'Global Warming's Terrifying New Math'

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“It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said. “It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison’s sake, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot

  On 3/18/2024 at 8:46 AM, iococoi said:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot

 

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talked to one of my nephews a minute ago. he's in south florida.. said it's already 94 degrees in the afternoons there. march is usually kinda decent there. it's summer heat already. 

in that video i posted one of the things they talk about is how we're breaking emissions records every year. 

edit: starting to think a lot of things are over already and we just don’t know it yet because of the lag in the system of the world. the heat build up in the system… we’re already up against a wall. 

interesting breakdown of some winter extremes & extreme volatility in America 

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Here's the recording of Tuesday's 'AI & the Climate Crisis' panel, with four absolutely storming presentations from our speakers

https://goldsmiths.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=609824f6-5e69-4241-9bd4-b13a00d3d05b

  On 3/21/2024 at 4:13 PM, iococoi said:

https://goldsmiths.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=609824f6-5e69-4241-9bd4-b13a00d3d05b

 

this platform kinda sucks. but maybe we're all just used to youtube. 

  On 3/18/2024 at 8:46 AM, iococoi said:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot

 

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good article. here the author makes an important point:

that's a diplomatic way of saying that we're throwing the global systems out of whack. this is the best way to understand the situation. calling it "warming" doesn't capture it. it's destabilization. 

THE IMPORTANT THING TO FOR EVERYONE TO UNDERSTAND is that there is no solving climate change without climate legislation. climate change is an extremely challenging problem and the only way we can solve it this century is with strong and stable national climate legislation. the most important thing anyone can do is to vote based on climate, and to pay attention and raise awareness to help others understand that this is the needed step. the longer we wait to get this done, the worse it will be. 

  On 3/21/2024 at 6:05 PM, may be rude said:

THE IMPORTANT THING TO FOR EVERYONE TO UNDERSTAND is that there is no solving climate change without climate legislation. climate change is an extremely challenging problem and the only way we can solve it this century is with strong and stable national climate legislation. the most important thing anyone can do is to vote based on climate, and to pay attention and raise awareness to help others understand that this is the needed step. the longer we wait to get this done, the worse it will be. 

 

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i don't see us voting our way out of this. to survive it's going to require a systems change. not saying to not vote.. but don't hang all the hopes on it. 

we're breaking emissions records EVERY YEAR for the last like 5 years or something. effectively doing absolutely nothing to fight the problem.

the heat that's built into the system already hasn't shown itself yet. if we stopped emitting right now and everyone one in the world sat on their couches and did nothing we'd still hit 2 degrees warming which now looks like it will be genuinely catastrophic for humanity. 

the communication of the problem has been a huge failure. it should be every day everywhere. a lot of americans don't know what's going on at all. they think climate change is the ozone hole and by not buying paper towels they're doing enough. 

worth reminding that this isn't just a warming problem but overshooting earth's boundaries. even w/o global warming and the climate predicament we'd be up against the wall due to resource limitations and wrecking the ecology of the entire planet. we're basically going full Harkonnen and making a shit planet. 

population + lifestyle is the problem. until huge changes are made to one or both, nothing will change, and past sins will continue to compound as either/both gets worse

  On 3/21/2024 at 6:25 PM, ignatius said:

i don't see us voting our way out of this. to survive it's going to require a systems change. not saying to not vote.. but don't hang all the hopes on it. 

it will be interesting to see how things play out. we're already in the era of climate change-related disasters taking a toll in money and lives, so it's not like there's any chance of avoiding it. the question is how bad do we fuck up the planet. i would not be shocked if the next hundred years consisted of stymied partial efforts that don't effectively mitigate the damage and result in a state of civilization really struggling to keep stable. it's absolutely worth pushing for electing sanity to power and it is absolutely possible.

  On 3/21/2024 at 6:25 PM, ignatius said:

we're breaking emissions records EVERY YEAR for the last like 5 years or something. effectively doing absolutely nothing to fight the problem.

i'm not sure what statistic you're referring to but usa decreased its grennhouse emissions in 2023.  

  On 3/21/2024 at 6:25 PM, ignatius said:

the heat that's built into the system already hasn't shown itself yet. if we stopped emitting right now and everyone one in the world sat on their couches and did nothing we'd still hit 2 degrees warming which now looks like it will be genuinely catastrophic for humanity. 

right, the damage is on a delay of decades. i think by 2050 it will be more obvious what's happening. we are in a special point, between now and then, where we could be doing a lot more but we are waiting too long because people are still waking up and bullshit is being allowed to fly.

  On 3/21/2024 at 6:25 PM, ignatius said:

worth reminding that this isn't just a warming problem but overshooting earth's boundaries. even w/o global warming and the climate predicament we'd be up against the wall due to resource limitations and wrecking the ecology of the entire planet. we're basically going full Harkonnen and making a shit planet. 

i'd like to think that, in 1,000 years, society will have evolved to a point where people have an internalized sense of duty to regulate their resource impact. personal restraint is a significant part of the equation, though nobody likes that. 

