NOT Coronavirus COVID-19

nobody takes this fake manufactured china virus more serious than trump international resort in miami

  On 8/17/2021 at 10:54 PM, Nebraska said:

nobody takes this fake manufactured china virus more serious than trump international resort in miami

Expand  

Who the fuck cares

dude...no one cares more about the health and well-being of Trump International hotel guests than the forum denizens at this here watmm dot com...

can't wait for the memes.. and the remix

Got my second shot. Not gonna let go of the mask any time soon though. 

  On 8/16/2021 at 8:55 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

Reason? You think this lack of civility is a result of lack of reasoning?

  Quote

covid deniers and climate activists are different kinds of people, but they’re united in their frustration with the systems built by experts on our behalf—both groups picture élites shuffling PowerPoint decks in Davos while the world burns. From this perspective, the root cause of mass irrationality is the failure of rationalists. People would believe in the system if it actually made sense.

And yet modern life would be impossible without those rational systems; we must improve them, not reject them. We have no choice but to wrestle with rationality—an ideal that, the sociologist Max Weber wrote, “contains within itself a world of contradictions.” We want to live in a more rational society, but not in a falsely rationalized one. We want to be more rational as individuals, but not to overdo it. We need to know when to think and when to stop thinking, when to doubt and when to trust. Rationality is one of humanity’s superpowers. How do we keep from misusing it?

[...]

Bayesian reasoning implies a few “best practices.” Start with the big picture, fixing it firmly in your mind. Be cautious as you integrate new information, and don’t jump to conclusions. Notice when new data points do and do not alter your baseline assumptions (most of the time, they won’t alter them), but keep track of how often those assumptions seem contradicted by what’s new. Beware the power of alarming news, and proceed by putting it in a broader, real-world context.

In a sense, the core principle is mise en place. Keep the cooked information over here and the raw information over there; remember that raw ingredients often reduce over heat. But the real power of the Bayesian approach isn’t procedural; it’s that it replaces the facts in our minds with probabilities. Where others might be completely convinced that G.M.O.s are bad, or that Jack is trustworthy, or that the enemy is Eurasia, a Bayesian assigns probabilities to these propositions. She doesn’t build an immovable world view; instead, by continually updating her probabilities, she inches closer to a more useful account of reality. The cooking is never done.

[...]

In Silicon Valley, people wear T-shirts that say “Update Your Priors,” but talking like a rationalist doesn’t make you one. A person can drone on about base rates with which he’s only loosely familiar, or say that he’s revising his priors when, in fact, he has only ordinary, settled opinions. Google makes it easy to project faux omniscience. A rationalist can give others and himself the impression of having read and digested a whole academic subspecialty, as though he’d earned a Ph.D. in a week; still, he won’t know which researchers are trusted by their colleagues and which are ignored, or what was said after hours at last year’s conference. There’s a difference between reading about surgery and actually being a surgeon, and the surgeon’s priors are what we really care about. In a recent interview, Cowen—a superhuman reader whose blog, Marginal Revolution, is a daily destination for info-hungry rationalists—told Ezra Klein that the rationality movement has adopted an “extremely culturally specific way of viewing the world.” It’s the culture, more or less, of winning arguments in Web forums. Cowen suggested that to understand reality you must not just read about it but see it firsthand; he has grounded his priors in visits to about a hundred countries, once getting caught in a shoot-out between a Brazilian drug gang and the police.

Expand  

Why Is It So Hard to Be Rational? (The New Yorker)

And I would still contend that fear is a prime motivator here.  People that do not want this drug are going to lose their jobs, and thus not be able to support themselves and those that depend on them. And for what? Seriously, I know many here aren’t biologists, but look around you, do you really think if they just vaccinated the rest of the population that we’d stop getting sick from it? Look at Israel as a case study. During one of their recent upticks 90-95% of hospitalizations were amongst vaccinated individuals.  I know there’s conflicting evidence being bantied about rn, but natural immunity > pharmacologically stimulated immunity as far as I’m concerned (in this case, not talking about vaccines in general), and a significant portion of the population agrees. ffs they’re already talking about boosters because these drugs have quickly waning efficacy. And look, I know nobody posting in this thread wants to agree with me, and I’m not trying to prove anything to anybody, and I’d much rather just go on about my merry life without having to stir shit with random strangers on the internet, but these are increasingly dangerous times we’re living in and people are scared, and that fear can easily lead to violence. A deescalation would be nice but I don’t see that happening atm. Governments around the world have already announced their intentions to mandate vaccinations as soon as the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine is approved by the fda, and that’s anticipated to happen in a few weeks. So yeah, people are scared and that fear is already turning into violence, as you witnessed in the video where you so callously attributed it to us troglodytes dragging our knuckles around. My experience is that people everywhere are wonderful, but fear can turn the most wonderful person into something to be feared (or hated, which is often the point where state sactioned violence comes in).

