2024 US Election

  On 11/10/2024 at 7:23 PM, cern said:

So to fellow Americans here: 

How will Trumps political policies affect you directly? Like will you have a lower salary? Pay alot more for groceries? 
Maybe more easy to getting robbed by a gunman on the streets? 

He is very unstable and wild but I just wonder how everything will change for YOU personally the next 4 years. 

 

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Hard to say, but if it's anything like the last Trump term my personal life won't change much.

There could be long-term effects like higher prices for health care and if various govt administrations are gutted and/or fucked then it could affect me down the line. I'm sure there's tons of bad shit that we can't even imagine.

But I didn't vote for Harris because of me, I did it because I felt it would benefit the country as a whole moreso than if the cheeto was elected.

I've looked at the stats and in the USA your two parties basically take turns. There's only one time in the last fifty years where that didn't happen. (NB: If you go back more than 50 years it happens more often)

The only variation is whether the 'turns' are 4 years or 8 years (apart from the one time the Reps got a double turn). Over the last 50 years, by year its been 42% Democrats, 58% Republicans

In the UK its much more complicated - in the last 50-ish years

1974 - Labour - 5 years
1979 - Conservatives - 18 years, 4 elections
1997 - Labour - 13 years, 3 elections
2010 - Coalition (Conservatives, Lib Dems) - 5 years
2015 - Conservatives - 9 years, 3 elections
2024 - Labour

By years (if we count the Coalition as Conservatives) thats 36% Labour, 64% Conservative.
In the last 49 years (i.e. since 1975) there's only two Labour leaders who have been able to win any elections, one was this year. The other one seems to be universally hated now.

So in the USA your 'left-ish' party is doing better than ours. Although our whole political arena is to the left of yours by most measures so its hard to compare.

  On 11/10/2024 at 11:50 PM, zazen said:

I've looked at the stats and in the USA your two parties basically take turns. There's only one time in the last fifty years where that didn't happen. (NB: If you go back more than 50 years it happens more often)

but that's just presidents and not congress (senate/house) right? dems had 2 years of control when obama was president. when clinton was president it was pretty much republicans in control of congress the whole time. reagan had many years of republican control i think.  you have to go back pretty far to have FDR type democratic party in control of the whole shebang. 

Thats interesting, I hadn't looked at that level and (not being in the US) havent paid much attention to congress. Ok so that paints a much more complicated picture. The two parties take turns at the presidency but the Dems have to do it with one hand tied behind their back.

For the UK, the biggest party in parliament and the prime minister go together so by that measure maybe our left-ish party has been doing better than yours.

  On 11/11/2024 at 12:02 AM, ignatius said:

but that's just presidents and not congress (senate/house) right? dems had 2 years of control when obama was president. when clinton was president it was pretty much republicans in control of congress the whole time. reagan had many years of republican control i think.  you have to go back pretty far to have FDR type democratic party in control of the whole shebang. 

Yeah which is why that split ticket in dearborn makes me laugh. Yeah we're going to vote for the Muslim candidate for congress, but for president, let's go with the absolute opposite and vote in a fat white chucklefuck of a dumpster fire. Oh whoops, all three branches are controlled by Republicans? Guess how much potential Tlaib has to enact any meaningful legislation now....

  On 11/11/2024 at 2:47 AM, chenGOD said:

Yeah which is why that split ticket in dearborn makes me laugh. Yeah we're going to vote for the Muslim candidate for congress, but for president, let's go with the absolute opposite and vote in a fat white chucklefuck of a dumpster fire. Oh whoops, all three branches are controlled by Republicans? Guess how much potential Tlaib has to enact any meaningful legislation now....

it's all about gaza. it was a protest vote. all harris had to do was break w/biden some or make any kind of effort to acknowledge the situation might have different points of view. i think trump could be worse but it's already "worse". there's nothing left of gaza and israel is wanting a wider war with US involvement. so, trump's "do anything for israel" vibe is about to be tested since he's said over and over he doesn't want stupid endless wars.. though he seems happy to assassinate people with airstrikes or whatever. 

