 3/6/2020 at 6:02 PM, caze said:

it's not disingenuous at all. the point is money in politics isn't everything it's made out to be. sure, it's going to help, but it's not sufficient by itself (look at Bloomberg), and even if you don't have any you can still achieve results, as Biden just showed. Biden only had one Super PAC supporting him, and it's barely raised any money, has had close to zero impact (he didn't even run ads in most of the Super Tuesday states).

 

in a reply to the original tweet he tried to backtrack saying he wasn't good at maths, but it doesn't matter as what he meant was Bloomberg's entire fortune. but even then it would only amount to around $150 per person, lol. 

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money isn't everything it's made out to be? so what are you endorsing then, that there should be no restrictions? nobody claims it's sufficient by itself.  biden doesn't need as much money for various reasons you should already know: he's the establishment candidate, mainstream media is basically a 24/7 advertisement for him, he doesn't need commercials

warren supporters not endorsing bernie explained

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  On 3/6/2020 at 6:51 PM, Zeffolia said:

bernie's money is from small individual donors.  biden's is from billionaires and corporations.

wrong, the majority of Biden's money to date has been direct personal donations, which are limited in amount and fully transparent. the only way to get unlimited and opaque funding is via a Super PAC, and he only had one set up for him relatively late in the game (late last year), and it only generated any serious money in the last week (and was still far less than anyone else spent). since then he's seen his small personal contributions grow massively (raising more than Sanders since Super Tuesday), making the Super PAC contributions even smaller overall. he's on record saying he doesn't want Super PAC money, so we'll see if this trend continues, or whether there's a shift to serious funding from them in the future.

  On 3/6/2020 at 7:03 PM, Zeffolia said:

money isn't everything it's made out to be? so what are you endorsing then, that there should be no restrictions? nobody claims it's sufficient by itself.  biden doesn't need as much money for various reasons you should already know: he's the establishment candidate, mainstream media is basically a 24/7 advertisement for him, he doesn't need commercials

no, I think Super PACs should be banned, and that there should be strict regulation and transparency on campaign spending. I'm just saying it doesn't always have the impact the paranoid rantings of the far left would have you believe, this is demonstrably true in the Biden campaign to date.

you're also completely wrong about the mainstream media's coverage of Biden, they have been very cool on him from the start, there was far more interest in Warren's campaign than his, and even the smaller moderate candidates who got nowhere. Bernie has probably received more favorable coverage than Biden up til now. They'll probably fall in behind him now that there's no-one left, but up til now they've been no help to him.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/candidate?id=N00001669

Unite the Country being the Super PAC

American Posibilities was another Super PAC set up before the other one, but it never raised any money.

Just imagine the modular setup Biden will be able to buy for that kind of money

That's about half of what Sanders has raised/spent btw.

yeah, sanders' forthcoming modular album is clearly the most anticipated and well funded in the race

  On 3/5/2020 at 11:07 AM, Candiru said:

Weird. The RNC actually wanted their voters to register as Dems and vote for Bernie for that exact reason. 

Trump wanted to run against Bernie. Ask yourself why.

I didn't pry so IDK where they got the idea. It could just be a coincidence as everyone knows everyone for the most part.

this also occurred yesterday

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/protester-interrupts-bernie-sanders-rally-nazi-flag-anti-semitism/

it's going to get uglier and uglier

  On 3/6/2020 at 8:56 AM, Nebraska said:

he's not pushing for bernie to win: he's simply pointing out to the corruption of the "swamp". stealing the nomination from bernie is an example of how the DNC cannibalizes their own; similar to how the left attacked jk rowling and stephen king not too long ago when their tweets didn't appeal to the accepted narrative. 
it also helps him appeal to bernie supporters, should he loose.

i'm not sure if you're understanding that the DNC is funded by donor money- which makes it corrupt because it is beholden to the highest bidder. so biden isn't the choice you have (or rather we have) but the choice we're given. sanders is a choice we can make. trump is the choice we have to live with.

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Trump loves to negotiate and have a "challenge" - that's a more irrational reason he prefers Sanders along with what Nebraska said. Bear in mind Sanders is the only candidate Trump hasn't given a nasty and effective nickname, he calls him "crazy Bernie" - that's not damning nor even an insult. 

  On 3/6/2020 at 10:28 PM, joshuatxuk said:

this also occurred yesterday

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/protester-interrupts-bernie-sanders-rally-nazi-flag-anti-semitism/

it's going to get uglier and uglier

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that's not a nazi flag though, the swastika is facing left instead of right. just saying

  On 3/6/2020 at 7:29 AM, goDel said:

The unfortunate thing about that analysis is that it never mentions anything about absolute turnout. It might still be the case that in absolute terms the turnout amongst young voters might exceed those of the past, but compaired to the turnout of the older voters is still relatively lacking. 

And this absolute turnout is what is going to matter during the general election. 

I've read some analysis of 2020 Sanders having lower turnout than 2016 Sanders. In absolute numbers, that is. If true, I'd consider that an electability issue. Especially when the overall turnout in this primary is higher than the 2016 primary. Consider this speculation though, as I'm still waiting for a good final analysis that goes beyond punditry. (Waiting for 538)

 

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Yeah I can't deny that Bernie's base of young people is problematic because of their historic apathy, which the primary confirmed still exists, but it's being overblown. Overblown news reports go back into a narrative that just becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Biden's base has similar traits as the GOP - boomers, retirees, etc. Biden doesn't so much have the black vote, he has the older black vote. 

