'Global Warming's Terrifying New Math'

  On 1/12/2024 at 9:35 PM, auxien said:

this really is a big thing. declines in insects and therefore birds and other types of animals has all kinds of knock-on effects. car traffic/road surface space/cutting off of habitats/etc. all is seemingly small at first but all combined has resulted in a huge loss of diversity and populations and so forth. many of these creatures (and plants etc. are therefore effected too) can rebound quickly if the offending change is reversed, but rarely are we reversing anything. i’ve got neighbors who keep huge floodlights on all night every night all times of the year, but of course urban areas/etc. have even bigger problems there…. calling it pollution truly is a good use of the word. 

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i think it's worse now. exponential rate of decline. biomass is generally pretty fucked up these days.  

75% decline in insect biomass according to this guy.

  On 1/13/2024 at 2:30 AM, ignatius said:

i think it's worse now. exponential rate of decline. biomass is generally pretty fucked up these days.  

75% decline in insect biomass according to this guy.

 

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yeah that ~75% drop study came out a year or more back, i remember first hearing about it. it tracks tho i think, or something near it at least...but really, i remember being v young and my folks taking me fishing and camping and stuff, there were tons of bugs all the time. not just mosquitoes or whatever, just lots of bugs of all types. hell even on the roads, cars were splattered all the time in the 80s and the 90s, last few decades it's been much less, and that's not just a bettering aerodynamics thing from car styles. that's just in my ~40 years, with my shit memory, i've seen it (still live in basically the same areas)

Human ‘behavioural crisis’ at root of climate breakdown, say scientists (guardian)

World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot 

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:38 PM, prdctvsm said:

Human ‘behavioural crisis’ at root of climate breakdown, say scientists (guardian)

World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot 

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for real. 

“We need to become mindful of the way we’re being manipulated,” says Merz, who is co-founder of the Merz Institute, an organisation that researches the systemic causes of the climate crisis and how to tackle them.

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:47 PM, ignatius said:

We need to become mindful of the way we’re being manipulated

that paper starts off w an edward bernays quote :

‘The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of’.

– Edward Bernays, Propaganda, 1928

 

speaking of math.. it takes more energy to store carbon in carbon capture systems than was used in creating the carbon to be stored.. and of course is more cost effective efficient etc to replace fossil energy with different sources. 

didn't know that production of hydrogen emits more carbon than the entire aviation industry. hydrogen is used for making fertilizers in the haber bosch process.. among other things.. and making hydrogens requires fossil fuels. the entire chat is interesting but it's cued up to that bit about hydrogen being bigger than emissions in aviation. 

tension over water use used for lithium mining in the western USA. nevada monitoring wells are running dry. in california the water will come from the colorado river which is already stressed, obviously. 

the regulatory frame work for water use in the states is from the 1800s and so is wide open. the congressional people from those states are trying to modernize the law on the federal level but with little support. 

there's dozens of mines applying for permits to come on line in the coming handful of years. 

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:38 PM, prdctvsm said:

Human ‘behavioural crisis’ at root of climate breakdown, say scientists (guardian)

World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot 

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‘A species causing the extinction of 150 species per day doesn’t need more energy to do more of what it does’. – Hart Hagan, Environmental journalist to elon musk

some annoying edits in this but overall interesting data on the amazon drought, lakes w/increased water temps killing dolphins, isolating people, fires, amazon areas becoming more arid and difficult to live in.. amazon periodically losing capacity to be a carbon sink. these things not necessarily expected to happen so soon.. but happening now.. faster than what was expected. tipping points might come faster if trend continues.

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Interesting discussion with a doomer about doomerism. Some good questions after the talk. 
 

very clear explanation of ecological overshoot. 

el nino -> la nina switch coming up = hurricane season kicking off in april possibly.. all because warmer waters.. it'll be "pure luck" if we don't get smashed hard this hurricane season. 

are we doomed? my friend who´s finishing his degree in philosophy tells me we're doom

  On 2/23/2024 at 1:48 AM, logakght said:

are we doomed? my friend who´s finishing his degree in philosophy tells me we're doom

which is his specialty? Schopenauer by chance?

  On 2/23/2024 at 2:09 AM, ignatius said:

which is his specialty? Schopenauer by chance?

 

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Deleuzian. He actually will write a thesis about climate change and geo-philosophy or something like that.

