2020 US Election

  On 2/26/2020 at 10:59 AM, Candiru said:

Biden is the only one that has this magic formula of former Trump voters feeling ok enough to vote Dem.

But it's not about swinging Trump voters, it's more about achieving a high voter turnout. Biden can't really achieve that.

  On 2/26/2020 at 11:36 AM, darreichungsform said:

But it's not about swinging Trump voters, it's more about achieving a high voter turnout. Biden can't really achieve that.

Bernie will cause higher turnout in blue states that are safely Dem. In many other places, he could have more of a chilling effect, where a ton of those aforementioned voters stay home or just say fuck it and vote for Trump again. With Bernie winning the nomination, we even run the risk of losing the progress we made in the midterms and ending up exactly where we were in January, 2017. 

Or maybe the populist pied-piper candidate(Trump wants to run against Bernie, Hillary wanted to run against Trump) will come from the left this time for a surprise shabang yowza win. I wouldn’t be against it. If he has a hidden secret weapon nationwide polls aren’t picking up yet, it would be a shit ton of young voters. We just need an actual shit ton of them, everywhere, in every state. No guarantees. 

  On 2/26/2020 at 12:02 PM, Candiru said:

Bernie will cause higher turnout in blue states that are safely Dem. In many other places, he could have more of a chilling effect, where a ton of those aforementioned voters stay home or just say fuck it and vote for Trump again. With Bernie winning the nomination, we even run the risk of losing the progress we made in the midterms and ending up exactly where we were in January, 2017. 

Or maybe the populist pied-piper candidate(Trump wants to run against him, Hillary wanted to run against Trump) will come from the left this time for a surprise shabang yowza win. I wouldn’t be against it. If he has a hidden secret weapon nationwide polls aren’t picking up yet, it would be a shit ton of young voters. We just need an actual shit ton of them, everywhere, in every state. No guarantees. 

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Yes, it's a gamble but the potential reward is high, so is the risk. I think Sanders has tremendous populist competence, I believe he can beat Trump. Did you see his appearance in the town hall debate on FOX News a couple of months ago? Very selected audience and questions and unfair framing, he still managed to perform well and appeal to FOX News watchers. I can't see Biden do that.

In 2016 the DNC picked the worst Dem candidate possible and still won the popular vote. Of course, Trump this time around has the advantage that he is campaigning from a position of being in office, historically that has proven to provide some advantage. But at the same time he had lots of time to prove what a piece of shit he is and how little he did what he said he would do. Wall etc.

The probability of a Dem winning is high this time, so why not pick the one that has the best policies instead of strategically choosing a moderate without even exactly knowing if it really heightens the chances to win?

Couple of comments about Sanders from my side: I don't believe in the "communist Sanders" narrative. He's more moderate than the media would have you believe. To me the real question is about the so-called "pivot". Because when Sanders wins the Dem ticket, I'm fairly sure he'll change his tune in a way such that he'll appeal to more moderate and conservative voters. Especially within the Dem party itself. From the moment he's on the ticket, he will also carry the load of keeping all the house seats blue. In order to do that, he has to support the broad platform that got the Dems to win all those seats in 2018.

So my guess is, Sanders will shift gears and go for a broader platform once he's in the race against Trump. It wouldn't surprise me if the hardcore Bernie supporters will be as disappointed as the Obama supporters once were. 

The real test for Sanders is whether he's able to build a real political platform with broad support. Which goes beyond the populist echo-chamber.

In this aspect I expect more from Sanders than I do from Trump. Sanders has more (political) integrity. IMO

Also, Sanders on the Dem ticket will be a difficult one, but it won't be the end of the world either.

  On 2/26/2020 at 12:26 PM, goDel said:

Couple of comments about Sanders from my side: I don't believe in the "communist Sanders" narrative. He's more moderate than the media would have you believe. To me the real question is about the so-called "pivot". Because when Sanders wins the Dem ticket, I'm fairly sure he'll change his tune in a way such that he'll appeal to more moderate and conservative voters. Especially within the Dem party itself. From the moment he's on the ticket, he will also carry the load of keeping all the house seats blue. In order to do that, he has to support the broad platform that got the Dems to win all those seats in 2018.