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

I know many here aren’t biologists, but look around you, do you really think if they just vaccinated the rest of the population that we’d stop getting sick from it? Look at Israel as a case study. During one of their recent upticks 90-95% of hospitalizations were amongst vaccinated individuals. [...] natural immunity > pharmacologically stimulated immunity as far as I’m concerned (in this case, not talking about vaccines in general), and a significant portion of the population agrees

Show me the hard data on all of these - 90-95 % vaccinated hospitalizations, natural immunity better than stimulated, (statistically) significant portion of population agreeing that it is - otherwise they're just anecdotal and not to be taken seriously.

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

Governments around the world have already announced their intentions to mandate vaccinations as soon as the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine is approved by the fda, and that’s anticipated to happen in a few weeks.

Conjecture. Show facts and/or data from reputable, verifiable sources.

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

do you really think if they just vaccinated the rest of the population that we’d stop getting sick from it?

No, as discussed before COVID will become endemic, it will keep circulating forever within the world population like the flu does. We will not get rid of it, ever. It's probable no-one will be able to avoid it, and the only way to lessen the impact is to vaccinate everyone because it greatly reduces the harmful effects (proper, side, and after) of the disease. It's possible COVID vaccinations need to be administered annually to keep the societal effects to a minimum like we do with the flu: the shots are statistically much less effective than COVID vaccinations and a flu shot is definitely no guarantee you won't get it because there are so many variants. Those not getting vaccinated against COVID will suffer the most, like they do at the moment. I find it irrational and selfishly reckless, dangerous even - to themselves, any and all around them - to choose not to get vaccinated against COVID.

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

And I would still contend that fear is a prime motivator here. 

fear definitely motivates people to take action. fear of getting sick, and possibly death, caused just about all of us to stay inside and avoid all contact with others roughly 1.5 years ago. but that type of fear is fear of the unknown. no one really knew wtf was going to happen in the next few days, weeks, ahead, and what exactly this virus was capable of. the type of fear you are alluding to (I think), is misdirected anger caused by non-factual bullshit being spewed over the internet.

this is the problem we are faced with now. people are trusting snippets of internet posts as fact. they are drawing conclusions (incorrectly) based on what others are passing around on social media. hardly any of it is rooted in reality, but one little bit may make sense to someone, and then it snowballs from there. IMO this inability to filter out the BS from the truth is due to a lack of critical thinking ability, reasoning skills, and as I've said many times before here, a lack of general common sense amongst large swaths of the population. how did we get here? rise of internet/social media. how do we fix it? well, a start is to try and stop the BS from being shared, like what twitter/FB, etc. have attempted to do. but that is only a band aid. the bigger question here is how do we change people's ability to better filter and disseminate information... 

one ‘can contend that fear is the prime motivator’ for basically anything any adult human does. 

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

do you really think if they just vaccinated the rest of the population that we’d stop getting sick from it?

Do you think that if everyone drives with safety belts on, no-one will get seriously injured in a car accident? And yet, with safety belt is better than without, right?

Same with vaccines. You can't just point at statistics where everyone that needs to go to the hospital even though they wore a safety belt, and conclude "see, it doesn't help! Everyone currently in hospital had their safety belt on, that's proof that safety belts don't work!".

Even in Israel it's clear that vaccinated people have a far lower risk ending up in a hospital than unvaccinated people. There's no evidence to the contrary whatsoever. The only discussion - currently, as far as im aware - is about the effictiveness when it comes to the delta variant.

If you look at the most recent results from the UK, I don't see much to worry about, tbh.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article

  Quote

Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.

Also, policies to get people vaccinated are just about as much based on fear as policies to get people to drive with a safety belt on. Or to stop smoking. Or to eat healthy.

The vaccine mandate should signify the importance to get everyone vaccinated. Although it's clear that there's roughly 14% of the population who will not budge at any argument whatsoever. The polls have shown the size of the group of people vehemently against getting a vaccine is stable. And there isn't anything making a real change. No matter how much data or science you present them. There's been billions of people vaccinated already, but they still know better. They say.