but being pragmatic, i agree w/you. it's dumb to think trump will somehow be better or that punishing harris was the move. they could've voted for her then held her feet to the flames along with all the democrats by organizing marches, being very vocal and visible but i have no idea about these things and can only speculate. 

the bigger problem was 11 million or 13 million or whatever it was.. voters staying home. the dems handled the gaza protests on college campuses really poorly.. harris campaign didn't connect like it should've. didn't talk enough policy? idk. there's a million takes and they all sound reasonable.. but dems already are not learning the right lessons.. saying shit like "we should abandon gaza and stop talking about trans issues"  typical bad take away after losing.. sounds like half of them will become more conservative to appeal to the right. 

I'm skeptical of the idea that swinging more to the left is doing to win national elections. But I'm glad it's not my call to make.

Thinking more on Trump's aspirations of using our military against the "enemies from within"...I don't think it's as easy as sending attack dogs after people he doesn't like. The US military has always officially been a politically neutral entity. As a long-time DoD civilian myself, I can confirm that even I had to take the Oath when I first got hired - that is, pledge to defend the Constitution. To my knowledge, carrying out orders from any one commander-in-chief does NOT override that oath. On top of that, the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 prohibits the use of the military (at the federal/active duty level) for the purpose of domestic law enforcement.

Supposedly Trump wanted to use our military to quell protests back in the summer of 2020 in the midst of the George Floyd murder aftermath, but that didn't go through. A president with the emotional fortitude of a five-year-old obviously can't comprehend that instant gratification isn't congruent with reality. And it's also worth mentioning that our military command structure is heavily bureaucratic, speaking from experience. So shit can't just simply get approved at the whim of just one person.


Semi-OT, but supposedly there's just been a slight increase in odds in favor of the Democrats at control of the House. Votes are obviously still being counted, but that would be a major win in itself, even with Trump back at the helm.

  On 11/11/2024 at 4:55 AM, kuniklo said:

I'm skeptical of the idea that swinging more to the left is doing to win national elections. But I'm glad it's not my call to make.

i think the reason for that perception is the culture war and the decades + of democrats/DNC shutting down and boxing out progressive movements. if those things were allowed to flourish then people would understand a lot of issues differently.. perhaps.. culture war stuff is preoccupation with the right but they score a lot of points on that shit.. but it's really not so relevant to every day people. local organizing and unions coming together to push agendas usually has quite a left leaning result once they get traction. it's how we got this far and it's what the corporations and the right have managed to disassemble over the last 50 years or whatever... 

that ralph nader radio hour is a good summary of a lot of the things that have come to pass and what we could do to move the needle in the right direction for working class people. 

I spent most of my time in the US in the S.F. Bay Area around very progressive people but I grew up Mormon in Utah.

I think what a lot of the progressive left doesn't get, especially people that have lived their whole lives in liberal enclaves, is that the U.S. is a deeply conservative, religious, and militaristic country. All the dems that won the presidency in my lifetime and the 20th century were quite centrist.

If the two key winning issues for the GOP in this last election were the economy and immigration it's hard for me to see how swinging even more to the left on those issues gets you anywhere.

I think the last dem president that had a clear reform mandate was LBJ and he pissed it all away on a stupid war while simultaneously shredding public confidence in the veracity of their government to such a profound extent we're still dealing with the consequences today.

This is also around the time the GOP figured out how effective they could be using cultural wedge issues to get people to vote against their own economic interest and if anything they only seem to be getting better at it. The fact that they got this many latinos on board despite all the unbridled racism from T says so much.

  On 11/11/2024 at 5:36 AM, kuniklo said:

I spent most of my time in the US in the S.F. Bay Area around very progressive people but I grew up Mormon in Utah.

I think what a lot of the progressive left doesn't get, especially people that have lived their whole lives in liberal enclaves, is that the U.S. is a deeply conservative, religious, and militaristic country. All the dems that won the presidency in my lifetime and the 20th century were quite centrist.

If the two key winning issues for the GOP in this last election were the economy and immigration it's hard for me to see how swinging even more to the left on those issues gets you anywhere.

