Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)

I wanted to visit Iran this year. Seems to be a bad idea

  On 1/8/2020 at 7:38 AM, ignatius said:

every US base in iraq is on high alert for a while now though. 

apparently the missiles can be detected within 30 seconds of being fired. the bases have all been fortified recently to better withstand missile attacks like these. the early warning systems are good. it gives soldiers 3-4 minutes to go for cover. it takes 7 minutes or so for the missiles to arrive at the targets. they're all prepared/briefed/trained to deal w/this kind of shit. 

still keeping fingers crossed we collectively avert catastrophe. 

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Yeah the anti-rocket tech available now is incredible.

The Ukraine Airliner crash could very well be a coincidence but that said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Shootdown_of_Flight_655

this guy should chime in on twitter about the current president

  On 1/8/2020 at 5:58 PM, joshuatxuk said:

Yeah the anti-rocket tech available now is incredible.

The Ukraine Airliner crash could very well be a coincidence but that said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Shootdown_of_Flight_655

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Looks like some future tech from 50 years in the future.

  On 1/8/2020 at 5:09 PM, chenGOD said:

The US is a net importer of oil.

Nope, not any more: 

https://www.ft.com/content/9cbba7b0-12dd-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a

  On 1/8/2020 at 7:04 PM, caze said:

Nope, not any more: 

https://www.ft.com/content/9cbba7b0-12dd-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a

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Nope, they still are:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

For the week ending 01/03/20 (thousands barrels per day):

Total Imports - 8,843

Total Exports - 8,233

Net Imports - 610

Where it really gets interesting though is in the break down of crude oil vs products.

For the same week, the US had a net import of 3,666 (thousands/BPD) of crude oil, but they had an import of -3,056 in products.

Now sure, the US has reduced its reliance on imports so there is almost no deficit, and they do have large reserves (largest by country according to one report), but if they have to start going through those reserves (as they are prepared to do) as result of this idiocy, again, expect oil prices to rise. The US doesn't win here, not in any scenario.

You're just cherry picking, if you'd picked the previous week there was a net export amount. The trend is pretty clear, stop splitting hairs. The point is that the US military presence in Iraq has nothing to do with making some elites rich. The only way it relates to oil is in the sense that oil in general is important to the global economy, this has little to do with elites though and more to do with growth, jobs, etc. It's very important to Iraq itself, being a normal functioning member of the international community, using oil to develop and diversify it's economy.

  On 1/8/2020 at 9:45 PM, caze said:

You're just cherry picking, if you'd picked the previous week there was a net export amount. The trend is pretty clear, stop splitting hairs. The point is that the US military presence in Iraq has nothing to do with making some elites rich. The only way it relates to oil is in the sense that oil in general is important to the global economy, this has little to do with elites though and more to do with growth, jobs, etc. It's very important to Iraq itself, being a normal functioning member of the international community, using oil to develop and diversify it's economy.

The points are as follows: a) the US is still very dependent on crude oil imports - which is clear if you look at the link I provided from the EIA. b) Iraq is a member of OPEC which has a serious capacity to disrupt US imports of crude oil, and c) it is about the elites in the sense that the oil companies desire stability, because stability means predictable forecasts. It's not a conspiracy though, if others are implying that. The US military is there to provide that stability, not for any noble cause.

Iraq is not diversifying its economy through oil (>90% of revenues for the country), and there is a real possibility that the country will fall victim to the resource curse.

  On 1/8/2020 at 4:53 AM, ignatius said:

i wouldn't be surprised if Iran is just trying to save face for now maybe.. perhaps they'll do something more substantial down the road after tempers chill. 

yeah I also can't imagine that this is it...or is it? (as donnie would say)

the whole thing seems a little weird. their general is taken out and they fire a couple of rockets back in response? and tell their citizens that 80-100 Americans were killed, when they really weren't? fuck if I know...maybe we can just have a fake war. donnie spins a tale and convinces us that we went to war with Iran and kicked their ass, and Iran tells their people they totally destroyed us. then we move on to the next stupid clown show crises caused by the man baby and his gang of yes men.

Bernie! Bernie!

Or Yang. Or both. Love Yang. 

  On 1/8/2020 at 10:42 PM, zero said:

yeah I also can't imagine that this is it...or is it? (as donnie would say)

the whole thing seems a little weird. their general is taken out and they fire a couple of rockets back in response? and tell their citizens that 80-100 Americans were killed, when they really weren't? fuck if I know...maybe we can just have a fake war. donnie spins a tale and convinces us that we went to war with Iran and kicked their ass, and Iran tells their people they totally destroyed us. then we move on to the next stupid clown show crises caused by the man baby and his gang of yes men.

I like the idea of a fake war.

The Iranians aren't idiots. They know that further escalation will damage them more than the US. At the same time with the attack on the US bases they showed that they can actually be dangerous to American lives if they really have to, without having actually killed Americans. I guess they want to delay the conflict hoping that a different president gets elected in 11 months.

At the end of the day this whole thing only serves Trump's domestic political goals. Unfortunately it will actually help him. The public is forgetful and pliable. All that most people that aren't super interested in politics will remember in a couple of months is that there was something something conflict-related about Iran (some conflict in the Middle East? Pretty much normality by now, no?) and Trump can - depending on the scenario - play the vigorous statesman that prevented a war or mimic a strong leader in a conflict. Petty details like the boundary crossing of the assassination of a paramount leader of a sovereign nation won't matter much in public opinion anymore because until then there will be more fucked up stuff in the news that makes what happened a month earlier seem like it's far back in the past. 

