Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)

Sounds like the war drums are starting

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/index.html

Saw this earlier:

https://wqad.com/2020/01/06/selective-service-system-website-crashes-amid-questions-fears-of-another-military-draft/

^^ that (in regards to LM_Texas) certainly wouldn't be nice. especially at this time, since he's also enjoying his status as "number one" one facebook

I wouldn't fly commercial right now

Why is Iran such an issue, anyway? Pakistan has nukes and that dump is barely held together with gum and toothpicks. 

I think saudi arabia controls the white house and has for a while. What's the first thing a new president does. Goes over there and kisses them on the lips. Literally

and sanctions are immoral. It does nothing but hurt innocent people and it isn't effective.

It's definitely not a bad thing that Soleimani guy is dead. He was actually a force to be reckoned with and it's not like they can just move someone up the ladder, replace him and be just as effective. 

why can’t the shitty people just get punished already so all the innocents don’t suffer? I’m very scared about what’s going to happen 

  On 1/8/2020 at 2:38 AM, marf said:

I wouldn't fly commercial right now

Why is Iran such an issue, anyway? Pakistan has nukes and that dump is barely held together with gum and toothpicks. 

I think saudi arabia controls the white house and has for a while. What's the first thing a new president does. Goes over there and kisses them on the lips. Literally

and sanctions are immoral. It does nothing but hurt innocent people and it isn't effective.

 

Expand  

Yes, the Saudis are heavily involved in Wallstreet which controls the American politics. And Saudi-Arabia and Iran have been something like archenemies for a while.

Iran's retaliation seems to have been a bit of a damp squib. They damaged some planes and killed some Iraqi soldiers. Doubt Trump will strike back again if that's all they've got.

gaddafi blew up an airliner. You know how they love to blow up airplanes. 

Its only ben a few days

  On 1/8/2020 at 3:38 AM, marf said:

gaddafi blew up an airliner. You know how they love to blow up airplanes. 

Its only ben a few days

actually that's still debatable and the CIA still holds syrian militants responsible for it and it fits with Assad's MO. apparently Gaddafi just claimed the responsibility for the street cred internationally.  This is one of those things that obviously is controversial and is going to upset a lot of people. even Adam Curtis came out in his doc saying it was Assad and not Gaddafi. 

it's worth mentioning since w/all this shit we're going to get a narrative. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10532134/CIA-held-Syrian-militants-responsible-for-Lockerbie-bombing.html

  Quote

 

Muammar Gaddafi's Libyan regime was publicly blamed by the US for the attack, and Abdelbaset al-Megrahi was convicted of the bombing in 2001. He was later released and died last year in Libya. 

But serious doubts about the conviction have been raised by investigative journalists for several years, centring on forensic evidence, and Libya has strenuously denied involvement. 

The PFLP-GC were in fact the first prime suspects in the investigation. 

Experts suggested it may have been ordered by the Iranian government as revenge for the accidental shooting down of an Iranian passenger jet by a US battleship months earlier, killing 290. 

They added that blame may have been diverted from Iran in order to protect secret and delicate negotiations by George Bush's US administration over western hostages. 

Dr Fuisz, a businessman who is said to have been a senior US intelligence asset in the Middle East in the 1980s and 90s, said that the Syrian officials he spoke to interacted with Jibril "on a constant basis" and that he was widely regarded to be the mastermind behind the bombing. 

Asked who the Syrian officials cited as their source for the information, he said: "My recollection is they were direct. They were not hearsay sources on their part." Asked if that he understood that to mean that he was "being told by members of the Syrian government that Jibril, and or members of the PFLGC were taking credit for the bombing," he replied: "Yes".

 

Expand  

  On 1/8/2020 at 2:56 AM, caze said:

Iran's retaliation seems to have been a bit of a damp squib. They damaged some planes and killed some Iraqi soldiers. Doubt Trump will strike back again if that's all they've got.

...apparently the earlier reports of Iraqi casualties was incorrect, which is nice.

i wouldn't be surprised if Iran is just trying to save face for now maybe.. perhaps they'll do something more substantial down the road after tempers chill. 

i wouldn't be surprised if trump properties somewhere get attacked. a hotel or something. i think iran is aware that he's a bit crazy and would quite possibly follow up on his twitter threats. 

Edit: actually thinking about it more.. who knows.. we may see a spree of attacks in various forms. and all the talking heads are calling this the start of the "escalation ladder" and that we need to win that rise up the ladder. 

off. wtf. a shitty mess. 

Fuck me. Idk where my sanity is right now.

I knew this asshole would try to drag us into another war close to the next election cycle. Frankly I hope he gets a ballistic missile up his ass and up to the stratosphere, I don't even care anymore. I'm sick of rich, powerful assholes always getting their way at everyone else's expense.

but there hasn't been any loss of US life in these attacks?

even though the Iranians are claiming otherwise...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/08/irans-assault-on-us-bases-in-iraq-might-satisfy-both-sides

  Quote

In their immediate aftermath, the attacks appear to have been carefully calibrated to avoid US casualties – fired at bases that were already on high alert.

Iran’s foreign minister has said the strikes have concluded and characterised them as self-defence within the boundaries of international law – not the first shots in a war.

Trump, in his first comments after the strikes, also sought to play them down.

If Trump’s assessment of the damage holds, Wednesday’s strikes might be an opportunity for both sides to de-escalate without losing face. Iran will be able to say it took violent revenge for Suleimani’s death and pivot to a campaign of proxy warfare – with which it feels more comfortable, against a vastly more powerful adversary – and diplomatic pressure to eject American forces from Iraq.

