Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)

  On 8/15/2016 at 11:25 AM, darreichungsform said:

If Trump won that would destroy America which wouldn't be the worst thing for the rest of the world I guess. Only too bad about the 322 million Americans.

I hope you woke up every day and thank America for giving you the technology and freedom to shitpost like his.

  On 8/17/2016 at 2:19 AM, doublename said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 11:25 AM, darreichungsform said:

If Trump won that would destroy America which wouldn't be the worst thing for the rest of the world I guess. Only too bad about the 322 million Americans.

I hope you woke up every day and thank America for giving you the technology and freedom to shitpost like his.

Lolwut?

interesting piece on the relationship between trump and media

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/16/12484644/media-donald-trump

  Quote

Trump’s deteriorating relationship with the press is revealing about Trump himself — about the ways in which an attention-at-all-costs strategy that carried him through the primary has proven maladaptive in the general election. But it’s also interesting as a window into how the political press works, and why it does or doesn’t follow rules of evenhandedness in different circumstances.

  On 8/16/2016 at 11:31 PM, Joyrex said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 10:54 PM, darreichungsform said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 9:50 PM, goDel said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 11:25 AM, darreichungsform said:

If Trump won ...

 

At this point: that would be a bad kind of fiction. He wont win.

 

Also, for people interested, some text from todays fivethirtyeight newsletter:

  Quote

 

Who’s ahead in the polls right now?

Clinton, by a lot.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Who’s ahead in the polls right now?

Clinton, by a lot. National polls that include third-party candidates have Clinton with an average of 44 to 45 percent of the vote, Trump at 36 to 37 percent, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at roughly 9 percent. State polls tell a broadly similar story. Trump’s low percentage of the vote is noteworthy: Every major-party nominee since 1928 has received at least 36.5 percent of the vote. (Democrat John W. Davis got just 28.8 percent in 1924.)

What’s the degree of uncertainty?

Moderate-to-high, although decreasing. The polls are often highly volatile around the party conventions, but they come out of the conventions considerably more accurate than they were beforehand. The question is whether we’re far enough away from the conventions — which concluded on July 28 — that we can no longer attribute Clinton’s lead to some sort of “convention bounce.” There isn’t a hard-and-fast answer to this question, but for what it’s worth, the convention-bounce adjustment applied by our polls-plus model will begin wearing off this week. More importantly, we’re approaching the point where a Trump comeback would be relatively lacking in precedent.

But still, the number of undecided and third-party voters in the polls remains high, which has historically been an indicator of higher volatility. And the conventions concluded relatively early this year, so the comparison to post-convention polling from past years is somewhat imprecise.

What’s the short-term trend in the polls?

There’s room to ask whether Clinton’s lead over Trump has peaked and begun to decline slightly, or whether it’s continuing to grow. The evidence is mixed: You can find polls like this one and this one, where Clinton is at or near her all-time high, but you can also find others like this one and this one, where she’s still doing well but is a bit down from her peak. Overall, our models see Clinton’s position as fairly steady, although it’s possible that Trump is continuing to lose ground to third-party candidates and to the undecided column.

What’s the medium-term trend in the polls?

Clinton has unambiguously gained ground since the conventions, holding a lead of about 8 percentage points now as compared with 3 to 4 points just before the conventions began. There is, however, still some question about where the equilibrium in the race stands. Clinton held a mid-to-high single-digit lead over Trump for most of March, April and June — and now she has one again in August. But the election was apparently closer for much of May and July.

Which states shape up as most important?

The swing states have sorted themselves into order. According to our polls-only model, Clinton has a lead of at least 9 percentage points in states collectively worth 273 electoral votes, including New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin. Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina are closer, by contrast.

This leads to a situation where no one state is overwhelmingly more important than any other. But still, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio hold the top spots according to our tipping-point index. A loss in Florida or Ohio would make Trump’s situation almost impossible. Clinton has a few winning maps without Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, but they’d require her to win at least one state that Barack Obama lost in 2012, most likely North Carolina.

Does one candidate appear to have an overall edge in the Electoral College, relative to his or her position in the popular vote?

This is an academic question until and unless the race tightens substantially. And for the time being, an Electoral College landslide against Trump is at least as likely a prospect as the election coming down to the wire. But if the race does close, Trump is more likely to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote than the other way around, according to our models. Still, this is a relatively narrow advantage and it has been diminishing as Clinton’s polling strengthens in states such as Pennsylvania.

How do the “fundamentals” look?