So my guess is, Sanders will shift gears and go for a broader platform once he's in the race against Trump. It wouldn't surprise me if the hardcore Bernie supporters will be as disappointed as the Obama supporters once were. 

The real test for Sanders is whether he's able to build a real political platform with broad support. Which goes beyond the populist echo-chamber.

In this aspect I expect more from Sanders than I do from Trump. Sanders has more (political) integrity. IMO

Also, Sanders on the Dem ticket will be a difficult one, but it won't be the end of the world either.

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Yeah, I certainly hope he can win the shit out of this, if he gets there. It’s that pesky electoral college that makes me nervous. I’m not sure it’ll work in his favor. 

  On 2/26/2020 at 12:22 PM, bendish said:

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Hilary was projected to beat Trump by a few percent in 2016 too. which she did, of course, but:

  On 2/26/2020 at 12:32 PM, Candiru said:

It’s that pesky electoral college that makes me nervous. I’m not sure it’ll work in his favor. 

and if Sanders gets the ticket it's going to rile the Republican/elite side of the country like you wouldn't imagine is possible, i'm quite certain. why do you think Bloomberg appeared out of nowhere?

Love the way Warren and Bloomberg were both once Republicans...Bloomberg still funded Reps even as recent as 2016 elections. 

biden doing well (either winning or second) in SC is ok with me. we need warren to drop out.

  On 2/26/2020 at 3:57 PM, dr lopez said:

biden doing well (either winning or second) in SC is ok with me. we need warren to drop out.

Yeah he has no reason to drop until after Super Tuesday. I don't think he's going to win SC but he'll come in a strong 2nd. Warren still has the college educated and/or West Wing liberals and they seem to be betting big on Super Tuesday. Hell she's still my #2 choice even after I've become really burned out by her watering down her message. If she drops it will firm up Sanders lead. Anecdotally I don't know one Warren supporter who will gravitate toward anyone beyond Sanders, perhaps a few are toying with Buttegieg or Kloubacher but they are skeptical of their appeal. All of them def will vote for Sanders in the general.  

  On 2/26/2020 at 7:40 AM, ignatius said:

biden is leading in the polls. who knows though. 

What polls?  RCP average has Sanders leading by almost 12 points. Biden fell off a cliff two weeks ago and hasn't recovered. Or do you mean just South Carolina?  That's the one place I can see where Biden still has a lead.

EDIT: Looks like Bendish beat me to it.

  On 2/26/2020 at 2:58 PM, bendish said:

Love the way Warren and Bloomberg were both once Republicans...Bloomberg still funded Reps even as recent as 2016 elections. 

Warren gets a lot of shit for that but it's completely different than Bloomberg. Warren was one of those old school fiscal conservative, social liberal Rockefeller Republican who were literally on the same page as centrist Dems like Biden. She firmly switched in 1995 and that is 24 years ago. My bigger hang up is she's waffled on her anti-Wall Street and her policy rhetoric doesn't have the same teeth that they did a few years ago. She should have run in 2016 as many pleaded her too, including Bernie.

Bloomberg on the other hand is literally Trump with liberal optics and signalling. For every reasonable, conflicted conservative who will be swayed from Trump in a hypothetical match-up there are going to be multiple independents turned off by the fact that Bloombergs's an elitist who wants to tax Big Gulps. Even though it's 100% horseshit Trump maintains a base because he projects the overt impression of unpretentious, kitsch, and unsophisticated wealth. His kids literally parade themselves around as nightmare-ish right-wing stereotypes: faux macho men who like to hunt, punch down, and play with big trucks and boats. Similar to how Obama was this vague canvas for people to project their own identity onto and relate with Trump is the same but in ways that are delusional and absurd to those outside of his base. We see a cartoon-ish corrupt trust fund man-child mogul, his followers see themselves had they won the lottery or succeeded on shark tank. I hate to admit this but he's more likeable than Bloomberg on the purely surface level, even if both are despicable and Trump more of an overt fascist pig. This surreal clip reminded me of that, everyone in it is godawful, but of them all Trump seems the more cartoonish acceptable godawful. That's how he got in office in the first place.

