North Korea

  On 4/19/2017 at 8:02 PM, ambermonk said:

Korean unification...sounds like a dream come true on paper, but in reality could end up doing more harm than good: http://38north.org/2016/06/gtoloraya060916/

 

While it could give long-separated families the chance to reunite, there's also the risk that Northerners would be treated as second-class citizens in a reunification scenario, since the DPRK is more or less considered a rogue state in the RoK's constitution. Plus it could further ramp up regional tensions, particularly between China and the US.

 

Not saying it'll never happen, but it likely won't any time soon.

 

The second class citizen aspect is certainly something to think about, as evidenced by the aftermath of German unification, and the experience of defectors who have made it to the South. But I believe that as awareness of that issue increases in the South, it will be less of a problem over time.

From my point of view, that article is problematic for a number of reasons.

I'll address the author's bullet points I find problematic, though I do wish he could have stuck to one point per bullet.

  Quote

One or more rogue countries or non-state actors could illicitly obtain North Korean-origin weapons of mass destruction (WMD), missiles or related production technologies. An exodus of fighters and refugees may facilitate a massive, uncontrolled outflow of conventional arms.

Sure it's possible that a rogue state or non-state actor could obtain NK WMDs. I'd argue it's probably more likely to happen if NK remains isolated and becomes desperate for cash and starts selling weapons on the sly - it wouldn't be the first time. Why would there be an exodus of fighters and refugees in a peaceful re-unification scenario?

  Quote

A civil conflict or even a guerilla war may take place in the North, with subversive activities spreading to the South and supporting countries. It is naïve to expect that North Korea’s entire population would welcome the “liberation from tyranny” that unification offers; such an expectation is simply not based on a sober analysis of what North Korea’s existing social strata would gain or lose from the arrival of South Korean governance. The elite and the middle class—possibly about 1 million people or roughly 5% of the population, including members of the party, security apparatus, military and a considerable portion of their brainwashed supporters and families—would have no exit strategy and no place in a South-dominated Korea. [emphasis mine] Moreover, they could reasonably expect repercussions for their roles in the previous regime. If even a portion of this group (including trained personnel) resorted to armed resistance, the results could be disastrous. This is not just speculation: the regime has spent decades preparing for a guerilla war, and it likely has a network of well-equipped bases concealed throughout its territory for use by dedicated fighters.

I'll start with the end of this one - the regime has prepared for a guerilla war - against the regime! If the regime has acquiesced to peaceful reunification, then the will not be fighting against the South, and the guerilla war the regime has prepared for will obviously not materialise because one would assume that the guerilla uprising would be against the regime policies. With a change in government, there would be a much lower likelihood of guerilla war arising. As to the point in the middle - this is patent nonsense. The elite and upper middle class he is talking about are probably the least brainwashed groups in NK. Businessmen (and women - egalitarian society comrades!) make up a good percentage of that upper middle class - and they make more than the elite nowadays. These types of people will certainly have a place in a united Korea, and will likely see no reason for an exit strategy (assuming again as the author does, that it is a peaceful reunification and there is no court of law awaiting the elite).

  Quote

South Korea would suffer a huge drain on its resources as it reformed the North Korean economy, virtually building it anew. Meanwhile, North Korea’s population would face a difficult period of adaptation to new market realities. (To understand the magnitude of this adjustment, consider the difficulties that past North Korean refugees have encountered after voluntarily immigrating to the South.) These economic and cultural transitions would likely slow any increase in productivity from the introduction of modern technology and management practices.

Yes, in the short run. Germany also suffered a huge drain on its resources, but their position as one of the top global economies is pretty solid now. North Koreans are aware of markets, although not so much the hyper-capitalism that exists in the South. There are educational efforts underway by foreigners in the North to teach entrepreneurship, modern management practices, and other capitalist practices. North Koreans are not any stupider on average than their southern neighbours, and they seem to have done alright with capitalism.