In the absence of polls, we might look toward factors such as economic conditions to predict the election. They imply that the race ought to be competitive. A stronger economy generally helps the incumbent party’s candidate — in this case, Clinton. But the economic data has been mixed, with relatively strong job growth, a healthy stock market and low inflation on the one hand, but tepid income and GDP growth on the other hand. Still, you should be wary of economic determinism. “Fundamentals”-based models that don’t look at polls have a fairly bad track record, even in years that aren’t as crazy as this one.

How do FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts compare against prediction markets?

Betting markets put Trump’s chances at around 20 percent, which is similar to our polls-plus forecast but more optimistic for Trump than polls-only. I’ll take a pass for now on the question of whether these markets are too optimistic or too pessimistic about Trump’s chances.

What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?

At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.

What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

I might not be sleeping at all. The tactics that helped me to win the primary don’t seem to be working in the general election. My position in the polls is deteriorating from middling to dire. Most acutely, I’d worry about getting cut off by the Republican National Committee or thrown under the bus by down-ballot Republican candidates who are rightly concerned about their own survival. If those things happen, I might not have the resources to win the election even if the debates and the news cycle turn in my favor in September and October.

 

 

If there happened some big terrorist attacks in USA before election it could maybe turn the tide I guess. 

 

I'd almost (sadly) bet money something like that will happen if there is any indication Clinton is a sure victor early before November...

 

Do you think Trump would have the capability to stage Islamist terrorist attacks in order to win? I mean there are people unscrupulous enough to do it if they could I suppose but do they have the power?

  On 8/17/2016 at 2:19 AM, doublename said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 11:25 AM, darreichungsform said:

If Trump won that would destroy America which wouldn't be the worst thing for the rest of the world I guess. Only too bad about the 322 million Americans.

I hope you woke up every day and thank America for giving you the technology and freedom to shitpost like his.

 

Sure, everyday the first thing I do is praising America for giving me freedom and technology

Your gratitude is appreciated, darreichungsform.

https://youtu.be/OMvP-SI0M4c

  On 8/16/2016 at 11:31 PM, Joyrex said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 10:54 PM, darreichungsform said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 9:50 PM, goDel said:

 

  On 8/15/2016 at 11:25 AM, darreichungsform said:

If Trump won ...

 

At this point: that would be a bad kind of fiction. He wont win.

 

Also, for people interested, some text from todays fivethirtyeight newsletter:

  Quote

 

Who’s ahead in the polls right now?

Clinton, by a lot.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Who’s ahead in the polls right now?

Clinton, by a lot. National polls that include third-party candidates have Clinton with an average of 44 to 45 percent of the vote, Trump at 36 to 37 percent, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at roughly 9 percent. State polls tell a broadly similar story. Trump’s low percentage of the vote is noteworthy: Every major-party nominee since 1928 has received at least 36.5 percent of the vote. (Democrat John W. Davis got just 28.8 percent in 1924.)

What’s the degree of uncertainty?

Moderate-to-high, although decreasing. The polls are often highly volatile around the party conventions, but they come out of the conventions considerably more accurate than they were beforehand. The question is whether we’re far enough away from the conventions — which concluded on July 28 — that we can no longer attribute Clinton’s lead to some sort of “convention bounce.” There isn’t a hard-and-fast answer to this question, but for what it’s worth, the convention-bounce adjustment applied by our polls-plus model will begin wearing off this week. More importantly, we’re approaching the point where a Trump comeback would be relatively lacking in precedent.

But still, the number of undecided and third-party voters in the polls remains high, which has historically been an indicator of higher volatility. And the conventions concluded relatively early this year, so the comparison to post-convention polling from past years is somewhat imprecise.

What’s the short-term trend in the polls?

There’s room to ask whether Clinton’s lead over Trump has peaked and begun to decline slightly, or whether it’s continuing to grow. The evidence is mixed: You can find polls like this one and this one, where Clinton is at or near her all-time high, but you can also find others like this one and this one, where she’s still doing well but is a bit down from her peak. Overall, our models see Clinton’s position as fairly steady, although it’s possible that Trump is continuing to lose ground to third-party candidates and to the undecided column.

What’s the medium-term trend in the polls?

Clinton has unambiguously gained ground since the conventions, holding a lead of about 8 percentage points now as compared with 3 to 4 points just before the conventions began. There is, however, still some question about where the equilibrium in the race stands. Clinton held a mid-to-high single-digit lead over Trump for most of March, April and June — and now she has one again in August. But the election was apparently closer for much of May and July.