I'm expecting they'll make the same arguments in 10 years time. Even if there's nothing to indicate there's anything wrong with these vaccines. This hasn't got anything to do with reason, imo. It's pure emotion. Or a blind ambition to test their personal immune system.

https://apnews.com/article/health-education-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-729eab041e8e4ce3e9f52a98ad63f145

  Quote

Many of Florida’s largest school districts are finding it difficult because of the pandemic to hire enough bus drivers, with some using managers and other stop-gap measures to get students to class as the new school year begins.

The Associated Press contacted most of the state’s 20 largest districts Monday and many said they have not been able to fully fill their openings, forcing some drivers to handle extra routes. Other districts are asking parents to drive their children to and from school when possible to reduce the numbers requiring busing or putting transportation department managers back behind the wheel.

Florida has been hard hit by the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic, and that has likely scared off candidates for a job that can be stressful under normal circumstances. Many districts are not requiring masks on buses, but even districts that do are short drivers.

Expand  

I live in Florida in an area having a problem with schools and covid. It's completely crazy driving in the morning now as roads are packed with people driving their kids to school and no school buses in sight. Some people here are religious about their kids not wearing masks.

  On 8/17/2021 at 8:43 PM, ignatius said:

flexed my cancer privilege and got 3rd dose of pfizer vaccine this morning. arm sore. a little tired but feeling pretty normal.  

I’m considering doing the same, but I won’t be 8 months out til December.

  On 8/18/2021 at 4:41 PM, acid1 said:

https://apnews.com/article/health-education-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-729eab041e8e4ce3e9f52a98ad63f145

I live in Florida in an area having a problem with schools and covid. It's completely crazy driving in the morning now as roads are packed with people driving their kids to school and no school buses in sight. Some people here are religious about their kids not wearing masks.

What city are you in? Jacksonville has been a complete shit show, even being the epicenter of the Florida surge, not a goddamn mask in sight. 

  On 8/18/2021 at 4:30 PM, Satans Little Helper said:

The polls have shown the size of the group of people vehemently against getting a vaccine is stable. And there isn't anything making a real change. No matter how much data or science you present them. There's been billions of people vaccinated already, but they still know better. They say.

I'm expecting they'll make the same arguments in 10 years time. Even if there's nothing to indicate there's anything wrong with these vaccines. This hasn't got anything to do with reason, imo. It's pure emotion. Or a blind ambition to test their personal immune system.

 

Expand  

  On 7/28/2021 at 11:45 PM, randomsummer said:

Just heard about this study today.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2018/dec/radicals-arent-good-knowing-when-theyre-wrong

People who hold radical political views – at either end of the political spectrum – aren’t as good as moderates at knowing when they’re wrong, even about something unrelated to politics, finds a new UCL study.

It seems these people who hold these radical beliefs are "metacognitively impaired" (my made-up description), which means it's innate and very difficult for them to realize and admit when they're wrong about anything. Basically, they'll always be fucking it up for the rest of us with COVID and there's little we can do about it outside of mandating vaccines or providing much greater invectives (my take, not the authors').

Expand  

I'm guessing that many of these people you are talking about are the ones described in the above study.  Basically, these people make a decision based on whatever, and the part of their brain that is supposed to gauge how confident they are in that decision just doesn't work like the rest of us, and they're stubbornly overconfident about that decision, even when presented with clear evidence that their decision was incorrect.  This was measured in a simple counting task that had nothing to do with politics, so imagine what it's like when the decisions involve more emotionally-charged subjects.

Being stubbornly overconfident is probably the right attitude to survive the zombie apocalypse. I'll give them that. ;D

  On 8/18/2021 at 4:44 PM, Rubin Farr said:

I’m considering doing the same, but I won’t be 8 months out til December.

for cancer people you don't have to wait. i guess because the immune response from 2 doses isn't sufficient and it takes a 3rd dose. for some people. 

i'm only 4 months out. i sent a message to my doc and asked if i should get a 3rd shot then decided not to wait for a reply and just go get it. i know my immune system has been hammered, the last 2 months especially, from radiation. the form they had me fill out is pretty clear about eligibility requirements. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/immuno.html

Currently, CDC is recommending that moderately to severely immunocompromised people receive an additional dose. This includes people who have:

• Been receiving active cancer treatment for tumors or cancers of the blood
• Received an organ transplant and are taking medicine to suppress the immune system
• Received a stem cell transplant within the last 2 years or are taking medicine to suppress the immune system
• Moderate or severe primary immunodeficiency (such as DiGeorge syndrome, Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome)
• Advanced or untreated HIV infection
• Active treatment with high-dose corticosteroids or other drugs that may suppress your immune response

People should talk to their healthcare provider about their medical condition, and whether getting an additional dose is appropriate for them.