  Quote

The collateral damage to South Korea’s economy may be significant enough to reduce its international competiveness. A unified Korea could prove less attractive to foreign investors, and it would face the impossibility of swiftly re-educating the North Korean labor force. As a result, Korea could cede its place in global value chains to newly emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. The resulting change of fortune for South Koreans may in turn lead to a growing social dissatisfaction in the South and contribute to a political crisis.

Why would Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and the other giant comglomerates become less competitive? Their resources and R&D schedules are not going to change drastically because of his, neither are their global supply chains. A unified Korea under a peaceful scenario would be significantly more stable than the current situation - and investors seek out stability. Re-education would be necessary, but as mentioned elsewhere - there is no reason North Korean workers cannot be retrained.

The rest of the article is a mess - he scraps his whole "peaceful reunion" premise and goes off into more speculation. If there is unification - US forces no longer have a rationale to be on the peninsula, as their raison d'etre ceases to be. So the fear of US troops deployed close to China goes away, as by and large, Koreans really do not want US troops on their soil.

Oddly, after all his wild speculation, his conclusion I agree with. Engagement is a much more preferable way forward than sanctions, and will ease the unification process.

Sorry Chen, I wasn't exactly sure how credible that article would be to someone more familiar with the affairs of that particular region. I know you've been to DPRK personally.

But you're right about it being mostly speculation. I think unification is still attainable through meetings between DPRK and RoK officials, but of course the most stable approach would take time.

No need to apologise - it's good to think about the negatives of an issue. I just don't think that particular article does a good job of backing up its claims.

And I apologise as well (to all) if it ever seems like I'm being condescending on the issue. The Korean peninsula (and NE Asia in general) is near and dear to my heart, and a good part of my studies revolved around the area. I'm just somewhat passionate about the Peninsula - so I don't always post with the most clarity. I swear I'm not being condescending (well except to compson lol), just a lousy communicator at times.

No worries Chen. I always appreciate a fresh perspective on the matter.

  On 4/17/2017 at 11:02 PM, Rubin Farr said:

It sounds like the US might have sabotaged the missile launch. We probly have capabilities against N Korea that aren't even known yet.

Highly unlikely

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/19/the-united-states-isnt-hacking-north-koreas-missile-launches/

Always great reading your posts about NK, Chen. I've been so fascinated with the whole north and south Korea divide for the longest time. I hope they reunite in my lifetime.

probably posted before but whatevs

2nded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy_YpFIx8pc

seems chill

what a shithole

  On 4/21/2017 at 4:10 PM, Ivan Ooze said:

what a shithole

depends who are, it's a-ok for the top 5% and simple ignorant bliss for those who decent harvest and no question of the status quo...for example in most cities they still cut grass with long shears and scissors - but they probably have no idea lawn mowers exist. 

it's the closest thing to a stark sci-fi dystopia IRL (especially young adult ones with simplified settings) - their rural areas reminds me of The Giver (the book not the film which looked like shit) and the district Katniss is from in Hunger Games

Chen has corrected me about this - the lawnmower thing I heard in some NPR news story as sidenote

Question (Chen may have some good input on this)...

Does anyone that actually lives there believe for even a second that DPRK has military might comparable to those countries on the world stage (US/Russia/China/India/France etc etc), or believe they're as glorious a country as the propaganda always implies?

I've read a few books that Chen recommended on NK and it sounds like most of the people know it's a shithole. I'm trying to better understand the disconnect between their media and how they present themselves and the reality of how shitty they have it. 

Why hasn't there been a major coup? It seems obvious to me that a cooperative NK would benefit so substantially economically and otherwise.

At work right now, so no long diatribes from me but...

Josh: your description is somewhat simplistic and largely outdated. Which is weird to me, cause usually your posts are excellent on topics like this. Anyways suffice it to say that they do have lawn mowers in NK.

Stevie G: if I could answer those questions in a forum post, I would amaze even myself. Your last question itself could be at least a Master's thesis.

I suppose you're right. If it was a simple answer we wouldn't be where we are with them today I guess.

I just wish all the children would play nice.

  On 4/19/2017 at 10:38 PM, Braintree said:

Why Does North Korea Play Blade Runner-style Music Every Morning?.