  On 2/23/2024 at 2:15 AM, logakght said:

Deleuzian. He actually will write a thesis about climate change and geo-philosophy or something like that.

interesting. he's probably aware of Nate Hagens' youtube channel. his podcast gets into some territory that is around that neck of the world but often quite rooted in problem solving and the science of things.. lot's of big picture things too though.. and philosophical at times. 

https://www.youtube.com/@thegreatsimplification

  On 2/23/2024 at 2:19 AM, ignatius said:

interesting. he's probably aware of Nate Hagens' youtube channel. his podcast gets into some territory that is around that neck of the world but often quite rooted in problem solving and the science of things.. lot's of big picture things too though.. and philosophical at times. 

https://www.youtube.com/@thegreatsimplification

I never really know what to think when it comes to systems science approaches. Limits to Growth was the first big one, and it was a lot cleverer than most people make it out to be (most of the common criticisms don't actually reflect what they actually did, if you read it - e.g. unlike Ehrlich they do take into account that the resource base could increase considerably). The focus on trends and flows rather than things means it meshes nicely with ecology and dialectical approaches, but the downside that comes with that is that its complexity and methodology offers a great excuse to not bother to codify/quantify it properly, and you can easily wish away the need to seriously think about social/political/economic consequences because you can just say that everything will be magically fixed in the inevitable Hegelian quantum leap, god-of-the-gaps-style - thereby letting you indulge in terminally vague, arm-waving lunacy. Plus, the moment you get anywhere near degrowth or depopulation it's very easily co-opted by far-right bash-the-poor and/or racist shit

  On 2/23/2024 at 4:14 AM, Walter Ostanek said:

Plus, the moment you get anywhere near degrowth or depopulation it's very easily co-opted by far-right bash-the-poor and/or racist shit

sure. anything can be used. narratives compete.

i mention Hagens' podcast because there's a wide range of guests with lot's of different experiences in different fields.  as for degrowth and depopulation.. those things may happen as a result of what could and likely will happen when/if the climate problem arrives in totality. We're already overshooting earth's boundaries.. the guy who led the party on figuring out the essential systems that need to be maintained for survival of humanity said we're overshooting 6 of 9 boundaries already.  degrowth as a way to save what exists wouldn't be equitable. our system isn't built on equity and the people w/all the things won't want to give up anything. see USA as example. we consume more than anyone and will keep that up, holing on w/our fingernails until we use up all the shitty shale oil in our borders...  

the constant narrative i hear hagens talking is we've been having a cheap energy party because of fossil fuels and that shit is coming to an end and it's not just climate that's the problem but toxic everything, plastics, biomass, extinction etc All of that is of course echoed by a wide range of people in a wide range of places.  he has his particular angle or ax to grind which to me seems fair and reasonable and helpful. 

depopulation etc may happen eventually with declining fertility and sperm counts and all that stuff. for better or worse. degrowth may be forced on the world but it may be worse than that unless some break throughs happen real soon or everyone goes nuclear for power in a hurry.

i don't know shit though. speculation is all most people have though people who know a lot about different fields have more accurate speculation than mine of course. some tend towards doomer scenarios and others towards probably overly optimistic ones. 

so, idk. shit is gonna happen.. what will that shit be? [throws hands in air] i can only guess. hopefully people prepare and plan and get to know their neighbors. 

  On 2/16/2024 at 5:41 PM, ignatius said:

very clear explanation of ecological overshoot. 

 

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so, i was unaware that his chapters/series called "How to enjoy the end of the world" were parts of his talk linked below. 

"all of this was happening even without climate change" - sheesh. 

"dark humor is like food. not everybody gets it."

his green party pitch towards the end is tiresome. once he gets into the wealth equality section he starts to go off the rails some. not that he's wrong about that but he starts rolling in some other shit that is kinda lazy conspiratorial thinking to some degree or just that same old narrative that leads him to his green party pitch which all just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 

the Q/A part after the talk  has some interesting bits though. 

edit: i think i posted this one in here already but adding it here because i listened to it again and so should you.. or not. whatever. 

and this guy.. quite a story he lays out. he states the problems clearly and identifies "climate change" as only another symptom of overshoot. 

the guest sounds pretty frustrated and pissed off.. goes hard on calling out the climate scientists on the "circuit" etc.