2024 US Election

  On 11/6/2024 at 1:46 PM, Psychotronic said:

She's a person of color, a woman and people connect her with "the establishment / them / those guys up there". People can't afford housing and there is a raging inflation. So they blame set establishment and mistake the other side of the establishment for their saviors and that way support religious nutjobs that hide very transparently behind a fellon that will use his next round of presidency to pardon himself. There's no big questions, as long as Q hasn't reappeared. 

I guess rhetorical questions should be clearer in their form.

Inflation in the US for 2024 is 2.4%. The idea that dems and reps are two sides of the same coin is terrible and I suppose that is where the dems have really failed, is not articulating their policy successes and how they will make a difference for average Americans.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:02 PM, o00o said:

So as the us is now going to become more irrelevant internationally what are good sources on Chinese politics besides the economist? 

i think the China thread i started here is a good start, it’s read worldwide, referenced by politicians and was printed out to become a NYT bestseller 

Inflation is at 2.4% now, but the cumulative rise in prices for essentials is waaaay higher.



Ive been seeing complaints about this constantly online for the last couple of years. People are genuinely suffering.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:37 PM, droid said:

Inflation is at 2.4% now, but the cumulative rise in prices for essentials is waaaay higher.



Ive been seeing complaints about this constantly online for the last couple of years. People are genuinely suffering.

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you don’t say? first i’m hearing of this. wild. if only the Harris campaign had read about this.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:32 PM, chenGOD said:

I guess rhetorical questions should be clearer in their form.

Inflation in the US for 2024 is 2.4%. The idea that dems and reps are two sides of the same coin is terrible and I suppose that is where the dems have really failed, is not articulating their policy successes and how they will make a difference for average Americans.

Should’ve been easy!

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:39 PM, auxien said:

you don’t say? first i’m hearing of this. wild. if only the Harris campaign had read about this.

That was in reply to ChenGOD, but yes, the Dems knew, so why didn't they do something about it? Its estimated that about 50% of that rise is corporate profiteering.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:46 PM, droid said:

That was in reply to ChenGOD, but yes, the Dems knew, so why didn't they do something about it? Its estimated that about 50% of that rise is corporate profiteering.

Which is something Harris ran on addressing…

At the very least, they could have lied about trying to fix it.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:32 PM, chenGOD said:

I guess rhetorical questions should be clearer in their form.

Inflation in the US for 2024 is 2.4%. The idea that dems and reps are two sides of the same coin is terrible and I suppose that is where the dems have really failed, is not articulating their policy successes and how they will make a difference for average Americans.

I'm German, from my perspective both of the american parties are right side of the middle. On the other hand i am about the move back into the area where i came from in eastern Germany where right wing nutjobs got a slight majority in votes, but as we were given a parliamentary system with not just two parties, a coalition of ultra left and mid right are now working together to keep the ultra right at bay. Imagen every party in your country that gets over 5% of the votes has a place in the parliament and they have to work together on topics to make the country better.

The move to the right is move of western society on a global level, that i also can feel here, but having a winner takes all system is very problematic in that fight and one that doesn't force politicians to separate state and any type of church doctrine is even worse.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:02 PM, o00o said:

So as the us is now going to become more irrelevant internationally what are good sources on Chinese politics besides the economist? 

The US is not going to become more irrelevant internationally. Like not at all. The size of the US economy and market means they will continue to be a global superpower.

China is not going to be significantly stronger than they are right now - in fact as they start to come to grips with the realization of their own demographic crisis they will turn more inward to try and fix their economy. But if you really want to read about Chinese politics and political economy, Foreign Affairs, CSIS, PIIE, are all good places to start, assuming like most of us, you don't speak/read Chinese. 

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:46 PM, droid said:

That was in reply to ChenGOD, but yes, the Dems knew, so why didn't they do something about it? Its estimated that about 50% of that rise is corporate profiteering.

i was being a smartass… i actually live here in the US so uh yeah, i know about the inflation in the US. we know it’s been bad. Trump wouldn’t have handled it any better than Biden/Harris did.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:46 PM, droid said:

That was in reply to ChenGOD, but yes, the Dems knew, so why didn't they do something about it? Its estimated that about 50% of that rise is corporate profiteering.