  On 2/26/2020 at 4:26 PM, joshuatxuk said:

Warren gets a lot of shit for that but it's completely different than Bloomberg. Warren was one of those old school fiscal conservative, social liberal Rockefeller Republican who were literally on the same page as centrist Dems like Biden. She firmly switched in 1995 and that is 24 years ago. My bigger hang up is she's waffled on her anti-Wall Street and her policy rhetoric doesn't have the same teeth that they did a few years ago. She should have run in 2016 as many pleaded her too, including Bernie.

Bloomberg on the other hand is literally Trump with liberal optics and signalling. For every reasonable, conflicted conservative who will be swayed from Trump in a hypothetical match-up there are going to be multiple independents turned off by the fact that Bloombergs's an elitist who wants to tax Big Gulps. Even though it's 100% horseshit Trump maintains a base because he projects the overt impression of unpretentious, kitsch, and unsophisticated wealth. His kids literally parade themselves around as nightmare-ish right-wing stereotypes: faux macho men who like to hunt, punch down, and play with big trucks and boats. Similar to how Obama was this vague canvas for people to project their own identity onto and relate with Trump is the same but in ways that are delusional and absurd to those outside of his base. We see a cartoon-ish corrupt trust fund man-child mogul, his followers see themselves had they won the lottery or succeeded on shark tank. I hate to admit this but he's more likeable than Bloomberg on the purely surface level, even if both are despicable and Trump more of an overt fascist pig. This surreal clip reminded me of that, everyone in it is godawful, but of them all Trump seems the more cartoonish acceptable godawful. That's how he got in office in the first place.

 

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Indeed not the same. Imagine Trump vs. Bloomberg. 

forecasts for SC and super tuesday are bernie town, meaning that's the game for the nomination*. though my choice is warren i am happy with bernie. i hope he doesn't have a medical event this year. medical people i talk to always give a dreadful look regarding an 80 year old who just had a heart attack running for president. and they're probably not even thinking about the ridiculous intensity of this particular election.

*likely he won't get majority of delegates though, meaning a massive shitshow at the convention. luckily we can all trust the media to keep people well informed as the democrats struggle with a heavily nuanced national conversation. i bet he gets the nomination, though there are still some wild cards

  On 2/26/2020 at 2:58 PM, bendish said:

Love the way Warren and Bloomberg were both once Republicans...Bloomberg still funded Reps even as recent as 2016 elections. 

he also bought.... i mean funded/brought in the current dems in congress right now 

fixt

  On 2/26/2020 at 4:08 PM, TubularCorporation said:

What polls?  RCP average has Sanders leading by almost 12 points. Biden fell off a cliff two weeks ago and hasn't recovered. Or do you mean just South Carolina?  That's the one place I can see where Biden still has a lead.

 

 

EDIT: Looks like Bendish beat me to it.

 

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just talking about south carolina. not nationally. SC and then super tuesday will hopefully shake some of these fuckers out of the race. those 2 billionaires will probably hang around forever though. 

what if bernie got coronavirus

  On 2/26/2020 at 8:27 AM, darreichungsform said:

The problem with these amounts of wealth is that it undermines democracy. It's non-elected power, often obtained through Machiavellian means. At a certain point money doesn't lead to much increase of life standard but is mere power. But we want to distribute power in different, democratic ways. I think nobody wants to abolish richness, only the kind of richness that makes you a political (f)actor.

This is a case for getting money out of politics. Businesses are not people and are created solely for maximizing profit and in a sense are kinda "sociopathic" and should not be able to sway any political climate.

Btw I think like 85-90% of people want to make it illegal to buy elections, and yet it rarely even comes up among the bought out politicians.

  On 2/26/2020 at 8:31 PM, dr lopez said:

what if bernie got coronavirus

He'll go into quarantine, get treated and leave as soon as he's technically cleared by a doctor.

"Senator, good news, you are now virus free."

"Great, am I allowed to go now?"

"Well yes, I can discharge you now...but I strongly suggest..."

"Can I leave or what?"

"Yes, I can't stop you from campaigning I just-"

"Yeah, good. OK"

  On 2/26/2020 at 8:31 PM, dr lopez said:

what if bernie got coronavirus

thoughts & prayers

  On 2/26/2020 at 8:31 PM, dr lopez said:

what if bernie got coronavirus

he could be quarantined in the whitehouse. 

has Colbert always been this lame since he left the Colbert Report? 

colbert is good. that 1 minute clip of mostly chris christie is, obviously, not representative