On a similar note Sanders does much better with the other big growing demographic, Latinos and non-white immigrants. That's how he scored a massive win in otherwise conservative leaning Nevada. Just like the youth vote Latinos and immigrants have historically low turnout for the same reasons: they are overworked, lack access to transportation, and their polling places are understaffed and underserved.

  On 3/6/2020 at 10:39 PM, brian trageskin said:

that's not a nazi flag though, the swastika is facing left instead of right. just saying

lol, probably a mirrored image

If Bernie did anything right, it’s that he paved the way for a younger, more capable, more politically savvy candidate somewhere down the line that checks the same boxes for people but doesn’t talk about socialism when there was absolutely no reason to. 

Another American election, another choice between rich elderly white dudes with dementia not far off.

  On 3/6/2020 at 10:40 PM, joshuatxuk said:

Biden's base has similar traits as the GOP - boomers, retirees, etc. Biden doesn't so much have the black vote, he has the older black vote. 

this wasn't entirely true on Tuesday. what was surprising about how big his comeback was was the degree to which he won over young people, working class folks, women, it wasn't just the boomers (which admittedly are his base). Sanders still did better than him in most of those categories, but Biden did far better than expected. which indicates given a choice between him and Trump, there wouldn't be a big problem bringing along most of Bernie's supporters, and no problem at all with Warren's.

  On 3/6/2020 at 11:32 PM, Roo said:

Another American election, another choice between rich elderly white dudes with dementia not far off.

  On 3/6/2020 at 10:40 PM, joshuatxuk said:

Yeah I can't deny that Bernie's base of young people is problematic because of their historic apathy, which the primary confirmed still exists, but it's being overblown. Overblown news reports go back into a narrative that just becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Biden's base has similar traits as the GOP - boomers, retirees, etc. Biden doesn't so much have the black vote, he has the older black vote. 

On a similar note Sanders does much better with the other big growing demographic, Latinos and non-white immigrants. That's how he scored a massive win in otherwise conservative leaning Nevada. Just like the youth vote Latinos and immigrants have historically low turnout for the same reasons: they are overworked, lack access to transportation, and their polling places are understaffed and underserved.

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it's not Bernie's young voters, or 2020 young voters 'being tied to a gig economy or in service industry jobs' that's the problem: younger voters have for many years, if not forever, been unreliable. relying on the youth to turn out and vote is going to fail almost every time. that's why Bernie couldn't clinch in '16 or this year. 

surely not saying access to easy voting isn't an issue, and doesn't disproportionately effect poor/minorities/younger people for those reasons listed. but it's not an excuse for 18-30somethings being generally unreliable, that's always been the case no matter the type of voting or ease of access or whatever else. 

*(note this is for what i've seen data about over the years. if there's instances where i'm mistaken would be curious to hear them.

  On 3/6/2020 at 6:21 PM, darreichungsform said:

Yes, but still, if you plan on voting Trump I'd rather see you stay home instead.

 

 

I understand that you'd rather see someone who is going to vote for someone you are not a fan of stay home instead but it's not how it works

  On 3/7/2020 at 10:22 AM, thumbass said:

  On 3/6/2020 at 6:21 PM, darreichungsform said:

Yes, but still, if you plan on voting Trump I'd rather see you stay home instead.

I understand that you'd rather see someone who is going to vote for someone you are not a fan of stay home instead but it's not how it works

not yet 

  On 3/7/2020 at 10:26 AM, MIXL2 said:

not yet 

i hope you're joking lol. of course this is never actually going to come to pass

  On 3/7/2020 at 10:48 AM, thumbass said:

  On 3/7/2020 at 10:26 AM, MIXL2 said:

not yet 

i hope you're joking lol. of course this is never actually going to come to pass

u say that man, but idk.. isn't china literally genociding right now? everyday it feels like its more likely that countries will go full authoritarian in the near/medium future rather than stay democratic.. hopefully it's just media alarmism but idk...

  On 3/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, MIXL2 said:

u say that man, but idk.. isn't china literally genociding right now? everyday it feels like its more likely that countries will go full authoritarian in the near/medium future rather than stay democratic.. hopefully it's just media alarmism but idk...

i understand your points on china, but i was talking about the US in particular. but that wasnt really clear

  On 3/7/2020 at 11:27 AM, thumbass said:

  On 3/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, MIXL2 said:

u say that man, but idk.. isn't china literally genociding right now? everyday it feels like its more likely that countries will go full authoritarian in the near/medium future rather than stay democratic.. hopefully it's just media alarmism but idk...

i understand your points on china, but i was talking about the US in particular. but that wasnt really clear

4 more years of trump and I swear pigs could start flying or some shit, who knows what will happen.

as a long-time foreign-policy geek, my issue with DJ tump has been that he is mentally ill and evinces a corrupt and dishonest lifestyle, and that bodes ill for the sensitive and consequential aspects of the role. the GOP nominated the exact worst nightmare of the founding fathers. he was only not removed from office because the GOP themselves are so corrupt and they control the senate. obstruction of justice, abuse of power, trying to start a war with iran, squandering the potential for a nuclear deal with NK, bungling the pandemic response, losing the kids of people lawfully seeking asylum, these are things of gravity. 

was cool to see this in the news: federal judge can't reconcile bill barr's summary of mueller report with the report itself