They should have taken all the corporate leaders out back and shot them. Yeah. That would fix it all up!

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:55 PM, auxien said:

i was being a smartass… i actually live here in the US so uh yeah, i know about the inflation in the US. we know it’s been bad. Trump wouldn’t have handled it any better than Biden/Harris did.

Trump would have handled it worse, and if you (general you, not you specifically auxien) think shit is expensive now, wait until Trump tariffs come into effect.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:55 PM, auxien said:

i was being a smartass… i actually live here in the US so uh yeah, i know about the inflation in the US. we know it’s been bad. Trump wouldn’t have handled it any better than Biden/Harris did.

I agree, in fact he would have been worse, but they are supposed to be better than Trump.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:56 PM, chenGOD said:

They should have taken all the corporate leaders out back and shot them. Yeah. That would fix it all up!

Trump would have handled it worse, and if you (general you, not you specifically auxien) think shit is expensive now, wait until Trump tariffs come into effect.

I wonder how his fanbase will react to this. It'll most definitely go down a route where he makes tax cuts for the elite while bleeding the general population as much as possible. I'm assuming they will just defend him with whatever reason is being spoonfed to them, seeing this election I really don't have much hope for people's critical thinking

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:56 PM, chenGOD said:

They should have taken all the corporate leaders out back and shot them. Yeah. That would fix it all up!

Certainly, the best solution was clearly to do nothing and allow further increases to the already unprecedented wealth of the rich. After all, no fascist has ever been voted into power because the working and middle classes felt immiserated and abandoned by the powers that be.

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:56 PM, chenGOD said:

Trump would have handled it worse, and if you (general you, not you specifically auxien) think shit is expensive now, wait until Trump tariffs come into effect.

he almost surely would’ve handled it worse, yeah, i’m just trying to give a little leeway to the other side’s arguments. can’t really know what would have happened…

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:59 PM, droid said:

I agree, in fact he would have been worse, but they are supposed to be better than Trump.

see above, but also, not really ‘better’ on the economy because the presidency only has so much sway over these things, tho it is some. Congress / local leaders should have been compensating & trying to work with the Fed/etc to enact better handling. but that’s complicated & difficult w/ a country our size, w/ our sprawl, w/ our lack of interest.

Can someone pls tell me in short what is it that ppl on the left are now afraid of after Trump won the election?
Is there something terrible he’s going to do or/and fail to do? Im genuinely asking

  On 11/6/2024 at 2:54 PM, chenGOD said:

The US is not going to become more irrelevant internationally. Like not at all. The size of the US economy and market means they will continue to be a global superpower.

China is not going to be significantly stronger than they are right now - in fact as they start to come to grips with the realization of their own demographic crisis they will turn more inward to try and fix their economy. But if you really want to read about Chinese politics and political economy, Foreign Affairs, CSIS, PIIE, are all good places to start, assuming like most of us, you don't speak/read Chinese. 

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Thx I also don’t mind Chinese language sources as I can translate them easily 

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:03 PM, droid said:

Certainly, the best solution was clearly to do nothing and allow further increases to the already unprecedented wealth of the rich. After all, no fascist has ever been voted into power because the working and middle classes felt immiserated and abandoned by the powers that be.

I mean if that's what you think was happening, sure. You understand how US politics works right? Like the president doesn't just wave the magic wand and say "corporations, stop price-gouging consumers and using COVID as an excuse!" There is a lag effect with monetary and fiscal policy so any reduction in inflation will take time to be felt.

Also, inflation over the last four years is the result of a lot of international factors, as global trade networks were impacted through a number of incidents (COVID, Russian invasion of Ukraine, climate change, Trump's first round of tariffs etc.). Implementing strategies to mitigate these impacts is not an overnight task. Take for example the cost of shelter - in Canada and the US, houses are built with a lot of wood. So the cost of lumber is very important. When the cost of lumber goes up, the build cost of new houses goes up respectively. Guess what happened to the cost of lumber over the last few years?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081106013

Now the cost of lumber has come back down, but those houses that were built when the cost of lumber was high? They're still going to be expensive because of the builder's sunk cost. Did the Biden administration do anything to help Americans purchase houses?  Yes:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families/

https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HUD_No_24_103

Maybe too little too late, but you know, working with an obstructionist opposition party means getting any sort of work done is difficult.