  On 3/22/2024 at 1:44 AM, may be rude said:

it will be interesting to see how things play out. we're already in the era of climate change-related disasters taking a toll in money and lives, so it's not like there's any chance of avoiding it. the question is how bad do we fuck up the planet. i would not be shocked if the next hundred years consisted of stymied partial efforts that don't effectively mitigate the damage and result in a state of civilization really struggling to keep stable. it's absolutely worth pushing for electing sanity to power and it is absolutely possible.

i'm not sure what statistic you're referring to but usa decreased its grennhouse emissions in 2023.  

right, the damage is on a delay of decades. i think by 2050 it will be more obvious what's happening. we are in a special point, between now and then, where we could be doing a lot more but we will wait too long because people are still waking up and bullshit is being allowed to fly.

i'd like to think that, in 1,000 years, society will have evolved to a point where people have an internalized sense of duty to regulate their resource impact. personal restraint is a significant part of the equation, though nobody likes that. 

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by "we" i meant the world. humans as a species. not just the USA. we're breaking records. 

as for evolving a sense of duty to community and greater good etc.. that was trained out of us by capitalism and individuality messaging/propaganda. other countries are different of course. 

i mean.. here's america.. these are the people we have to club in the head with messaging or legislate this dumb shit out of existence. 

  On 3/22/2024 at 2:00 AM, ignatius said:

we're breaking records

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This is a bit of a long one! So here’s my “Executive Summary” so you can decide whether to commit the time to the rest of it: mainstream climate scientists run the risk of becoming the new climate deniers.

https://www.jonathonporritt.com/mainstream-climate-science-the-new-denialism/

time stamped to around 4 minutes. he talks about his social media channels for the first bit..asking for advice on where to post stuff. whatever. 

then he goes into details about how average humans consume plastic in an amount equivalent to what it takes to make a credit card about every 2 weeks. based on math from a story that appeared in the guardian

then goes into lot's of detail about one of the greenland ice sheets and the "tongue" that is massive and will collapse soon. how it's melting from above/below and how thick it used to be and how thick it is now. 

this guy has no time for bullshit economics

this guy... info-tainment. 

edit: added this one from a couple years ago as he calls out the bullshit so well.. all the bullshit presented by economists.. he rips it all apart. 

in other doom news:

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/04/distilled-disintegration/

  On 4/9/2024 at 10:27 AM, iococoi said:

in other doom news:

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/04/distilled-disintegration/

 

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Modernity has supplied the temporary illusion—initiated by our foray into agriculture—that humans stand alone and apart from the community of life on this planet. Our narratives around evolution, even, have emphasized the survival of the fittest rather than complex interdependencies and mutual cooperation in a co-dependent web of life. We imagine ourselves as the victors in the game. Winning, in this sense, is the quickest path to losing—because it’s not a competition.

good stuff. the author's right, 'modernity' is going to have to end to some extent or another. 'lifestyle change' is how i usually refer to it, but it's the same thing. the 'all new everything every few years' / 'go everywhere & do everything' way of life is unsustainable at scale. this is 100% certain.

just things and stuff.  sooner or later all the bad things are going to line up and the rains won't come to save the day and well.. i don't want to think about a city of 22 million people running out of water. media usually makes these situations sound more shocking/dire than they are.. let's hope that's the case

  On 4/16/2024 at 6:29 AM, ignatius said:

just things and stuff.  sooner or later all the bad things are going to line up and the rains won't come to save the day and well.. i don't want to think about a city of 22 million people running out of water. media usually makes these situations sound more shocking/dire than they are.. let's hope that's the case

 

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I have a friend who just knows and he told me this crisis is real. RIP my illusion on living there...

meanwhile

https://www.texasobserver.org/water-energy-environment-corpus/

full story

2 years old but still... 

  On 4/22/2024 at 7:32 AM, iococoi said:

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does not accurately capture it at all. the difference between 2 and 3 is the difference between all world powers acting perfectly starting now and continually for decades (impossible hypothetical), versus a more realistic best case scenario. the difference between 3 and 4 is the difference between the best case scenario and what could happen if world powers remain oil-influenced for decades through the century. the difference between 4 and 5 is between that and if we're just overall bad at even trying and just resign to push the thing off the cliff, buying bullshit about geo engineering that will of course not reverse anything but rather further the destabilization. the difference between 5 and 6 is much of the same but at that point it doesn't make much difference because somewhere around 4 may be where the strain on societal stability is so bad that it seems like there's a high risk of broader wars that could result in a nuclear armaggeddon. 

funny thing about the "x degree" threshold is it takes... 2 decades of average temperature past that threshold! we already had a full year of average 1.5c hotter. by the time we're officially at 1.5 degrees it will be more than 2 degrees. by the time it's 2 degrees it will be 3 degrees. great. who came up with that? someone fix that.

  On 4/23/2024 at 4:00 AM, may be rude said:

does not accurately capture it at all.

it's a conceptual thing meant to create emotion in people and a sense of fear/urgency. no one is pulling up this hand/table saw art at a climate conference to explain science/geo politics/human predicament. 

that being said.. a number of climate scientists are arguing that 2 degrees would a line up by the shoulder taking off the entire arm. basically saying 2 degrees will be catastrophic for a large number of people and larger number of wildlife

edit:

Shorter videos on specific people/places