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there's a lot of rural america that is more pragmatic salt of the earth type people who are addicted to common sense and can smell bullshit from a mile away. that landscape has changed some but probably not as much as we think. 

mormon utah vs SF Bay area couldn't be more opposite though ay? i agree that a lot of people are led around by nationalism and militarism but they can be just as easily led around by something else less harmful if the the groundswell of a movement is allowed to develop. not to get new agey or anything.. i totally agree that anything beyond centrism is an uphill battle and will be regional until laws change things and those laws become federal like when regulations happened to protect people and the environment. some of those things happened pretty quickly. others not so much. 

but, yeah, getting in the mind of the american voter is a dark art and i don't think anyone really does it except by intuition and charisma or whatever.. 

there have been people who wanted to change things.. sometimes they self sabotaged or were thrown under the bus.  i don't have a recipe for change but it's clearly something people want and clearly they feel like they're being cheated and the system isn't working for them.. this, to me, means there's room for something positive to emerge.. something opposite to racist dog whistling fascistic personality types. 

regarding the dems.. the messaging.. i mean.. "we agree with him on immigration and had a bill ready to go... but he's a fascist" doesn't make sense to a lot of people, obviously. 

i've lived in miami, orlando, san diego, portland.. all over the spectrum politically and culturally. san diego is quite conservative even though everyone surfs.. there's people there who you'd think were hippies.. they love bob dylan and like weird stuff but voted for GW Bush and are 100% drill baby drill let's get the oil from ANWAR.. fuck the spotted owl etc.. i assisted on a recording session that was a christian band that took all these beatles songs and changed the lyrics to be pro life and conservative policy things and general christian rock type shit.. but they loved the beatles and knew all the history of the recording sessions and had thought son john and paul and how things were recorded.. and the engineer who recorded them got the sounds.. the recordings sounded amazing.  it was fucking weird as hell and broke my brain a few times.. 

miami is diverse, swing one way or another based on which candidate said the right things to different cuban/haitian/etc groups... then there's old people.. and lot's of gay people.. it's all over the map. a lot of places are like that.. in florida and california.. not red or blue but more purple. 

but most people, other than a few single issues like abortion or whatever.. they want low taxes, regulations that make sense, and to be left alone. if all this culture war shit wasn't happening and people actually voted on policy.. .ugh.. 

rambling.. sorry.. i agree on the militarism and nationalism and all that.. it's a shame the country didn't develop a different identity or find another way to be.. i guess that's why the states are what they are. working class people are everywhere though.. sooner or later they'll wake up maybe.. 

It’s worth keeping in mind that this so called red wave was only 51% of the vote so I agree there’s still room for hope. 
 

IMO the most important thing the left has to figure out now is how to fight the right wing propaganda juggernaut. Unfortunately I have no concrete ideas of how this can be done. 

  On 11/11/2024 at 4:57 AM, ambermonk said:

Thinking more on Trump's aspirations of using our military against the "enemies from within"...I don't think it's as easy as sending attack dogs after people he doesn't like. The US military has always officially been a politically neutral entity. As a long-time DoD civilian myself, I can confirm that even I had to take the Oath when I first got hired - that is, pledge to defend the Constitution. To my knowledge, carrying out orders from any one commander-in-chief does NOT override that oath. On top of that, the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 prohibits the use of the military (at the federal/active duty level) for the purpose of domestic law enforcement.

Supposedly Trump wanted to use our military to quell protests back in the summer of 2020 in the midst of the George Floyd murder aftermath, but that didn't go through. A president with the emotional fortitude of a five-year-old obviously can't comprehend that instant gratification isn't congruent with reality. And it's also worth mentioning that our military command structure is heavily bureaucratic, speaking from experience. So shit can't just simply get approved at the whim of just one person.


Semi-OT, but supposedly there's just been a slight increase in odds in favor of the Democrats at control of the House. Votes are obviously still being counted, but that would be a major win in itself, even with Trump back at the helm.

