2024 US Election

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:04 PM, may be rude said:

yes go vote for harris if you live in a swing state. pa mi wi az nv ga nc

not sure if croatia qualifies as a swing state  but we're gonna watch the show 

Which websites do you guys use to follow the event?

this one looks interesting: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:58 PM, o00o said:

Which websites do you guys use to follow the event?

this one looks interesting: 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

yeah the 538 liveblog is kinda my home base for screenstaring in horror, but really just they bring in lots of good up to the minute sources. i believe CNN does something similar? NYT has before but i’m generally avoiding them

but like ignatius mentioned above, there’s little likelihood that we’ll have the election called tonight unless it’s something near to a landslide

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:58 PM, may be rude said:

from the article: "Driven by a racially motivated extremist ideology, the defendant allegedly planned to attack the power grid with a drone and explosives, leaving thousands of Americans and critical infrastructure like hospitals without power,” said FBI Director Christopher Wray.

the arrest was announced yesterday. not sure how far the person got because it sounds like the feds were on him early.

no mention of the election in the article

so, no

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No mention of it in the article doesn't mean he wasn't thinking about it. The arrest was done as the guy was about to launch the attack, and if he had succeeded in carrying it out yesterday, it would have fucked over the state of Tennessee. Law enforcement/AGs will be very careful about what they put in press releases, particularly around sensitive topics like elections - and the US one is already at boiling point.

edit: of course it's impossible to know what the dude was thinking really, but the timing means we should be more than just a little circumspect.

  On 11/5/2024 at 3:29 PM, chenGOD said:

The arrest was done as the guy was about to launch the attack, and if he had succeeded in carrying it out yesterday, it would have fucked over the state of Tennessee.

the arrest was made nov 2, not yesterday

  On 11/5/2024 at 4:01 PM, may be rude said:

the arrest was made nov 2, not yesterday

"was arrested November 2 when he “believed he was moments away” from launching a drone armed with explosives at an electric substation in the Nashville area,"

So even if he carried out the attacks on the 2nd, destroying a substation would mess up Nashville for more than three days. The dude was an accelerationist, so fucking with the election would definitely play into that ideology. IMO, the timing is not by chance.

Thankfully the dude was caught because not only would he have fucked with the election, but thousands of people's lives could be put at risk by this kind of action.

Anyways - I can't believe how close the polling is. Come the fuck on.

Congratulations on electing your beloved fuhrer dogshit turd, 'mericans! You're the best. You did it.

PS. I'll be back to edit this if it doesn't play out as predicted.

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:43 PM, EdamAnchorman said:

Yes.  I'm going to try to avoid TV and other media until tomorrow, for my own sanity.

next week

  On 11/5/2024 at 4:33 PM, chenGOD said:

Anyways - I can't believe how close the polling is. Come the fuck on.

This may be totally irrational and I have no data to back it up (aside from a few outlier polls) but I have a feeling that the polling data is completely wrong. They weight all their data by a bunch of factors that probably don’t match the real world right now in this batshit crazy election.  Trump is running the worst campaign in history, no one is showing up to his rallies, we have an “incumbent” running on (albeit light) change from the current administration and this is all being weighted against the last election which was during a historic pandemic.  These pollsters don’t know what their data means so they are weighting it to be so close that they can’t be wrong because their reputations depend on it in order to get used in the next election. The people who aren’t weighting their data are showing large numbers in favor of Harris. 

Also even 4 years later, we have more and more people who are voting who are not going to be responding to traditional polling or texts etc and more and more people who would are dying off. 

  On 11/5/2024 at 6:36 PM, exitonly said:

This may be totally irrational and I have no data to back it up (aside from a few outlier polls) but I have a feeling that the polling data is completely wrong. They weight all their data by a bunch of factors that probably don’t match the real world right now in this batshit crazy election.  Trump is running the worst campaign in history, no one is showing up to his rallies, we have an “incumbent” running on (albeit light) change from the current administration and this is all being weighted against the last election which was during a historic pandemic.  These pollsters don’t know what their data means so they are weighting it to be so close that they can’t be wrong because their reputations depend on it in order to get used in the next election. The people who aren’t weighting their data are showing large numbers in favor of Harris. 

Also even 4 years later, we have more and more people who are voting who are not going to be responding to traditional polling or texts etc and more and more people who would are dying off. 

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it all feels quite similar to last election where biden won narrowly though. if the one pollster who published the recent swing towards harris in Iowa is right then that's great but i have no idea.  the polls aren't really making a lot of sense any way. 

yesterday i watched like 10 minutes of the election map stuff where they break everything down but possible routes to 270 and it was immediately anxiety inducing so i turned it off.  they break it all down by different counties in different states.. then the next story was about votes being thrown out in PA based on a technicality and fuck this whole thing.. 

going for a bike ride asap and then have some phone calls to make then gonna trouble shoot some music stuff and hope time accelerates 

Does anyone here do dick rating ?

Guys please let's not let this bullshit keep us from talking about the new autechre albums 

  On 11/5/2024 at 7:18 PM, Wunderbar said:

Does anyone here do dick rating ?

you first! what's your rating?