  On 1/8/2020 at 10:38 PM, chenGOD said:

the US is still very dependent on crude oil imports -

to a degree, it would hit their exports somewhat, but it wouldn't be as big a shock to the economy because they are self sufficient in terms of petroleum products. plus, as you say they have big reserves, and are capable of increasing production too, I think there's little chance of the US suffering anywhere near what they suffered in the 70s.

  On 1/8/2020 at 10:38 PM, chenGOD said:

The US military is there to provide that stability, not for any noble cause.

I would say that providing stability is pretty noble, for a country which has spent over a decade lurching from one shit-storm to another.

  On 1/8/2020 at 10:38 PM, chenGOD said:

Iraq is not diversifying its economy through oil (>90% of revenues for the country), and there is a real possibility that the country will fall victim to the resource curse.

Exactly, which is why it's important they do diversify, they can do that by using the profits from the oil (well, if they weren't being ruled by factional corrupt assholes, but in theory they could).

  On 1/9/2020 at 2:27 AM, caze said:

to a degree, it would hit their exports somewhat, but it wouldn't be as big a shock to the economy because they are self sufficient in terms of petroleum products. plus, as you say they have big reserves, and are capable of increasing production too, I think there's little chance of the US suffering anywhere near what they suffered in the 70s.

I would say that providing stability is pretty noble, for a country which has spent over a decade lurching from one shit-storm to another.

Exactly, which is why it's important they do diversify, they can do that by using the profits from the oil (well, if they weren't being ruled by factional corrupt assholes, but in theory they could).

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Fuck this stupid quoting system. Why doesn’t it include the original quotes caze was replying to?

I think the knock on effect of price increases, combined with product substitutability for international consumers will have a bigger impact on the US than you might think. Why do you think Trump blinked in this round of chicken?

providing stability for the people would be noble, but the US military and foreign policy doesn’t give a rats ass about the people. If they did, their foreign aid spending would be a lot more than it is. And considering historical US foreign policy in the region, it’s really the least they can do. 
 

Those corrupt assholes were often chosen by Americans as suitable leaders. Much like the “election” of Syngman Rhee in South Korea after the Korean War. Americans go with who they know, and damn what the people of the country actually want. 

  On 1/9/2020 at 5:12 AM, chenGOD said:

  On 1/9/2020 at 2:27 AM, caze said:

to a degree, it would hit their exports somewhat, but it wouldn't be as big a shock to the economy because they are self sufficient in terms of petroleum products. plus, as you say they have big reserves, and are capable of increasing production too, I think there's little chance of the US suffering anywhere near what they suffered in the 70s.

I would say that providing stability is pretty noble, for a country which has spent over a decade lurching from one shit-storm to another.

Exactly, which is why it's important they do diversify, they can do that by using the profits from the oil (well, if they weren't being ruled by factional corrupt assholes, but in theory they could).

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Fuck this stupid quoting system. Why doesn’t it include the original quotes caze was replying to?

I think the knock on effect of price increases, combined with product substitutability for international consumers will have a bigger impact on the US than you might think. Why do you think Trump blinked in this round of chicken?

providing stability for the people would be noble, but the US military and foreign policy doesn’t give a rats ass about the people. If they did, their foreign aid spending would be a lot more than it is. And considering historical US foreign policy in the region, it’s really the least they can do. 
 

Those corrupt assholes were often chosen by Americans as suitable leaders. Much like the “election” of Syngman Rhee in South Korea after the Korean War. Americans go with who they know, and damn what the people of the country actually want. 

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@chenGOD - yeah, they changed it to stop the endless nesting of quoted quotes, but you can also alternatively highlight both the text and quote in the post, and then a small "quote selection" box will appear (you can also use this to quote selected text from a post). If the quote box is collapsed because it was long, be sure to expand it before doing this otherwise it won't allow you to highlight the quoted text in the post:

video out there of a missile striking that plane =(

  On 1/9/2020 at 10:34 PM, StephenG said:

video out there of a missile striking that plane =(

read a thing from a radar operator about how commercial planes talk to missile systems and if there's a problem w/the thing on the plane that communicates "not a threat" that there's only a couple fail safes in the systems & an inexperienced operator might not catch it.

https://nyti.ms/307EQF2

Great job morons 

  On 1/9/2020 at 10:49 PM, ignatius said:

read a thing from a radar operator about how commercial planes talk to missile systems and if there's a problem w/the thing on the plane that communicates "not a threat" that there's only a couple fail safes in the systems & an inexperienced operator might not catch it.

On which other page did you post the same message?

GOP making sense!? Wuuuuuut?!

pfff those guys are clearly insane. according to donnie, it was the greatest presentation the world has ever seen:

  Quote

“I had calls from numerous senators and numerous congressmen and women saying it was the greatest presentation they’ve ever had,” the president claimed.

I think Iran's strategy here is to play by the book and be mostly defensive, and if the US oversteps their boundary then that affects how the world and the media views them. This Ukrainian plane incident just fucked them hard on that.

  On 1/9/2020 at 11:26 PM, darreichungsform said:

On which other page did you post the same message?

i posted same post as a reply to a friend on twitter.  but the post i read was on reddit in the long thread about the incident. it's typical that people post specific info about their experiences in threads like that to add some context/possibilities or whatever. a few people who claimed to have worked on such systems or in aviation etc had some lot's of info. 

anyways.. also this

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/champagne-iran-plane-crash-1.5420398

  On 1/9/2020 at 11:22 PM, chim said:

https://nyti.ms/307EQF2

Great job morons 

@ignatius Not sure if you saw this.