LOST is happening in real life

  On 3/17/2014 at 7:10 PM, jules said:

can someone please explain to me what someone would do with a jet that the entire world is looking for?

attack the jews, what else?

  On 3/17/2014 at 7:47 PM, jules said:

what reason is there for anyone to be allowed to disable any sort of transponder or gps device on an airline?

 

 

even if this was terrorists. and they killed everyone on board, and then flew somewhere, landed safely, disposed of 200 bodies and parked the monstrous airliner in a hanger. they are going to then use that plane to attack somewhere without them noticing an unidentified plane flying from nowhere? just seems really silly and impossible to pull off.

 

the thing crashed somewhere, and it is ridiculously difficult to find. i think it is as simple as that.

Hard questions to answer, and I think there's still a chance you're right. I found another pilot analysis that seems to make a lot of sense as to why the transponders went down and why under duress the pilot may have been making emergency maneuvers to a familiar airport.

It seem sound, but there's some problems with the idea that the plane was trying to land. First of all, the plane was pinging radar locations many hours after the transponders went down. And two, the turns taken are known flight paths that autopilot would have not taken anyway. This suggests control over the plane was being maintained.

Maybe it's an incredibly elaborate and expensive ARG!

Also, to support the theory at that the MH370 was shadowing flight SIA68:

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It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace. As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens.

Wouldn’t the SIA68 flight have detected MH370? NO! The Boeing 777 utilizes a TCAS system for traffic avoidance; the system would ordinarily provide alerts and visualization to pilots if another airplane was too close. However that system only operates by receiving the transponder information from other planes and displaying it for the pilot. If MH370 was flying without the transponder, it would have been invisible to SIA68.

In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done. The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777. Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.

ok if the plane shadowed another, then what? it can't just land somewhere and drive away.

  On 3/17/2014 at 9:24 PM, jules said:

ok if the plane shadowed another, then what? it can't just land somewhere and drive away.

Yeah, who knows.. it's just a weird, weird thing for the plane to be pinging radar sites like that. Especially if the plane is having technical problems and needs to land ASAP. That and we're talking multiple hours of flight.

Courtney Love may be on to sth

  On 3/17/2014 at 9:35 PM, phling said:

Courtney Love may be on to sth

 

 

well fuck me

I don't see shit... am I losing my mind or what?

It's dumb anyway.. those coordinates are way off.. the plane flew for hours beyond there.

  On 3/17/2014 at 11:32 PM, Obel said:

I don't see shit... am I losing my mind or what?

Courtney Love

  On 3/18/2014 at 12:05 AM, usagi said:

Courtney Love

If it's pinging radar, it would have continued to do so after it diverged from the singapore flight, no?

  On 3/18/2014 at 2:45 AM, chenGOD said:

If it's pinging radar, it would have continued to do so after it diverged from the singapore flight, no?

Supposedly only at sites that equipped enough to do so. Supposedly most of the air strips in the region can't afford better systems, so rely entirely on the transponders to track airspace surrounding them.

I still have no idea though.. as far as plausible theories go, it sounds alright. I just can't get past the multiple hours it were spotted crossing waters.. why would the plane not stay near land?

remove all the speculation of willing pilots stealing a plane and there are a many more plausible reasons.

I'm betting that everyone on board ate fish for dinner and became violently ill.

What if the plane had a slow decompression that killed the passengers and crew on accident, and the pilots panicked when they realized it happened? How would you react if you were still alive and had 200+ passengers die on your plane?

I probably wouldn't turn off my communication devices

look, Courtney is on the case, ok. it's just a matter of time before it's solved so let's all just relax here.

the transponder and the ACARS mechanical data transmission were switched off around the same time. the ACARS continues pinging after being switched off (it did for several hours in this case). switching off the ACARS system involves climbing through hatches and shit. also, the timing and placement of events would have been convenient for someone who wanted to delay alarms being raised. this reuters article makes it sound like this was carefully planned and it's hypothetically possible this thing made it to a landing somewhere.

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A Uighur group called the Chinese Martyrs' Brigade has "claimed credit" for this incident. So far, they appear to be the only group that has done so.

 

  Quote

Regarding at least one Uighur passenger of interest, the media has mistaken his identity and we no longer know who he is. Dr. Mamatjan Yasin (Yashend Maimaitijiang) was not on flight MH370. In addition, "Malaysian police and Interpol are combing through the personal backgrounds of passengers and crew of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, and have confirmed they are taking a close look at a 35-year-old passenger of Uighur descent... An unnamed source had told the daily that Malaysian police and Interpol are focusing their attention on this man because of the skills he possessed."

 

• There was that odd call to China Airlines on March 4 warning of a pending attack on Beijing Airport.

• The Uighurs have tried hijacking airplanes on at least 2 previous occasions, Tianjin Airlines flight 7554 in 2012, and a China Southern flight from Urumqi to Beijing in 2008

• Some reports now indicate Malaysia officials they believe most likely location for MH370 is on land somewhere near Chinese/Kyrgyz border (Kyrgyzstan, not Kazakhstan). This, of course, would place the plane squarely in the region Uighurs call home.

  Quote

Diego and all who have commented - thank you.

 

I wrote this post before the information regarding the engines continuing to run for approximately six hours and the fact it seems acars was shut down before the transponder.

 

The continued speculation of hijack and/or murder suicide and the latest this morning that there was a flight engineer on board that is being investigated does not do much to sway me in favour of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

 

My post received a lot of comments on Reddit as well if some of you wish to read those. www.reddit.com MH370.Now let me deal with Diego's request for my present view in light of new evidence.