  Quote

The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.

-- Charles Bukowski

  On 8/18/2021 at 7:42 PM, dcom said:

 

Not to be pedantic or argumentative, but I think it's important to point out that in that study the impairment in metacognitive sensitivity did not seem to correlate with IQ.  I guess it depends on how you define "stupid", though.  I could easily get on board with "stupid" being defined as those who lack critical thinking ability as opposed to those with low IQ.

  On 8/18/2021 at 8:33 PM, randomsummer said:

Not to be pedantic or argumentative, but I think it's important to point out that in that study the impairment in metacognitive sensitivity did not seem to correlate with IQ.  I guess it depends on how you define "stupid", though.  I could easily get on board with "stupid" being defined as those who lack critical thinking ability as opposed to those with low IQ.

It's a quote from a drunkard, belligerent, womanizing - not to mention dead - literary figure, not a scientific statement of fact, but I can throw in a pair of other names: Dunning & Kruger. Smart, intelligent people have their own category of stupid: cognitive biases; not to say that it's not a problem with, let's say, cognitively challenged, but smart, intelligent people are as unaware of their biases as everyone else. There are extreme rationalists who are aware of them and can circumvent or avoid them altogether (this was referred to in the article I linked to above), but it's very difficult and time-consuming, requiring stringent and prolonged use of Kahn's System 2. In other news -

My stepdad still refusing his vaccination because it will alter his DNA. This means my sister is refusing my mom to look after her kid. She doesn't want him in the same house as mom and stepdad. It's got my mom upset.... This is going to effect holidays and family gatherings. 

  On 8/19/2021 at 1:10 AM, yekker said:

My stepdad still refusing his vaccination because it will alter his DNA. This means my sister is refusing my mom to look after her kid. She doesn't want him in the same house as mom and stepdad. It's got my mom upset.... This is going to effect holidays and family gatherings. 

so it goes.  it's pretty easy for them to fix the situation. get the jab. if i were your sister i'd go ahead and tell your mom now "btw, there will be no holiday exceptions."  to rip that bandaid off now and give your mom time to be miserable and work on your stepdad to get the vax or he could ruin the holidays. 

good luck. 

  On 8/19/2021 at 1:36 AM, ignatius said:

so it goes.  it's pretty easy for them to fix the situation. get the jab. if i were your sister i'd go ahead and tell your mom now "btw, there will be no holiday exceptions."  to rip that bandaid off now and give your mom time to be miserable and work on your stepdad to get the vax or he could ruin the holidays. 

good luck. 

Thanks, yeah, I'm going to have a talk with my sis.

Apparently there's another surge in cases in my city. All of the latest COVID deaths reported here were from unvaccinated individuals.

  On 8/18/2021 at 2:43 PM, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

Look at Israel as a case study. During one of their recent upticks 90-95% of hospitalizations were amongst vaccinated individuals.

I looked this up, and your claim is unbased.

  Quote

We see that the current Israeli data provide strong evidence that the Pfizer vaccine is still strongly protecting vs. severe disease, even for the Delta variant, when analyzed properly to stratify by age.

In conclusion, as long as there is a major age disparity in vaccination rates, with older individuals being more highly vaccinated, then the fact that older people have an inherently higher risk of hospitalization when infected with a respiratory virus means that it is always important to stratify results by age; if not the overall efficacy will be biased downwards and a poor representation of how well the vaccine is working in preventing serious disease (the same holds for efficacy vs. death). Even more fundamentally, it is important to use infection and disease rates (per 100k, e.g.) and not raw counts to compare unvaccinated and vaccinated groups to adjust for the proportion vaccinated. Use of raw counts exaggerates the vaccine efficacy when vaccinated proportion is low and attenuates the vaccine efficacy when, like in Israel, vaccines proportions are high.

Expand  

See also Simpson's Paradox and interpreting data.

I'm still waiting for the sources of your other claims.