2020 US Election

please don't roll a 1 america

don't forget whatever shenanigans come after election day in the courts. trump team is ready to call the election over on election night and push the decision into the courts in an attempt for ballots not counted yet to be disallowed. This would be contrary to every election which usually isn't certified until after election day. Ballots are always counted into the days following the election. 

my prediction is Biden wins on election night 51% to 49%. donnie screams bloody murder, then magically some of those last minute mail-in ballots appear. trump ends up winning 51% to 49%. everyone sues everyone, mass protests erupt, and vlad's like:

I have a feeling the US is going to fuck this up again.

  On 10/29/2020 at 10:16 PM, Silent Member said:

I have a feeling the US is going to fuck this up again.

I have a nagging suspicion you are correct lol.

why cant we juts have like a dictatorship of the proletariat or something really sick of these weird dudes doing random shit, are yachts that fun really if youre a bad person? i dont get it

  On 10/29/2020 at 9:44 PM, custom knob said:

please don't roll a 1 america

Critical fail.

one big difference between 2016 and now is turnout, and the fact that more than half the likely electorate has already voted. in Texas around 95% of the total vote count from 2016 has already occurred (!), but many other swing states show similar numbers. democrats seem to be making up the majority of these early voters too, so Trump needs to ensure they match the turnout for republican voters on election day, they might have already lost too much ground though, and even stopping counts after the 3rd may not be enough to save him. in 2016 supressed turnout for the democrats meant the polling was about 4-6 pts off in many states, and Clinton lost states what should have been easy wins, that seems unlikely this time given the number of votes already cast, and Biden only needs to win 1 of the 6 main battleground states, Trump needs them all. another thing is that even if the polling is off by the same amount it was in 2016, Biden would still win comfortably, so it would take an even bigger fuckup there this time round, the pollsters say they've updated their methodology to account for their past mistakes, so hopefully they're right and Biden wins in a landslide.

  On 10/29/2020 at 10:18 PM, cyanobacteria said:

why cant we juts have like a dictatorship of the proletariat or something really sick of these weird dudes doing random shit, are yachts that fun really if youre a bad person? i dont get it

if trump wins again, then I'm totally on board with your radical anti-capitalist leftist anarchist socialist agenda

I'm sure there are some 'shops already lined up using this.

At any rate, I think the numbers are in the favor of the Democrats, although I'm not sure if the poll simulations accounted for heavy voter suppression.

one possible problem is the order in which votes are counted, e.g. certain districts are saying all mail in ballots will be counted after the 3rd, in person votes on election day getting precedence (not sure if in person early voting would be counted with mail-in ballots), so that might skew things to Trump in a big way early on, allowing law suits and the supreme court to steal the election. each state and even district has it's own rules for the order in which they count the ballots though, so it's hard to quantify how big an effect this will have overall.

  On 10/29/2020 at 9:51 PM, ignatius said:

don't forget whatever shenanigans come after election day in the courts. trump team is ready to call the election over on election night and push the decision into the courts in an attempt for ballots not counted yet to be disallowed. This would be contrary to every election which usually isn't certified until after election day. Ballots are always counted into the days following the election. 

 

you don't have to wait until after

I’m betting it will take around a week to count all ballots, both in-person, and mail-in / absentee / overseas / military / provisional, etc.  Trump will scream it’s rigged, but he did that last time up until the moment he didn’t expect to win.  Someone will shoot their guns off, police will confront someone somewhere, I’ll be too fucked up to care.

then, the court cases will begin.

trump's going down.

  On 10/30/2020 at 1:11 AM, very honest said:

you don't have to wait until after

Expand  

not to mention wrecking the post office. 

edit: 538 is tracking voting and voting problems. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-biden-votes/

A Legal Battle Over Absentee Ballots Brewing In Minnesota

  On 10/29/2020 at 9:51 PM, ignatius said:

don't forget whatever shenanigans come after election day in the courts. trump team is ready to call the election over on election night and push the decision into the courts in an attempt for ballots not counted yet to be disallowed. This would be contrary to every election which usually isn't certified until after election day. Ballots are always counted into the days following the election. 

 

yeah if this isn't a blowout and a few states come close it's 2000 Recount but like Fury Road level absurdity and nastiness

  On 10/29/2020 at 9:51 PM, ignatius said:

don't forget whatever shenanigans come after election day in the courts. trump team is ready to call the election over on election night and push the decision into the courts in an attempt for ballots not counted yet to be disallowed. This would be contrary to every election which usually isn't certified until after election day. Ballots are always counted into the days following the election. 

 

If somehow Trump "wins" because of the Supreme Court and because of their new addition - well I don't want to think about it right now.

It's almost time guys. A friendly reminder. 

texas: go go go go go go

the supreme court looks wired to minister to trump. there's the dark money judicial appointment scheme, detailed by sheldon whitehouse, the connections between many of the justices and the 2000 recount, and kavanaugh's recent rulings being plainly fishy.

plus, of course, it's now a 6/3 conservative majority, thanks to the naked deception of mcconnell and graham 

more nightmare food

we need a blowout. we need to turn out every fucker in florida, pa, ohio, mi, wi, definitely texas, nc, az, georgia

  On 10/30/2020 at 5:18 PM, very honest said:

we need a blowout. we need to turn out every fucker in florida, pa, ohio, mi, wi, and definitely texas

WTF does it say about our current state that we even need to do this.

  On 10/30/2020 at 5:48 PM, randomsummer said:

  On 10/30/2020 at 5:18 PM, very honest said:

we need a blowout. we need to turn out every fucker in florida, pa, ohio, mi, wi, and definitely texas

WTF does it say about our current state that we even need to do this.

yep

good post with links to swing state texting/calling volunteer opportunities: https://medium.com/@leannewattphd/taking-get-out-the-vote-strategies-to-the-next-level-1f8225074627

  On 10/30/2020 at 2:50 AM, ignatius said:

not to mention wrecking the post office. 

edit: 538 is tracking voting and voting problems. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-biden-votes/

yeah. first class mail delivery in PA has been running so late that people were sounding the alarm to voters at the beginning of this week that it was too late to mail the ballot, but that it is still possible to vote. there were like a million mail-in ballots still not yet returned in PA, alone. propublica did a good page with state-by-state information about what to do if you have a mail-in ballot but did not send it out in time.

Fucked up