 

::::samples overt oppression::::

  On 4/21/2017 at 11:36 AM, triachus said:

probably posted before but whatevs

 

 

yikes

Weird, I've never heard that on either of the occasions I've visited.

The article says it plays at 6am. It may also be at one particular spot in the city.

  On 4/21/2017 at 6:15 PM, chenGOD said:

 Anyways suffice it to say that they do have lawn mowers in NK.

In the video above, you can see a train line. It would be strange to have an inner city train yet not have the technological capacity to invent the lawnmower.

  On 4/21/2017 at 6:15 PM, chenGOD said:

Josh: your description is somewhat simplistic and largely outdated. Which is weird to me, cause usually your posts are excellent on topics like this. Anyways suffice it to say that they do have lawn mowers in NK.

I heard that thing about the shears in some coverage of their 2014 elections via NPR or BBC new (our local public radio affiliate runs both in the afternoons), forget which city/town they were speaking of.

How are people able to visit this country and go on tours and take pictures? 

Chen, I know you've told the story a hundred times but why were you there?

  On 4/21/2017 at 8:08 PM, joshuatx said:

 

  On 4/21/2017 at 6:15 PM, chenGOD said:

Josh: your description is somewhat simplistic and largely outdated. Which is weird to me, cause usually your posts are excellent on topics like this. Anyways suffice it to say that they do have lawn mowers in NK.

 

I heard that thing about the shears in some coverage of their 2014 elections via NPR or BBC new (our local public radio affiliate runs both in the afternoons), forget which city/town they were speaking of.

 

Fair enough - I will say Western media as a whole usually does a pretty shit job of reporting on NK - speculation is so much easier when there's no fear of reprisal.

  On 4/21/2017 at 11:34 PM, Danny O Flannagin said:

How are people able to visit this country and go on tours and take pictures? 

 

Chen, I know you've told the story a hundred times but why were you there?

To visit the country, find a tour group who is going there, throw money at them, and then wake up one day in Pyongyang.

I was there once as a tourist and once helping a friend out with guiding a large group in the country.

  On 4/22/2017 at 6:08 AM, chenGOD said:

 

  On 4/21/2017 at 8:08 PM, joshuatx said:

 

  On 4/21/2017 at 6:15 PM, chenGOD said:

Josh: your description is somewhat simplistic and largely outdated. Which is weird to me, cause usually your posts are excellent on topics like this. Anyways suffice it to say that they do have lawn mowers in NK.

I heard that thing about the shears in some coverage of their 2014 elections via NPR or BBC new (our local public radio affiliate runs both in the afternoons), forget which city/town they were speaking of.

Fair enough - I will say Western media as a whole usually does a pretty shit job of reporting on NK - speculation is so much easier when there's no fear of reprisal.

  On 4/21/2017 at 11:34 PM, Danny O Flannagin said:

How are people able to visit this country and go on tours and take pictures?

 

Chen, I know you've told the story a hundred times but why were you there?

To visit the country, find a tour group who is going there, throw money at them, and then wake up one day in Pyongyang.

 

I was there once as a tourist and once helping a friend out with guiding a large group in the country.

A buddy of mine went years back, before jong-il died. He said his trip to China a year before that was a bigger pain in tha ass paperwork wise. He did it through Koryo tours. Sent me a postcard and he got to take pics and video...all while escorted on guided tours of course.

He did see wood burning trucks in person. Not often but while they we're going to some mountain site. I figured the grass cutting thing was part of his story until chen called me out and i remembered i heard that via a news story.

Koryo tours is legit, I've met the current GM a few times.

They've been around since 1993-might be a bit more expensive than some of the other groups but they are top quality.

Stay away from Young Pioneers if you're thinking of going. Horrible guides and horrible management.

Oh look, US policy in NK is the same as it ever was. And the 100 senators to the White House gambit was political theatre.

http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170427000751315&site=0200000000&mobile

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/27/donald-trumps-north-korea-briefing-was-a-political-stunt-to-get-senators-to-come-to-him-before-the-100-day-mark/

Oh and China approves

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1044525.shtml

Otto Warmbier has died

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/19/politics/otto-warmbier-dies/index.html