But of course assisting demand is only one side of the cost equation - the other side is the supply. Supply of housing is usually not something the federal government has much, if any, control over. Municipal and state governments have much more control over these things. Since people tend not to vote in local elections (even though they should, those governments have the most direct impact on your quality of life), those who do have an outsized influence on local governance for the supply of shelter. So NIMBYs, local property developers, and landlords have a much greater influence. Of course taking part in governance is work and not fun.

So you can see pretty easily how just one piece of shelter costs can have an impact on affordability, and why it takes time to reverse that impact. When we start to include all the things that make up modern day life, it becomes clear quite quickly how complex dealing with the issue of inflation and prices really is.

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:27 PM, xox said:

Can someone pls tell me in short what is it that ppl on the left are now afraid of after Trump won the election?
Is there something terrible he’s going to do or/and fail to do? Im genuinely asking

Im not trying to speak for our American friends, but I imagine the worst fears domestically (and the 2nd most highlighted issue in exit polls) are based around the further degradation of democratic norms, harsh treatment of minorities, protestors etc, the continued rise of neo-fascism, and given the events of Jan 6th, the potential implementation of an effective Republican dictatorship.

There are plenty of foreign policy issues as well of course.

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:31 PM, o00o said:

Thx I also don’t mind Chinese language sources as I can translate them easily 

Then you should use your AI assistants to scrape the web and find Chinese language sources. Like just start reading?

Wall Street doesn’t seem too upset.

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:38 PM, chenGOD said:

Then you should use your AI assistants to scrape the web and find Chinese language sources. Like just start reading?

Will do

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:38 PM, Rubin Farr said:

Wall Street doesn’t seem too upset.

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Why should they?

  On 11/6/2024 at 3:34 PM, chenGOD said:

I mean if that's what you think was happening, sure. You understand how US politics works right? Like the president doesn't just wave the magic wand and say "corporations, stop price-gouging consumers and using COVID as an excuse!" There is a lag effect with monetary and fiscal policy so any reduction in inflation will take time to be felt.

Also, inflation over the last four years is the result of a lot of international factors, as global trade networks were impacted through a number of incidents (COVID, Russian invasion of Ukraine, climate change, Trump's first round of tariffs etc.). Implementing strategies to mitigate these impacts is not an overnight task. Take for example the cost of shelter - in Canada and the US, houses are built with a lot of wood. So the cost of lumber is very important. When the cost of lumber goes up, the build cost of new houses goes up respectively. Guess what happened to the cost of lumber over the last few years?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU081106013

 

Now the cost of lumber has come back down, but those houses that were built when the cost of lumber was high? They're still going to be expensive because of the builder's sunk cost. Did the Biden administration do anything to help Americans purchase houses?  Yes:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families/

https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HUD_No_24_103

Maybe too little too late, but you know, working with an obstructionist opposition party means getting any sort of work done is difficult.

But of course assisting demand is only one side of the cost equation - the other side is the supply. Supply of housing is usually not something the federal government has much, if any, control over. Municipal and state governments have much more control over these things. Since people tend not to vote in local elections (even though they should, those governments have the most direct impact on your quality of life), those who do have an outsized influence on local governance for the supply of shelter. So NIMBYs, local property developers, and landlords have a much greater influence. Of course taking part in governance is work and not fun.

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I dont want to derail the topic, so I will just make one point based on your example. The huge rise in house prices in the US over the last few years has affected existing housing, not just new builds so its not simply a supply side issue. The primary driver has been an increase in demand which is massively exacerbated by the acceleration of the financialisation of housing. This is a global phenomenon, we have the same thing in Ireland, and the same reticence to deal with the problem here, with potentially similar results electorally.