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Just as a personal anecdote, I live a few blocks from George Floyd Square and in 2020 when the national guard was here for several weeks, I gotta say they were not fucking around. They were fully armed and had huge tank-like vehicles and massive armored trucks that would just roll ominously through my neighborhood. They were highly organized and strategic, it’s a whole different thing than cops. Idk what they would do in a city if they were deployed with objectives from Trump instead of Waltz but if they followed his orders, shit would get very real. 

Does it realy mather wich garbage won my usa friends? It's still garbage in the end

  On 11/11/2024 at 7:22 AM, Ivan Ooze said:

Does it realy mather wich garbage won my usa friends? It's still garbage in the end

It matters. 

On Reddit they keep pulling Bernie Sanders now in every 2nd topic.

  On 11/10/2024 at 7:23 PM, cern said:

So to fellow Americans here: 

How will Trumps political policies affect you directly? Like will you have a lower salary? Pay alot more for groceries? 
Maybe more easy to getting robbed by a gunman on the streets? 

He is very unstable and wild but I just wonder how everything will change for YOU personally the next 4 years. 

 

Expand  

He's going to unwind the interpretation of section 1557 of the affordable care act that was recently established, which prohibits health insurers and providers from discriminating against someone on the basis of their trans identity.

I have spent a lot of the past year attempting to counsel trans people who are struggling. The hostility that the education department and federal healthcare restrictions will direct towards trans youths will make it more difficult for me to do this, because I know that I absolutely would've killed myself if I was aware that I could get treatment for my gender dysphoria, but the government is actively suppressing any glimmer of that treatment.

JD Vance's anti-trans legislation from last year, or maybe it was this year, part of it included restricting medical schools from teaching anything about trans surgeries. If they accomplish that, then that might cause some difficulties in my later years, if I need access to doctors who know about this stuff.

If they can get a Hyde amendment type of thing that prevents any federal dollars from going to trans health care, then this will be a lot of impact on my life. Like, if I go to prison, in addition to the risk of being v-coded, I guess they could deny me access to healthcare? More incentive to not get arrested, I guess. Pretty much any federal employment seems like it'd be a bad idea.

In general, the continued use of trans people as culture war thing will have all sorts of effects on my life. There's been some initial polling that seems to suggest that even if people think that Trump is doing too many trans ads, and that they don't think it's an important issue, the overall opinion of trans people goes down. I am going to die in a world that hates what's inside me even more than it did when I was born, and it already has fucked me up, the amount that it hated me at that point. So I don't know what this will do to me. This should be a ridiculously melodramatic statement but it's going to be genuinely true, like there's going to be hard numbers on this.

  On 11/11/2024 at 9:10 AM, Crazing said:

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This is also important

  On 11/11/2024 at 7:22 AM, Ivan Ooze said:

Does it realy mather wich garbage won my usa friends? It's still garbage in the end

I'm afraid this comment and the attitude it exemplifies is going to age very poorly. 

  On 11/11/2024 at 5:36 AM, kuniklo said:

but I grew up Mormon in Utah.

that's cool - one state I would really like to visit. I like the American southwest a lot, have been to Arizona twice and toured the whole state each time, ending each trip at southern rim of grand canyon. Checking out Utah is on my bucket list, want to visit Salt Lake City and go to all the parks and stuff. Have heard there is a park that is not very popular or well known called Natural Bridges, think it is just a state and not a national park, where you can camp out on the natural bridge if the weather is good, probably so awesome on a clear night with no light pollution:

re Trump and military interventions, I hope his admin does not make things worse in the world, middle east in particular, but I am not holding my breath and I take him at his word when he says that he supports Israel, especially since he got like 100 million in political donations from that miriam Adelson hag. There have been some positives to news coming out of Trump headquarters, though, and this has been something that has given me some hope recently:

Southern Utah is in my opinion the most beautiful part of the whole world. I hesitate to encourage people to go there though because it’s already getting too popular. 
 

In his first term Trump tried to strip environmental protections from a good chunk of it. No doubt he’ll try again. 

  On 11/11/2024 at 9:10 AM, Crazing said:

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there is a basic point here but it's worded so cringily I just want to point and laugh. "master the world" is some white man bullshit.