Which states shape up as most important?

The swing states have sorted themselves into order. According to our polls-only model, Clinton has a lead of at least 9 percentage points in states collectively worth 273 electoral votes, including New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin. Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina are closer, by contrast.

This leads to a situation where no one state is overwhelmingly more important than any other. But still, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio hold the top spots according to our tipping-point index. A loss in Florida or Ohio would make Trump’s situation almost impossible. Clinton has a few winning maps without Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, but they’d require her to win at least one state that Barack Obama lost in 2012, most likely North Carolina.

Does one candidate appear to have an overall edge in the Electoral College, relative to his or her position in the popular vote?

This is an academic question until and unless the race tightens substantially. And for the time being, an Electoral College landslide against Trump is at least as likely a prospect as the election coming down to the wire. But if the race does close, Trump is more likely to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote than the other way around, according to our models. Still, this is a relatively narrow advantage and it has been diminishing as Clinton’s polling strengthens in states such as Pennsylvania.

How do the “fundamentals” look?

In the absence of polls, we might look toward factors such as economic conditions to predict the election. They imply that the race ought to be competitive. A stronger economy generally helps the incumbent party’s candidate — in this case, Clinton. But the economic data has been mixed, with relatively strong job growth, a healthy stock market and low inflation on the one hand, but tepid income and GDP growth on the other hand. Still, you should be wary of economic determinism. “Fundamentals”-based models that don’t look at polls have a fairly bad track record, even in years that aren’t as crazy as this one.

How do FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts compare against prediction markets?

Betting markets put Trump’s chances at around 20 percent, which is similar to our polls-plus forecast but more optimistic for Trump than polls-only. I’ll take a pass for now on the question of whether these markets are too optimistic or too pessimistic about Trump’s chances.

What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?

At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.

What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

I might not be sleeping at all. The tactics that helped me to win the primary don’t seem to be working in the general election. My position in the polls is deteriorating from middling to dire. Most acutely, I’d worry about getting cut off by the Republican National Committee or thrown under the bus by down-ballot Republican candidates who are rightly concerned about their own survival. If those things happen, I might not have the resources to win the election even if the debates and the news cycle turn in my favor in September and October.

 

 

If there happened some big terrorist attacks in USA before election it could maybe turn the tide I guess. 

 

I'd almost (sadly) bet money something like that will happen if there is any indication Clinton is a sure victor early before November...

 

I'd think terrorist attacks would be more likely if it looked like Trump was going to win, just because of his over the top shit. The establishment isn't on his side because at this point it looks like he's more of an unwitting asshole than a plant to get Hillary into office. 

lol @ sess-hu !?? sess-hu !??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s77RI-rq528 

^ That clip, that dude wants but just has nothing. What a fucking baby.

I wonder how long before Trump shuffles his campaign/advising team again, I bet at least once more before the election.

It's always a good sign when you reshuffle the campaign team three months before the election. Many books will be written about the Trump campaign, most to show how not to run a campaign.

https://youtu.be/jBmp7z9BR1w

..

I find the entire "Barack Obama needs to be down in Louisiana" attack ridiculous and annoying

as if 99.5% of everything he oversees is not carried out by other people

as if his presence there is going to change anything

it's so fucking stupid

...also, the governor specifically told him not to come down, because the cops have better things to be doing than providing security.

https://youtu.be/t-jasg-_E5M

great pitch here by trump

tbqh when will dems make this pitch to poor whites imho

"you're living in poverty...your schools are no good...[none of you have jobs]"

  On 8/21/2016 at 4:38 PM, very honest said:

God damn scheming Goblins. It was all a Goblin inside job. They were behind the

(activates sound and lets it loop all day before leaving for work)

https://youtu.be/gRll6k06fos

lol

  On 8/25/2016 at 12:58 AM, Donald Trump said:

Her supporters have very little enthusiasm. The only people enthusiastic about her campaign are Hollywood celebrities, in many cases celebrities who aren't very hot anymore

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-clinton-hollywood-backers-aren-hot-anymore-article-1.2764371

oh my

"what have you got to lose"

what a convincing argument

the age when a crazy old racist orange guy tramples over one of the political parties, and that party still controls the majority of the house and senate

i saw an article on politico the other day titled why hasnt the republican party collapsed?

not a very good article but a good question. it got me thinking about it. it's not even the gerrymandering, that just gives them an extra 15% maybe. its because there's a slow turn around in consensus and it lags behind reality by 30x the speed