 

We know there was a last voice transmission that from a pilot's point of view (POV) was entirely normal. The good night is customary on a hand -off to a new ATC control. The good night also indicates STRONGLY to me all was OK on the flight deck. Remember there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress - the hijack code or even a transponder code different by one digit from assigned would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike is always an option even three short clicks would raise an alert.

So I conclude at that point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong unknown to the pilots - Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electric or electric fire issue than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots were probably not aware it was not transmitting.

The next event is the turn to the SW in what appears direct Langkawi. As I said in the first post the pilot probably had this in his head already. Someone said why didn't he go to KBR on north coast of Malaysia which was closer. That's a 6,000 foot runway and to put that plane down on a 6,000 foot strip at night uncertain of your aircraft's entire systems is not an option. I would expect the pilot would consider ditching before a 6,000 runway if still above maximum landing weight which he likely was. The safest runway in the region to make the approach was certainly Langkawi - no obstacles over water with a long flat approach. In my humble opinion this 18,000 hour pilot knew this instinctively.

 

Reports of altitude fluctuations. Well given that this was not transponder generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let's accept for a minute he might have ascended to 45,000 in a last ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. It is an acceptable scenario in my opinion. At 45,000 it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall and recovery at 25,000. The pilot may even have been diving the aircraft to extinguish flames. All entirely possible.

 

But going to 45,000 in a hijack scenario doesn't make any good sense to me.

 

The question of the time the plane flew on.

On departing Kuala he would have had fuel for Beijing and alternate probably Shanghai and 45 minutes. Say 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25% in first hour with takeoff, climb to cruise. So when the turn was made towards Langkawi he would have had six hours or more. This correlates nicely with the immarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

 

The apparent now known continued flight until TTFE time to fuel exhaustion only actually confirms to me the crew were incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There really is no point in speculating further until more evidence surfaces but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign the pilots who well may have been in an heroic struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue and were overcome.

 

I hope the investigation team looks at the maintenance records of the front gear tires - cycles, last pressure check and maintenance inspection. Captain or F/O as part of pre-flight looks at tires. Is there any video at the airport to support pre-flight walkaround? Any damage on pushback? A day after I wrote the original post a plane in the U.S. blew a tire in takeoff and the t/o was fortunately aborted with a burning tire.

 

Hopefully - and I believe now it is a slim hope - the wreckage will be found and the FDR and VDR will be recovered and provide us with insight. Until facts prove otherwise, I would give the Captain the benefit of respect and professional courtesy.

Occam's razor?

thats the most rational thing i have read yet. thanks for posting it.

  On 3/18/2014 at 12:37 PM, fiznuthian said:

 

  Quote

Diego and all who have commented - thank you.

 

I wrote this post before the information regarding the engines continuing to run for approximately six hours and the fact it seems acars was shut down before the transponder.

 

The continued speculation of hijack and/or murder suicide and the latest this morning that there was a flight engineer on board that is being investigated does not do much to sway me in favour of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

 

My post received a lot of comments on Reddit as well if some of you wish to read those. www.reddit.com MH370.Now let me deal with Diego's request for my present view in light of new evidence.

 

We know there was a last voice transmission that from a pilot's point of view (POV) was entirely normal. The good night is customary on a hand -off to a new ATC control. The good night also indicates STRONGLY to me all was OK on the flight deck. Remember there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress - the hijack code or even a transponder code different by one digit from assigned would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike is always an option even three short clicks would raise an alert.

So I conclude at that point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong unknown to the pilots - Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electric or electric fire issue than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots were probably not aware it was not transmitting.

The next event is the turn to the SW in what appears direct Langkawi. As I said in the first post the pilot probably had this in his head already. Someone said why didn't he go to KBR on north coast of Malaysia which was closer. That's a 6,000 foot runway and to put that plane down on a 6,000 foot strip at night uncertain of your aircraft's entire systems is not an option. I would expect the pilot would consider ditching before a 6,000 runway if still above maximum landing weight which he likely was. The safest runway in the region to make the approach was certainly Langkawi - no obstacles over water with a long flat approach. In my humble opinion this 18,000 hour pilot knew this instinctively.

 

Reports of altitude fluctuations. Well given that this was not transponder generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let's accept for a minute he might have ascended to 45,000 in a last ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. It is an acceptable scenario in my opinion. At 45,000 it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall and recovery at 25,000. The pilot may even have been diving the aircraft to extinguish flames. All entirely possible.

 

But going to 45,000 in a hijack scenario doesn't make any good sense to me.

 

The question of the time the plane flew on.

On departing Kuala he would have had fuel for Beijing and alternate probably Shanghai and 45 minutes. Say 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25% in first hour with takeoff, climb to cruise. So when the turn was made towards Langkawi he would have had six hours or more. This correlates nicely with the immarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

 

The apparent now known continued flight until TTFE time to fuel exhaustion only actually confirms to me the crew were incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There really is no point in speculating further until more evidence surfaces but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign the pilots who well may have been in an heroic struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue and were overcome.

 

I hope the investigation team looks at the maintenance records of the front gear tires - cycles, last pressure check and maintenance inspection. Captain or F/O as part of pre-flight looks at tires. Is there any video at the airport to support pre-flight walkaround? Any damage on pushback? A day after I wrote the original post a plane in the U.S. blew a tire in takeoff and the t/o was fortunately aborted with a burning tire.

 

Hopefully - and I believe now it is a slim hope - the wreckage will be found and the FDR and VDR will be recovered and provide us with insight. Until facts prove otherwise, I would give the Captain the benefit of respect and professional courtesy.

Occam's razor?

 

Makes way more sense than any other scenarios I've read.