Brexit :(

So no deal is still the most likely outcome at this point? It doesn't need parliamentary approval?

No deal is down in law as the natural outcome

 

Prime minister May and Chancellor Hammond are opposed to no deal

 

Might see more resignations in the next few weeks, which would change things a lot

 

There’s a ‘payroll vote’ that’s quite important in keeping people on May’s side, cushy gov jobs for votes

 

Let’s see what happens

No deal isn't necessarily the natural outcome but the most likely one at this point.

 

I don't get why a lot of people think a second referendum would be undemocratic. It would be the more democratic thing to do.

 

The EU is a stinky nutsack. But leaving it is pretty dumb. I don't know how they could have a weak majority of barely 2%+ decide such a far reaching decision. Such fundamental things should only be decided by 2/3 majorities

Edited March 13, 2019 by darreichungsform

There's no appetite in parliament for no deal and I think it's extremely unlikely. We're looking at an extension then 2nd ref.

  On 3/13/2019 at 9:56 PM, BCM said:

There's no appetite in parliament for no deal and I think it's extremely unlikely. We're looking at an extension then 2nd ref.

That might be a good thing in the short run, we'll end up with new political parties taking power.

Labour and Tory are decrepit. Going against Brexit will kill them off for good.

Sarah Newton becomes 15th member of the govt to resign over Brexit - BBC

Voting against the deal and the no-deal.. so is this show written by the Monty Python gang or the Black Adder scriptwriters? British humour, always so weird.

  On 3/13/2019 at 9:56 PM, BCM said:

There's no appetite in parliament for no deal and I think it's extremely unlikely. We're looking at an extension then 2nd ref.

Why bother with a second ref? It's a waste of time. It's Remain. Unless the other EU countries get to do a referendum on whether they want to have the UK back. Perhaps the EU could enforce a hard brexit. Welcome to democracy ;p

But as we all know They Need Us More Than We Need Them

  On 3/14/2019 at 7:49 AM, goDel said:

 

  On 3/13/2019 at 9:56 PM, BCM said:

There's no appetite in parliament for no deal and I think it's extremely unlikely. We're looking at an extension then 2nd ref.

Why bother with a second ref? It's a waste of time. It's Remain. Unless the other EU countries get to do a referendum on whether they want to have the UK back. Perhaps the EU could enforce a hard brexit. Welcome to democracy ;p

I do believe a protracted debate followed by eventually remaining is now very likely, but no government is going to "force" remain on "the people" of entirely its own volition. Funny they seemed more happy to force leave on everybody, but luckily it seems common sense does still somewhat exist in parliament, and leaving with no deal has of course now been ruled out.

 

I have heard that there is now a feeling in the Tory party though that they should have got behind May's deal and may well vote for it en masse at the next meaningful vote next week. I don't think it will be enough though, the Tories don't hold a majority so if most of Labour, the DUP, SNP etc vote against it, it will fail again and I think that really then will be it. We'll need to request an extension, but to get the EU to agree to that, any extension must have a purpose - to either hold a second ref, or maybe come back to the table with an alternative plan (softer Brexit, Norway model probably). They're not going to agree to an extension without a clear path to something tangible. If they won't grant us an extension, most likely we'll have to rescind Article 50 and call the whole thing off at the last minute. Lol?

Looks like the EU are theoretically fine with a "long extension" of Article 50:

 

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/Zfvoy

Edited March 14, 2019 by BCM

  On 3/14/2019 at 10:05 AM, BCM said:

Looks like the EU are theoretically fine with a "long extension" of Article 50:

 

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/Zfvoy

what good is a long extension if they are unwilling to negotiate further?

  On 3/14/2019 at 12:05 PM, fletcher said:

 

  On 3/14/2019 at 10:05 AM, BCM said:

Looks like the EU are theoretically fine with a "long extension" of Article 50:

 

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/Zfvoy

what good is a long extension if they are unwilling to negotiate further?

 

 

For sure. Tusk is fine with it, but it needs unanimous approval from the council. Already there have been many voices stating they want UK gone by the EU elections at the end of May so we can resume normal business.

 

If the EU don't agree to an extension it will leave three options, vote for May's deal, revoke article 50, or do nothing (i.e. no deal brexit). That might actually be the best chance for a new referendum, because there doesn't seem to be enough support in parliament to actively vote for one, but if another vote on May's deal fails it might force enough of them to vote for revoking article 50 (followed by who knows what, general election? citizens assembly? 2nd referendum?). If article 50 does get revoked there will surely be another referendum, they can't just forget the first one happened, but who knows how it would actually all shake out (I think a citizens assembly - to determine the referendum question - followed by a proper legally binding referendum would be the best idea, with a general election after it finally gets put to bed).

The people calling for a general erection clearly havn't been looking at how Corbyn and his comrades have been handling their shadow duties. Pretty sure Milliband would have handled this better.

 

I need some new voices / party that I can get behind.

  On 3/14/2019 at 12:05 PM, fletcher said:

 

  On 3/14/2019 at 10:05 AM, BCM said:

Looks like the EU are theoretically fine with a "long extension" of Article 50:

 

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/Zfvoy

what good is a long extension if they are unwilling to negotiate further?

Well it would be to either:

 

Give time to May to gather support for her deal.

Give the UK time to go back to the people and vote again.

Give time to the government to come up with an alternative plan (e.g. softer Brexit).

Give UK time to hold a General Election and put a government in place that will either stop Brexit entirely, or come up with a plan that would gather enough support in parliament to pass.

 

We're going to need an extension now anyway no matter what happens. Even if May's deal was voted through we'd need one.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=dCGVwVGwzxA

"Following the votes, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn reiterated his support for a further referendum after earlier ordering his MPs not to vote for one."

 

This is why i hate our current crop of politicians. Why can't they just do as they say. Assholes.

Corbyn will lose 4 million votes if he supports a 2nd ref

Labour members are remainers, they voted at conference for a 2nd ref

It will be interesting to see how Corbyn handles things

Where did you get 4 million? ...and he won't lose votes by going against the 2nd referendum? Labour's base is the large metropolitan centres, which overwhelmingly voted remain. There are far more remain Labour supporters than there are brexiteers, even if there might have been enough traditional Labour working class support in northern towns to help swing the vote in leave's favor. 

Brown and milliband had about 8-9 million votes each

Corbyn 12 million

 

Opinion polls are bullshit, always check the vote count

Brown 8,609,527

Miliband 9,347,273

Corbyn 12,878,460

Edited March 14, 2019 by worms

Corbyn has to juggle the members views (the remain minority) with the voters views (the leave majority). He keeps calling for a general election because there’s a good chance of him winning. Tory voters hate May, she got in via media stitch up, but they believed she would offer a real Brexit despite being a remainer. Emperor May has no clothes.

You haven't explained where you got the 4 million from, those differences could have a dozen different causes. The majority of labour voters are not pro-brexit.

 

 

also, lol at the idea Corbyn has a good chance of winning a GE now.

Well 13 million minus 9 million is 4 million.