The US can also step back, shrugging off the retaliation as being of no significant consequence. That is the best-case scenario, but it rests on two risky premises: that more than a dozen missiles struck bases hosting US military personnel without substantial damage or casualties; and that the White House will resist any urge to respond.

Expand  

every US base in iraq is on high alert for a while now though. 

apparently the missiles can be detected within 30 seconds of being fired. the bases have all been fortified recently to better withstand missile attacks like these. the early warning systems are good. it gives soldiers 3-4 minutes to go for cover. it takes 7 minutes or so for the missiles to arrive at the targets. they're all prepared/briefed/trained to deal w/this kind of shit. 

still keeping fingers crossed we collectively avert catastrophe. 

  On 5/8/2019 at 10:38 AM, darreichungsform said:

And Iran war gets more likely everyday.

  On 5/8/2019 at 8:32 PM, goDel said:

Who's going to support the US (besides Israel and some Arab states)? I don't think the EU will support this. Or China. Or Russia. To name a few.

Also, does it even make sense in the context of 2020? Trump is an opportunist. He's thinking in 2020-mode. Threatening and posturing towards Iran is good for his supporters (in the US, and in Israel/arab states). They like him behaving like an asshole. But actually starting a war, I don't think that'll sit well with them.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my take is this is Trump being a bully. The dog is barking but it's not going to bite.

Expand  

  On 5/9/2019 at 9:00 AM, darreichungsform said:

Well, Israel is already bombing Iranians in Syria and has a huge influence on US politics. Saudi Arabia is bombing Iranian affiliated groups in Yemen. And Europe is totally spineless when it comes to the US. They might not actively participate but provide aerial reconnaissance and such

It doesn't have to make sense, there is a lot of ideology involved plus interests of the military-industrial complex. And it doesn't have to be 2020. Right now a war doesn't seem too likely but with some preparation the political climate could have shifted further than you would think in a few years. Also, it's not just about Trump. American government loves war to bits, almost doesn't matter which president is in power

Expand  

@goDel

I was right. Say it. Say: "You were right". *whips out dick and starts massaging glans"

  Quote

Europe is totally spineless when it comes to the US. They might not actively participate but provide aerial reconnaissance and such

The attack was done via the relay station Ramstein (like all attacks in the Middle East and north Africa).

croatia, germany, and canada are, at least temporarily, moving troops out of iraq, following trump's strike on soleimani, which totally didn't decrease security in the region.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/middleeast/nato-troops-iraq.html

That Ukrainian Intl Airlines plane - likely shot down as well right?

Wreckage shows the telltale holes of wolfram shrapnel from your typical AA missile. Looks like a misfire by antsy Iranian military. 

it had just taken off from tehran airport. it was on fire when it was going down.

here's the first tweet mentioning "ukrainian airlines," time-stamped 3:22am UTC time.

first reports of iranian missiles fired were around 11pm UTC time. between 11:30 and 12am UTC, reports of their impacts started coming out, impacts at Erbil air force base and the Ain Al Asad base.

there were reports of a second round of missiles fired from iran, around 12am UTC time.

i was watching tweetdeck.twitter.com during this. i was watching for reports of impacts from this second round. i did not notice any from reputable sources, but i may have missed it.

flight ps752 took off from tehran at 2:42 am UTC time and lost contact a couple minutes later. if iran had launched anti-air missiles at 12am, i don't think they would still be flying around at 2:42am.

there were reports of iran fighter jets taking off at 1:08am UTC. 

iranian FM announced they were done at 2:32am UTC

trump announces "all is well" at 2:45am UTC

i'm also seeing people saying that photos of wreckage seem to indicate shrapnel damage.

there's the results of some research into @StephenG's question. TLDR: unclear, but not unlikely it was inadvertently taken down by iranian air defense.

At 8,000 ft and disappears off radar? Seems likely, but whether or not it was intentional is a different story, as there were Iranians on board.

  On 1/7/2020 at 10:59 PM, caze said:

 

 

It's not the US's fault the region is filled with numerous violent fascist groups of various stripes, which prevented the stabilisation of the country. 

Oil is not the reason behind any of this, the US does not rely of the region's oil as it's one of the world's biggest oil exporters itself (and they only have about 15% of Iraq's output tied to US companies in the most recent contracts, Russian companies have about the same, the UK a bit more; Iraq keeps 25% of everything produced, plus the taxes on all profits). There is a sense in which it's important to the US and the global economy to keep Iraqi oil production going, this isn't to line the pockets of elites though, it's important to everyone and especially important to the Iraqis as it funds their economic development. Even after the US military leaves Iraq a whole host of countries, including from the US, will continue to be awarded contracts for developing oil fields and building out processing infrastructure, this is essential for Iraq because they're at capacity and require significant infrastructure development (especially when it comes to gas), something they don't have the know how or the funds to do themselves.

Expand  

It might not be solely the fault of the US that the region is in a state of utter disrepair, but their foreign policy in the region has been extremely disruptive. 
 

The US is a net importer of oil. Iraq makes up about 5% of total imports. Saudi Arabia about 9%. If Iraq’s production slows down, and if Saudi Arabia is affected by the conflict at all, that’s another pressure point on US supply of imports. Expect oil prices to rise. 
 

live rn https://strims.gg/angelthump/news1