;d

  On 11/5/2024 at 7:18 PM, Wunderbar said:

Does anyone here do dick rating ?

fuck yeah

  On 11/5/2024 at 7:18 PM, Wunderbar said:

Does anyone here do dick rating ?

I only rate Richards. 

Edit:  for those who don't want to go to the tweet:

  On 11/5/2024 at 6:36 PM, exitonly said:

These pollsters don’t know what their data means so they are weighting it to be so close that they can’t be wrong because their reputations depend on it in order to get used in the next election. The people who aren’t weighting their data are showing large numbers in favor of Harris. 

idk man. I get what you're saying, but T's polling #'s have historically always at any time been in the mid 30 - upper 40 percents. throw in the election and he gets up closer to the 50% mark, seeing as there's only 2 options on the ballot... I know we're armchair quarterbacking here, but I do think the reporting that it's going to be close is accurate. which in my personal opinion, is insane. re-electing a twice previously impeached president, who lost the last election, who has a felony conviction, and all the other crap too lengthy to mention, makes absolutely no sense. but hey that's what you get when huge portions of the electorate believe that facebook, twitter, instagram, etc. are viable sources of factual news content. 

  On 11/5/2024 at 6:36 PM, exitonly said:

This may be totally irrational and I have no data to back it up (aside from a few outlier polls) but I have a feeling that the polling data is completely wrong. They weight all their data by a bunch of factors that probably don’t match the real world right now in this batshit crazy election.  Trump is running the worst campaign in history, no one is showing up to his rallies, we have an “incumbent” running on (albeit light) change from the current administration and this is all being weighted against the last election which was during a historic pandemic.  These pollsters don’t know what their data means so they are weighting it to be so close that they can’t be wrong because their reputations depend on it in order to get used in the next election. The people who aren’t weighting their data are showing large numbers in favor of Harris. 

Also even 4 years later, we have more and more people who are voting who are not going to be responding to traditional polling or texts etc and more and more people who would are dying off. 

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I really hope so. It’s just so insane that a guy found guilty on 31 felony counts is allowed to run. And that even close to half of the voting population is ok with it. 

  On 11/5/2024 at 8:20 PM, chenGOD said:

I really hope so. It’s just so insane that a guy found guilty on 31 felony counts is allowed to run. And that even close to half of the voting population is ok with it. 

that video about trump not being a fascist but actually worse is pretty spot on regardless of the semantics/pedantics of using the word 'fascist' to describe someone.  and how trump basically embodies what america can produce as figure. 

it's quite mind boggling how well he broke people's brains in combination with the internet and right wing media sources. 

it's endless really.. the amount of mental gymnastics people do to justify voting for him or being in the cult of MAGA. .. btw i've noticed various online sources calling it MAHA which i assume is 'make america hate again' or something which seems accurate. 

  On 11/5/2024 at 8:20 PM, chenGOD said:

I really hope so. It’s just so insane that a guy found guilty on 31 felony counts is allowed to run. And that even close to half of the voting population is ok with it. 

These are people (the people aside from the Rs who vote based on religion, guns, racism, etc.) who are voting to just fuck up "the system".  Their lot in life is shitty for whatever reason (maybe they're stupid, maybe they've been caught up in the shitty accelerating wealth gap...), and they don't care that he's a felon or that he's a rapist or whatever.

They want him in there because they know he'll damage the status quo and the system that they blame.  They're really not voting for him as much as they're voting for chaos and destruction.

It is kindof amazing (in a good way) that there's this very very important thing that billions of dollars have been spent on, and absolutely no-one knows whats going to happen.

To clarify: I'm not overly optimistic about democracy but it does provide some checks and balances here, you've got this arsehole who wants to be president and however much he lies and tries to cheat, a lot of it still comes down to persuading people to vote for him. There are ways to cheat (e.g. lying to the electorate) but still, however much money and lies gets thrown at it, there is still a little shred of reality there, in that people do have to go and vote. Even if they can fiddle the votes a bit, thats still only in the margin. I see democracy as a sortof emergency brake, you don't necessarily get what you want, but you do have a chance to kick out terrible people. I know trump sucks and he might get in anyway but imagine how much more he would suck if he didn't have to persuade undecided voters. So all in all, this crappy electoral collage system you have is better than nothing and was hard-won and there was a time hundreds of years ago when no-one ever had a vote on anything. As I've said before I hope Trump loses but if he has a clear win I think you have to grit your teeth and accept it.

  On 11/5/2024 at 9:26 PM, zazen said:

So all in all, this crappy electoral collage system you have is better than nothing and was hard-won and there was a time hundreds of years ago when no-one ever had a vote on anything. 

re: electoral college. it sucks and needs to go. it is a relic of the past that has been taken advantage of by the current era breed of shitty politicians. 

this is a good article that discusses why the US needs to change this - https://theconversation.com/an-unseen-problem-with-the-electoral-college-it-tells-bad-guys-where-to-target-their-efforts-236470

What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?

Not really delved into this over the pond other than lightly rooting for who I like , sooo have some ancient angry yorke forum post.

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:25 AM, ignatius said:

 

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this is a rly good video btw. good channel too